http://www.iol.co.za/the-star/managing-risk-in-gulf-geopolitics-2053849
Managing risk in Gulf geopolitics
THE STAR / 05 Aug 2016
Africa must resist being a battleground for Qatar-UAE rivalry and proxy wars; in this, the AU has a pivotal role to play, writes Shannon Ebrahim.
Johannesburg - The rivalry between Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for geopolitical influence has been playing out in Africa, resulting in violence, militarisation and destabilisation. In order to counter these proxy wars being fought on African soil, the AU needs to understand the power dynamics at play and how they run contrary to the AU’s peace and security agenda. Libya, Eritrea and Egypt are the best known examples of where this rivalry has played out.
The rivalry between the two Gulf states stems from a history of tension whereby Qatar has tended to sponsor the Muslim Brotherhood and its branches in the region, whereas the UAE has sponsored an anti-Islamist foreign policy.
Since 2011, the UAE has invested substantial resources to counter the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Libya. The UAE is wary of the potential of the Muslim Brotherhood to challenge the status quo in the poorer emirates where the brotherhood has maintained a support base.
Qatar’s Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani's vision in 1995 had been to modernise Qatar and make it a regional power. He successfully built the Al Jazeera media empire, established Qatar Airways, hosted Sudanese peace talks, and rebuilt villages in Lebanon and Gaza decimated by the Israeli Defence Force.
In 2013, he relinquished power to his son who has continued to implement this vision.
But Qatar escalated its rivalry with the UAE in the context of Libya, in a protracted proxy war which saw Qatar supporting the Islamist Libya Dawn which has been based in Tripoli, along with Sudan and Turkey. Qatar sees Libya as an important battleground in Qatar’s foreign policy agenda.
The UAE threw its support behind the first UN-recognised government in Tobruk, along with Russia and Egypt. The UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia continue to support Khalifa Haftar who has been fighting in Benghazi for two years.
Not only has the UAE launched strikes against Islamist groups in Libya without international authorisation, but also compromised the impartiality of the first UN mediator, Bernardino Leon, who was given a high-paying position as the dean of the UAE’s diplomatic academy at the same time as he was mediating in the conflict. The UAE has also shipped arms to militias in Libya in violation of the UN arms embargo, with a view to weakening Islamist groups sponsored by Qatar.
Just as they used their financial and military might to perpetuate the conflict in Libya, Qatar and the UAE backed opposing sides in Egypt when Mohamed Mursi was in power, vying to alter the balance of power. Qatar had backed the Mursi government and his Muslim Brotherhood followers, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia had backed regime change.
The UAE and the Saudis had failed to deliver on their promises to Mursi of financial aid leaving the Egyptian economy to collapse. While the Saudis promised $3.5 billion, only $1bn was received. The UAE had pledged $3bn in 2011, but was saying in 2013 the transfer “would take time”.
The result was the inchoate anger of the Egyptian people across the political spectrum at having to wait an average of two hours to refuel their cars, at perpetual electricity outages, at having food prices soaring, and inflation increasing from 3 percent to 18 percent since the revolution began. Within hours of the coup being staged, the Saudis and Emiratis ensured that electricity in the capital was restored and fuel started flowing at the pumps.
The third example of the UAE attempting to exert its influence in Africa is its new strategic military relationship with Eritrea. The UAE recently started construction of a permanent military base in Eritrea - bigger even than the one in Dubai. Eritrea is allowing the UAE and Saudi Arabia to use its land, airspace and waters to wage the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen. Reports suggest the UAE base is largely staffed with American generals.
Given the UAE’s alliance with Egypt, it has also allegedly encouraged Eritrea to instigate hostilities with Ethiopia to punish Ethiopia for depriving Egypt of water due to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. It is reported that Egypt is now so short of water that islands have emerged in the Nile.
On June 12, an uneasy peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea that had lasted 16 years came to a dramatic end, as border clashes claimed 200 Ethiopian lives and an unknown number of Eritrean casualties.
If the UAE was the hidden hand behind such hostilities, it is a serious undermining of peace and stability between the two neighbours which could have dire consequences. The last war between Eritrea and Ethiopia claimed 80 000 lives.
The AU Peace and Security Council needs to examine the impact of the rivalry between the UAE and Qatar on the continent’s stability and take measures to prevent the continent from being used as the battleground for proxy wars.
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Shannon Ebrahim is the foreign editor for Independent Media
The Star
Received on Fri Aug 05 2016 - 05:04:48 EDT