http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=24441
t's not Yemen, it's Iran
Friday March 27, 2015
Yemen has become yet another Arab nation abandoned by the West and overrun by radical Islam • Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf's Sunni Arab nations have realized Washington is willing to sacrifice them to finalize its bad nuclear deal with Iran.
Dr. Reuven Berko
The Houthi insurgency in Yemen may seem like just another inconsequential, bloody civil war, waged in a poor, dusty, faraway country, but the fact is that this desert nation has become the stage of an asymmetric battle.
The uprising is led by the Shiite Houthi rebels, who are based in northern Yemen, near the border with Saudi Arabia, and are assisted by Iran. Fighting them, albeit barely, are the scarcely armed remnants of the Yemeni army, Bedouin tribes, and semi-political and semi-national organizations.
Other than Iran's attempt to gain control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, which would allow Tehran to close off the area, the Iranians are trying to gain a foothold in Yemen. Their objective is clear: to control the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which is located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the Horn of Africa and which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and impose a crippling maritime siege on the nations at their shores, namely Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Eritrea.
Iran's planned vise grip on the area, through its Houthi proxy, may be far more effective than the flawed sanctions the West has imposed on Tehran. Should Iran get its way, it would be able to completely block any and all civilian maritime traffic of goods and oil as well as bar military naval traffic, essentially cutting off the aforementioned nations from the waterways connecting them to the rest of the world.
This would further enable Iran, should it also be able to obtain a nuclear weapon, to turn into a regional empire. It would control Sunni Islam's holiest places, Mecca and Medina, and would be able to charge a protection fee from anyone crossing its gates.
Despite the steadily escalating threat, the West has remained deaf to the Saudis' warnings. The U.S. and European powers' avoidance policy has enabled the Houthis to seize control of Yemen's airports and port cities, especially in Aden and Hudaydah, essentially enabling Iran to send Revolutionary Guard forces to Yemen by air and by sea under the auspices of "assisting the persecuted Shiite Houthi minority" -- similar to how they justify their aid to the Shiites in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.
The Houthis have recognized that the West is content playing the observer, and they seem unfazed by the Saudis' aerial strikes. Senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti issued a brazenly aggressive warning on Thursday, saying that if the Gulf states dare interfere in Yemen, they will suffer the consequences.
Since the Houthis have seized control of the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, the conflict has claimed hundreds of lives. President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has fled the country, and legitimate state forces are steadily retreating toward the south. Attempts to stop the Houthis have been made more difficult by civil unrest and demonstrations, and civilians often find themselves in the ruthless Houthis' crosshairs.
The Houthis have also suffered massive casualties, but they are still going strong. Since seizing control of the capital they have been able to overrun Taiz, Yemen's third-largest city, as well as its airport, and they have also been able to seize control of Aden. All of this has been done so in a consistent, confident and carefully planned manner.
A game of strategy
Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states are right to be concerned. The Iranian threat is on the verge of becoming yet another empty debate in a conference room in Switzerland, which would only promote the bad nuclear agreement the Obama administration is striving to finalize with the ayatollahs' regime. But the threat is real -- it is materializing before the Saudis' eyes, and it requires operational solutions on the ground, which is why Riyadh decided to strike Houthi forces in Sanaa.
The Sunni Arab states can feel the Revolutionary Guard breathing down their necks, after already invading Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Given the American indifference, Saudi Arabia has turned to its ally, the nuclear Pakistan, to counter Iran's violent moves and nuclear activities.
The Sunni Arab states further understand that the negative shift in U.S. policy in their case spells the Obama administration's willingness to sacrifice their interests in favor of Iran. Their distrust of the Americans is growing, which is why the Saudis and the other Gulf states have partnered to form a joint defense force.
Egypt, who also suffers from Washington's cold shoulder, has been negotiating with Russia for the construction of a "peaceful" nuclear reactor. The Gulf states are the ones helping Egypt's rehabilitation efforts, because as they see it, Cairo is the only true military power in the region -- other than Israel, with which only clandestine ties are maintained -- that can prevent an Iranian takeover of the Middle East.
The violent chain of events that is taking place in Yemen is the trigger for the cooperation between the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They feel the Iranian "check" is transparent and clear to all but the U.S., over the geographical distance and the Americans' failure to understand the different mentality characterizing the regional chessboard.
Meanwhile, Iran is focusing its negotiation efforts on deceit, applying pressure, terrorism and incitement in an effort to destroy Israel. Heading these efforts is Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who is buying time and preserving the conditions necessary for Iran to achieve a nuclear weapon -- the "queen" it needs to declare a paralyzing "checkmate" that would generate deterrence against any future military strike on its soil.
Officials from threatened Arab nations have met with senior European officials on the matter, but to no avail. The West insists on keeping its blindfolds on, and even the elaborate naval exercise Iran recently held near the Strait of Hormuz, which included a simulation of at attack on a U.S. aircraft carrier, did not change anything.
The various nations in the region, including Israel, find it strange that of the myriad of catastrophes and threats in the Middle East, the detached American administration is intent of focusing on statements attributed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of all things.
Violent Iranian takeover? A threat to regional and global stability? The U.S. has more pressing issues to deal with, and their pressure on Israel is riddled with threats and demands for a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The latter appears to be an easier issue to deal with than the existential battle waged by Arab countries against radical Islam and the Iranian threat looming over their homelands.
Received on Fri Mar 27 2015 - 11:44:40 EDT