Somalia: What Would Godane's Death Mean for Al-Shabab?
By Gabe Joselow
September 06, 2014 8:55 AM
Nairobi - As the world awaits confirmation of whether U.S. air strikes
Monday killed the leader of Somalia's al-Shabab militant group, Ahmed Abdi
Godane, experts debate what his possible death would mean for al-Shabab,
Somalia and the fight against terrorism.
Al-Shabab Timeline
2006 - Launches insurgency to take control of Somalia and impose strict
Islamic law
2008 - U.S. declares al-Shabab a foreign terrorist organization
2009 - Seizes control of parts of Mogadishu and the port city Kismayo
2010 - Expands control across central and southern Somalia, carries out
deadly bombing in Kampala, Uganda
2011 - Blocks drought/famine aid from areas under its control
2011 - East African leaders declare al-Shabab a regional threat; Ethiopian,
Kenyan troops enter Somalia to pursue the group, which is driven out of
Mogadishu
2012 - Declares itself an al-Qaida ally, loses ground in Somalia, abandons
strategic coastal stronghold Kismayo
2013 - Attacks Mogadishu court complex, killing more than 30 and attacks
mall in Nairobi, Kenya, killing at least 69 people
2014 - Attack in Mogadishu kills more than 10 on New Year's Day
Ahmed Abdi Godane rose to power and has sustained his authority in al-Shabab
through a combination of charisma and brute force.
Known as an eloquent speaker and poet, he rallied many to the Islamist
group's fight against the Somali government and foreign forces in Somalia,
and has helped funnel money to the organization.
Since becoming emir of al-Shabab in 2008, Godane has commanded the group's
militant operations, and forged a formal alliance with the al-Qaida
terrorist network in 2012.
Al-Shabab's high-profile and carefully plotted 2013 attack on Nairobi's
Westgate shopping mall - in which 67 people were killed - took place under
Godane's watch.
The director of the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies in Mogadishu, Abdi
Aynte, told VOA's Somali service that Godane has ruled al-Shabab "with an
iron fist" and sought to model the group's global jihadist identity after
himself.
"He was running the organization by himself and was essentially branding the
organization as his own," said Aynte.
Rivals eliminated
In recent years, Godane has consolidated power by eliminating rivals within
al-Shabab, through his command of a personal team of young, loyal militants
called the Amniyat.
His deputy, Ibrahim al-Afghani was killed in 2013, after sending an open
letter to al-Qaida's central leadership complaining about Godane's despotic
rule.
An American-born jihadi known as Abu Mansoor al-Amriki, another vocal critic
of the al-Shabab leader, was killed the same year.
Aynte says "there are no obvious successors" to Godane, and that further
internal violence is likely in the event of a power vacuum.
"What you will likely then see as a result of that is further disintegration
and fragmentation of the organization and possibly the emergence of much
more extremist and violent groups from the ashes of al-Shabab," said Aynte.
Godane took over leadership of al-Shabab after his predecessor, Adan Hashi
Ayro, was killed in a U.S. airstrike in 2008.
Ideology, danger remain
The United States put a $7-million bounty on Godane through the Rewards for
Justice Program - which targets terrorist leaders and their supporters.
But independent Horn of Africa analyst Abdiweli Sheikh Abdisamed says
killing the group's leaders alone is not enough to stop al-Shabab.
"You can kill a person, you cannot kill the ideology. Ideology will take a
long time," he said.
Abdisamed says if al-Shabab finds itself in an internal struggle, that is
the time for the Somali government to reach out to less extreme factions.
He says providing a dialogue and alternative governing structures in towns
formerly under al-Shabab control is the only way forward.
"We have to address underlying grievances of society, we have to address how
can we gain the hearts and minds of Somali society, that itself can easily
defeat al-Shabab," said Abdisamed.
The African Union peacekeeping forces known as AMISOM and the Somali
National Army launched a fresh campaign against al-Shabab militants in late
August to take their remaining strongholds.
AMISOM pressure has wrested control of key towns from al-Shabab, starting
with the capital, Mogadishu, in 2011. But the group continues to carry out
deadly suicide attacks against government institutions and foreigners in the
country.