September 6, 2014: With al Shabaab leader Ahmed Godane dead who his
replacement is will say a lot about what al Shabaab will do next. Godane was
an old-school Islamic terrorist, starting out with al Qaeda in Afghanistan
during the 1990s. He was the one who shifted al Shabaab from working to take
over Somalia to trying to be an international terror operation. This
strategy was not a success and all al Shabaab was able to do was a few
attacks in neighboring countries, mainly Kenya. Ordering more attacks in
Kenya was not terribly difficult as there is already an ethnic Somali
population there, mainly in the large coastal cities. Then there are over
half a million Somali refugees that Kenya hosts in camps near the Somali
border. Godane took over as head of al Shabaab in 2008 and in 2009 announced
he was going international and pledging allegiance to al Qaeda. This caused
some violent disagreements within al Shabaab and after killing or driving
away dozens of senior dissenters, Godane began implementing his new
strategy. Shortly after that the U.S. offered a $7 million reward for his
capture. Since then there have been over a hundred Islamic terrorist attacks
in Kenya killing nearly 400 people. The worst one was in 2013 when an attack
on a shopping center by four al Shabaab gunmen left 67 dead. Al Shabaab
concentrated on Kenya after 2011 because Kenyan troops moved into southern
Somalia to stop the increasing lawlessness on their side of the border.
There are still al Shabaab leaders unhappy with the terrorism strategy but
al Shabaab will probably continue as it has because it is too weak to resume
trying to conquer the country.
A UN audit found that most of the aid money spent in Somalis is still being
stolen, or at least unaccounted for because Somali officials refuse to keep
verifiable accounts of what they did with the money. This corruption is an
old, and resistant to all solutions so far, problem.
The UN wants to withdraw its peacekeepers by 2o16, but that is dependent on
some success in disarming the dozens of major clan and warlord militias.
There over 500,000 firearms in Somalia, most of them in the hands of
families and militias and taking most of them away, in order to neutralize
the militias, is proving difficult. Without this disarmament, the civil war
will likely break out again after the 22,000 peacekeepers depart because the
Somali government is too corrupt and inept to maintain reliable security
forces. Meanwhile the peacekeepers are spearheading a continuing effort to
drive al Shabaab out of small interior towns and villages where they are
still present. When al Shabaab is fragmented to the point where they are
basically small groups of bandits, the local clan militias will be able to
control their own territory again. This will mean the resumption of many
clan wars (over land, theft and all sorts of crimes) that were largely
interrupted when al Shabaab established itself as the supreme power in many
areas. This sort of situation is common to many parts of the world, like
Afghanistan and other African nations or regions. No one has yet come up
with a permanent solution that can be implemented quickly.
September 5, 2014: The U.S. military confirmed that they had indeed killed
al Shabaab leader Ahmed Godane on the 2nd.
September 4, 2014: An al Shabaab Twitter account confirmed that their
leader, Ahmed Godane died in the American missile attack on the 2nd.
September 3, 2014: Peacekeepers and Somali troops entered the town of
Jalalaqsi, some 150 kilometers north of Mogadishu. Al Shabaab had long
operated from this town but fled at the approach of the soldiers and
peacekeepers.
The government announced an amnesty deal for al Shabaab members. Known
leaders are not eligible but most other members are. This offer expires in
45 days.
September 2, 2014: an American UAV attacked an al Shabaab camp 245
kilometers southwest of Mogadishu, killing six Islamic terrorists including,
it was believed, their supreme leader (Ahmed Godane) and two other senior al
Shabaab officials.
The government ordered media to not broadcast al Shabaab news, especially
anything coming from the Islamic terrorist organization itself. The
government has also becoming increasingly hostile (via arrests and violence)
against any journalists that criticize the government. The problem with that
is there is a lot of criticize. Corruption, mismanagement and all manner of
bad behavior characterize the Somali government. Al Shabaab is equally, and
even more violently, opposed to any media criticism.
August 31, 2014: In Mogadishu al Shabaab men attacked the military
intelligence compound but failed. Seven of the attackers were killed along
with five security personnel and civilian bystanders. The attackers were
wearing army uniforms, which is common for attacks like this.
August 30, 2014: In the southeast (lower Shabelle region) peacekeepers and
soldiers attacked the al Shabaab controlled town of Bulomarer, some 160
kilometers southwest of Mogadishu and eventually took it.
August 28, 2014: In the north (Somaliland) where there has been little
violence for more than a decade fighting broke out between pro-government
forces and a separatist clan militia leaving at least nine dead.
August 25, 2014: In central Somalia (the Bakool region) government forces
forced al Shabaab forces out of the town of Tiyeglow and gives the
government control of all of Bakool. Back in 2009 al Shabaab had come to
Bakool and established a presence that lasted until now. Taking Tiyeglow
leaves al Shabaab unable to extort transit fees from trucks using a main
road.
August 24, 2014: Qatar has reopened its embassy in Mogadishu, the first time
in over 20 years Qatar has had an embassy here. Nine other nations have
embassies in Mogadishu (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Turkey,
Uganda, Britain and Yemen.)
August 21, 2014: In Mogadishu a roadside bomb left a policeman dead.
In Kenya police found the body of a Kenyan man who had been captured and
beheaded by al Shabaab. The man was a Christian who was taken near the
border with three Moslem companions (who were released on the 20th.)
August 20, 2014: Somalia has asked that no more peacekeepers from central or
western Africa come to Somalia for a while. This is all about fear that the
Ebola Virus outbreak in West Africa spreading to Somalia. Such a form of
disease transmission via peacekeepers is not new or unique. In 2010 Haiti
was hit with a new strain of Cholera that first appeared in Indonesia in
1961 and had spread around the world since then but never to Haiti. In fact,
Haiti had never experienced any Cholera in all of its recorded history.
While Ebola Virus does not spread as rapidly as Cholera, it is more likely
to be fatal. Ebola is named after the Ebola River in northern Congo and this
is where the first cases were identified in 1976. There have been no cases
in Somalia although there was an outbreak in nearby Uganda in 2007. That
outbreak killed 158 while an earlier one in 2001 killed nearly 500. Disease
is a huge problem in developing countries and Central Africa is one of the
world's "disease incubators." Medical skills are scarce in most developing
countries. The loss of medical personnel to an epidemic not only has
immediate effects (ie, fewer doctors and nurses to treat victims), but the
loss degrades long-term development efforts.
August 17, 2014: Mohamed Garfanji a retired, but still wanted (by Western
governments) pirate gang leader was arrested in Mogadishu. There was no
fight, despite the presence of several well-armed Garfanji bodyguards.
Garfanji thought he was safe in Somalia, but it appears the U.S. was
tracking him and played a role in the arrest.
August 16, 2014: In central Somalia (Beledweyne) a soldier died when his
home was attacked by gunmen, who stole the soldiers' assault rifle and then
fled as other soldiers arrived. There was a brief gun battle, which left a
civilian bystander dead.