The political crisis in Sanaa remains unresolved, with ex-president Saleh
doing all he can to turn the chaos to his advantage, writes Nasser Arrabyee
Friday,19 September, 2014
The ghost of war is looming over the Yemeni capital Sanaa after the failure
of last-ditch negotiations. The Houthi deployed more fighters in and around
Sanaa after their representatives withdrew from the negotiations committee.
The UN envoy, Jamal Bin Omar, started a new round of attempts to convince
all conflicting parties to avoid a devastating war on Monday, 15 September.
Few are optimistic that he will succeed.
Ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh, meanwhile, seems to be completely ignoring
the unrest, busy with other things, and denies accusations that he is
supporting Houthis.
Saleh has been receiving tribal and religious leaders from all over Yemen at
his luxurious palace in the middle of volatile Sanaa, which is besieged by
Houthi fighters who have come to the capital from all directions.
On 11 August, Saleh discovered that an 88-metre-long tunnel had been dug
from a nearby hangar to his palace. The tunnel, it is claimed, was to have
been used by assassins. Saleh tells his supporters that those responsible
for the tunnel are the same people who attempted to kill him on 2 June 2011.
He is clearly referring to the two main enemies of the Houthi: defecting
General Ali Muhsen and tribal leader Hamid Al-Ahmar, who were both allied
with and led the popular uprising of 2011 that ended in Saleh's removal for
office.
Encouraged by the pro-Saleh media coverage of the tunnel-builders'
"treachery and treason", tribal and religious leaders shout and chant in a
big tent erected in the middle of the courtyard of Saleh's palace: "With
soul and blood we will protect Ali."
Saleh answers the crowd: "We should not stand with any party against the
other," referring to the warring parties - Islah Party and Houthis in Sanaa
and Jawf, and before that, in Amran. The daily rallies at Saleh's palace are
covered by Azal, a private TV channel owned by Saleh's ally, Mohammed
Shayef, the top tribal leader of the Bakil tribal federation, Yemen's
second-most influential federation.
These supporters come from the Hashid tribal federation, the most
influential in Yemen, including Saleh's tribe and that of his two opponents,
General Muhsen and Ahmar. They have come from almost every district of Amran
to show their solidarity with Saleh, who has been portrayed as the top man
in Hashid, especially after his two opponents were defeated by the Houthis
in their stronghold of Amran last month.
The war between Shia Houthi and the government (headed by the Sunni Islah
Party, the Houthi enemy) has become an opportunity for Saleh to restore his
popularity, especially after the recent alleged assassination attempt with
the tunnel. Saleh continues to deny accusations that he supports Houthis in
Amran, Jawf and now Sanaa.
"We call for dialogue to save Yemeni blood," Saleh told supporters from
Amran on 9 September, after more than 10 pro-Houthi protesters were killed
and 60 others injured in the second confrontation with government forces
around the cabinet building.
The 75-year-old Saleh is not believed to want to return to power, but he is
working to install his elder son, Ahmed Ali. This effort started in 2004
when the real Yemeni crisis started in a war with Houthi rebels.
When the historic allies of Saleh (General Muhsen and tribal leader Ahmar,
son of the top leader of the Hashid tribe) discovered that Saleh was
grooming his son Ahmed for power, and excluding them, they started to resist
and look for chances to sideline Saleh and his son, as they did in 2011.
The Houthi won the six-year sporadic war that was led by General Muhsen
(2004-2010), and the Houthi took complete control over Saada.
Saleh is accused now of supporting and using the Houthi to settle accounts
with his two enemies, Muhsen and Ahmar, who were already defeated when the
symbolic Amran stronghold fell completely under the control of Houthis last
month.
Now with Sanaa, the capital, besieged by Houthi armed followers, thousands
of protesters are trying to camp out near important government institutions
like the cabinet offices and the Interior Ministry. Some protesters carry
the flag of Saleh's party, the General People's Congress.
Despite his denials, Saleh wants to continue paving the way to power for his
son Ahmed, currently ambassador of Yemen in the United Arab Emirates. The
Houthi, meanwhile, needs to ally with Saleh and his party, whether they win
militarily or politically in Sanaa.
"Without the support of Saleh and his party's members everywhere in the
country, the Houthi would not have won in Amran and come over to Sanaa,"
said Hamid Ahmed, one of the leading protesters camping out at the southern
entrance of Sanaa.
Some liberals and leftists also support the Houthi and participate in their
demonstrations, despite the violence. The Houthi support a secular state
because they know they should always be either at war, to remain (as a
minority) united and strong, or be under a civil secular state that protects
the rights and liberties of everyone.
"When it turns to war, we would go home and leave everything to Abu Ali
Al-Hakem," said the leftist leading protester Talal Aklan, referring to the
military head of Houthi militants.
"Mr Abdul Malik told us in a meeting with him that we are partners with him
in peace but not in war," said Aklan, referring to the Houthi's leader.
If the transitional President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi can avoid all-out war
and complete the transitional period with the Houthi turning into a
political party, then the Houthi would support a secular man leading the
country.
President Hadi is in an extremely difficult situation because the main
conflicting parties - Houthi and Islah - love and hate him at the same time.
Hadi has no strong tribe, like Hashid, and his party is chaired by
ex-president Saleh. Hadi depends mainly on the support of the international
community, which would not help him if Yemen went to war.