Attack on Somali Islamist leader seen triggering power struggle
Thu Sep 4, 2014 6:40am GMT
* Death of al Shabaab leader yet to be confirmed
* With no obvious successor, infighting could follow
* Godane's autocratic style drew critics in al Shabaab (Recasts)
By Edmund Blair and Drazen Jorgic
NAIROBI, Sept 3 (Reuters) - A hail of U.S. missiles aimed at the leader of
Somalia's al Shabaab militants may have left a gaping hole in the group's
leadership, potentially the biggest challenge to its unity since it emerged
as a fighting force eight years ago.
Washington said it was still checking to see whether its laser-guided attack
on Monday killed Ahmed Godane, who aligned al Shabaab with al Qaeda and
authorized the group's deadly raid on a Nairobi shopping mall last year.
A U.S. government source on Wednesday said it was looking into a tweet from
what it believed was a legitimate al Shabaab account confirming the death.
If confirmed, experts say there is a real chance the death of the man who
ruled the group with an iron fist and left no obvious successors would
trigger infighting or the formation of smaller, potentially more dangerous
splinter movements.
"If ... he is in fact dead, it is a game changer in many ways for al
Shabaab," said Abdi Aynte, director of the Heritage Institute for Policy
Studies in Mogadishu, the Somali capital.
"What is likely to happen is a struggle for power," he said. Fragmentation
was also possible in the absence of a leader with Godane's experience and
ruthless approach to dissent.
Somalia's government, with support from African peacekeepers and Western
intelligence, has battled to curb al Shabaab's influence and drive the group
from areas it has continued to control since it was expelled from Mogadishu
in 2011.
Western governments and neighbouring countries want to neutralize a group
they say has exploited Somalia's chaos to train foreign fighters.
"LONG-LASTING WAR"
Kenya, which has deployed troops with the African Union force AMISOM to
quash the Islamist rebels, felt the impact of al Shabaab's reach last
September when gunmen from the group launched an attack on the Westgate
mall, leaving 67 dead.
"Take your troops out or prepare for a long-lasting war, blood, destruction
and evacuation," Godane, believed to be in his 40s, said shortly after the
four-day assault.
Godane, whose studies took him in the late 1990s to Pakistan and probably
from there on a stint to Afghanistan, where the shadow of Osama Bin Laden
still loomed large, is not the first al Shabaab leader to be targeted by the
U.S. military.
In 2008, his predecessor, Aden Hashi Ayro, was killed in a similar U.S.
raid. A day or two after that, Godane was declared head by al Shabaab's
shura council, at the time an influential body in the group.
War-weary Somalis worry al Shabaab could again recover from a blow to its
leadership.
"This is a strategic ideology which cannot be destroyed by the elimination
of an individual," said Hussein Biihi, an elder in the Lower Shabelle region
south of Mogadishu, where al Shabaab remain a potent force despite a
military offensive by African and Somali troops to recapture towns and
territory.
But a new leader may not emerge so swiftly this time.
That is partly because Godane scrapped the shura council which picked him,
seeing it as an apparent threat. Using tactics more akin to an African
warlord, he also killed rivals or dissenting voices, leaving no one in line
to succeed him.
"There is a not a clear, designated crown prince inside al Shabaab," said
Stig Jarle Hansen, a Norwegian expert who has written a book on African
jihadists, saying Godane's "solo game" has made the group's task of finding
a new leader more difficult.
"If (Godane) is dead now, that is serious for al Shabaab, partly because of
his leadership structure," he said.
Despite his autocratic approach, resentment under him had built up long
before Monday's attack. Such differences could flare up as the group seeks
to rebuild around a new chief.
Some opponents wanted al Shabaab to focus on a nationalist agenda instead of
turning abroad, as championed by Godane.
"He has absolutely expanded al Shabaab's targeting to the wider region,"
said Kenneth Menkhaus, a U.S. academic and expert on the Horn of Africa.
"Whether he has done that out of strength or weakness is another question."
MASTERY OF ISLAMIC DEBATE, POETRY
An unnamed "muhajir," the way the Somali group refers to a foreign fighter,
declared "there is a problem" in the way al Shabaab was run and pointed to
Godane's tight grip, writing in a letter published on Islamist websites last
year and widely accepted by experts as authentic.
In his list of complaints, the fighter criticized al Shabaab's secret
prisons and said foreign fighters were declared apostates if they travelled
without Godane's consent.
Few potential successors boast the kind of experience and skills that helped
Godane keep such a tight hold on power.
Because he came from Somaliland in the north and ran a group with its power
base in southern and central Somalia, Godane could claim to stand above
local clan politics bedevilling Somalia, even Islamists who say they oppose
such parochialism.
Aynte called Godane a "shrewd politician" with a strong pragmatic streak,
suggesting his focus on jihad abroad was driven as much by tactics as
ideology. When fighting invading Ethiopians in 2006 under another Islamist
government in which he served, Godane turned to nationalist rhetoric to
rally support.
His Islamist credentials were assured by skills in Islamist debate displayed
even as a young man, but Godane was also known for mastery of Somali poetry,
notably citing the patriotic Siid Mohamed Abdille, who railed against
colonial Italy and Britain until his death in the early 20th century.
Several names are cited as possible successors, such as Sheikh Mukhtar
Robow, also known as Abu Mansour, who has previously acted as a spokesman
for the group. But experts say al Shabaab's leadership structure remains
difficult to read.
Even a vacuum in leadership or a struggle for control is unlikely to mean al
Shabaab's attacks subside.
"In the interim, it will actually mean the opposite," said the Heritage
Institute's Aynte. "It will mean much nastier violence." (Additional
reporting by Edith Honan; Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Jonathan Oatis
and Andrew Heavens)
Somalia accuses Norwegian oil explorer DNO of destabilising country
Wed Sep 3, 2014 5:13pm GMT
NAIROBI, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Norwegian oil company DNO and other small
explorers are destabilising Somalia, the African country's petroleum
ministry said on Wednesday, warning it may lodge complaints against these
firms to the United Nations Security Council.
DNO has been prospecting for oil in Somaliland, a break-away territory of
Somalia. The company did not respond to telephone and email requests for
comment but in July a senior official said DNO would not engage in any
activities that threaten peace in Somaliland.
Somalia has been riven by conflict for more than two decades as rival
warlords and Islamist militants have fought for control of the Horn of
Africa country.
The Somali Petroleum ministry said companies signing overlapping oil
contracts and striking deals with regional governments were "adding fire to
conflicts".
"These small companies are destabilising the country and destroying the
international community's effort to build the peace and the security of the
country," it added.
The ministry in a statement singled out DNO, saying the company is "planning
to introduce armed militiamen in areas already in conflict and thereby
stoking old feuds which resulted in internal displacement and harming the
innocent and the most vulnerable people".
The ministry did not provide further details or any proof for its
accusations.
"We are warning those companies that the Somali government will lodge
complaints with their respective countries and the United Nations Security
Council," the ministry added.
Around a dozen companies, including many multinational oil and gas majors,
had licenses to explore Somalia before 1991, but since then Somaliland and
other regional authorities have granted their own licenses for the same
blocks.
Somali officials last months met representatives of ExxonMobil,
ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and BP for the first time since 1991, the ministry
said.
The government said it wanted the oil majors to provide a timeline for their
return to Somalia.
East Africa is rapidly emerging as an exciting oil and gas province after
discoveries in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique.
But U.N. monitors in July warned Western commercial oil exploration in
disputed areas of Somalia and discrepancies over which authorities can issue
licenses to companies could spark further conflict in the African nation.
(Writing by Drazen Jorgic; editing by Susan Thomas)