http://www.triplepundit.com/2015/10/climate-change-ethiopia-horn-of-africa/
Climate Change Could Turn the Horn of Africa into a Drier, More Unstable Region
by Leon Kaye on Friday, Oct 9th, 2015
Ethiopia’s farms could suffer if forecasts about long-term
precipitation rates prove true.
Ethiopia’s famine, which vaulted the country into global headlines 30
years ago, has left much of the world with stubborn images of a dry,
desolate and inhospitable country in which to live.
While that is very true of the Danakil Depression, and the country
east of its capitol, Addis Ababa, is remarkably arid, the truth is
that much of the country is green and lush. It is because of this rich
land that as one of the planet’s oldest societies, Ethiopia has made
many contributions, culturally and economically, to the world. One
notable example of Ethiopia’s impact on our global economy and culture
is coffee. Arabica coffee beans trace their origins to Ethiopia, and
now coffee is the country’s largest foreign export.
But coffee, farms and livelihoods throughout the region may suffer
from climate change’s long-term effects. According to a report issued
by Columbia University’s Earth Institute, Ethiopia, along with its
neighbors on the Horn of Africa, Djibouti and Somalia, have become
drier the past 100 years, and these trends may lead to even less
precipitation in the foreseeable future. Less rain, paired with warmer
temperatures, could spark increasing tensions in a corner of the world
that has already seen its share of conflict.
Somaliland, which has functioned as a separate state since cutting off
ties with Somalia in the early 1990s, is relatively stable but
receives little international aid since it is not internationally
recognized as an official nation; Djibouti already has its struggles
due to having few natural resources while a high percentage of its
population lives in poverty; and although Ethiopia’s poverty rate has
fallen significantly since 2000, tensions with Eritrea still result in
conflicts along their disputed border. Add the lawlessness in the
strategically important Gulf of Aden, and climate change could wreak
havoc throughout a region that has been on the steady yet slow road to
social healing and economic recovery.
It is in the Gulf of Aden where Earth Institute researchers conducted
research and arrived at their conclusion that climate change could
result in a long-term decline in rainfall within the region. The team
of scientists extracted sediment from the gulf’s pirate-ridden waters
and analyzed the core to determine past changes in aridity and
temperatures. Cross-referencing information they could glean from this
sediment with climate data dating back to the 20th century,
researchers have posited that the weather will continue to become
drier and warmer in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somaliland and Somalia.
This assessment contrasts sharply with what had been largely accepted
by the scientific community: that climate change, by adding even more
moisture to the earth’s atmosphere, would actually create more
precipitation and create a wetter climate, therefore potentially
benefiting this region both environmentally and economically.
Africa’s past history also nudged the Earth’s Institute researchers to
ascertain that the Horn of Africa is a on course towards a drier
climate. Additional analysis of Gulf of Aden sediment, according to a
2013 study, suggests that the desertification of the Sahara 5,000
years ago occurred relatively quickly, in 100 to 200 years — not
gradually, as was the assumption of most researchers who have studied
Africa’s climatic patterns.
These conclusions add to what many experts are already saying about
climate change: the gradual but steady warming of the earth will have
a far more devastating impact in poorer countries. Such forecasts are
why a self-described alliance of vulnerable nations, or the V-20, held
an inaugural meeting yesterday in Lima, Peru, to discuss how they will
cope with the brunt of social upheaval and economic losses. Ethiopia,
incidentally, was one of the first nations to disclose its climate
plan in the buildup to the COP21 talks next month in Paris.
The Horn of Africa is already home to what many describe as the
world’s first “failed state.” While Somalia’s neighbors have made a
valiant effort in ensuring that they would not suffer the same fate,
these nations are now likely to face even more challenges in the years
ahead as they strive to lift more of their citizens out of poverty.
Image credit: Leon Kaye
Based in Fresno, California, Leon Kaye is a business writer and
strategic communications specialist. He has also been featured in The
Guardian, Sustainable Brands and CleanTechnica. When he has time, he
shares his thoughts on his own site, GreenGoPost.com. Contact him at
leon_at_greengopost.com. You can also reach out via Twitter (@LeonKaye)
and Instagram (GreenGoPost). He is currently living and working in Abu
Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Follow Leon Kaye _at_leonkaye
Received on Fri Oct 09 2015 - 19:16:04 EDT