Yemen and the Saudi-Iranian 'Cold War'
19 February 2015
Project:
<
http://www.chathamhouse.org/departments-and-programmesprojects/middle-east-
and-north-africa-programme> Middle East and North Africa Programme
<
http://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/directory/194935> Peter Salisbury
(Former Chatham House Expert)
The conflict in Yemen is primarily driven by local issues, but the
competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia for regional power continues to
exacerbate the situation and influence the calculations of both sides.
* The competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia for regional influence
is exacerbating a number of existing disputes in the region, where the two
powers are backing different sides - including Yemen.
* This paper argues that primary drivers of tension and conflict in
Yemen are local, but the perceived, and often exaggerated, roles of external
players continue to affect the calculations of the Yemeni players and of
different regional actors.
* The Houthis, founded as a revivalist movement for the Zaydi form of
Shia Islam that is largely unique to northern Yemen, have transformed
themselves over the past decade into a formidable militia, and their
military takeover in January 2015 has plunged the country into uncertainty.
* Interviews with people who have been granted rare access to the
Houthis' inner circle of leaders suggest that the core leadership is in many
cases genuinely committed to the Islamic revolutionary principles set out by
Hussein Badr al-Deen al-Houthi, which in turn borrow heavily from those of
Iran.
* Saudi Arabia perceives the Houthis as an Iranian proxy. However,
while the group has some support from Iran, this is not the same as taking
orders from it.
* Domestically, the Houthis are unlikely to be able to govern the
country and deal with its multiple insurgencies alone. Yemen will also
require the financial backing of its much wealthier neighbours, above all
Saudi Arabia, to prevent its economic collapse.
* The issue for Saudi Arabia and the United States in the short and
medium term will be how to achieve a working relationship with a key power
broker in a strategically important country that is unlikely to feel the
need to serve their interests in the way that past regimes in Sana'a have.
Read it in PDF attachment further:
Berhane
Received on Thu Feb 19 2015 - 14:54:49 EST