ERITREA-TIME FOR CHANGE?
By George F. Ward
>From May 15-2014-vol4
May 25, 2014
The country of Eritrea in the Horn of Africa has been isolated
internationally for over a decade. This status has been due to Eritrea's
unresolved conflict with Ethiopia, its role in the destabilization of
Somalia, and its poor record of respecting human rights. In recent months,
several authoritative observers have suggested that the time may be ripe for
new efforts to engage in a dialogue with Eritrea and to resolve its conflict
with Ethiopia. Given the policies and actions of the government in Asmara
and the deep wounds left by armed conflicts in the region, there is no doubt
that such an effort would face significant obstacles. Nevertheless, it is
worth assessing the prospects for moving beyond the long-standing impasse.
A Falling-Out between Rebel Allies
Little more than 15 years ago, the governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea
enjoyed excellent relations based on the alliance of the insurgent groups
that seized power in both countries. This relationship
<
http://africanarguments.org/2013/12/16/time-to-bring-eritrea-in-from-the-co
ld-by-hank-cohen/> began to cool in 1997 when trade differences emerged. The
following year, tensions on the border between the two countries erupted
into a conflict that lasted for two years and left approximately 100,000
dead or wounded on both sides. Algeria brokered a ceasefire in 2000 and
established the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Commission (EEBC) to arbitrate the
exact demarcation line. This effort reached an impasse when Ethiopia refused
to delineate the border without bilateral talks with Eritrea, and the latter
refused to talk before final agreement on the border.
The dispute between the two countries has had a variety of consequences. The
border between them quickly became heavily militarized. Vastly outnumbered
by Ethiopia in population, and therefore in potential army conscripts,
Eritrea instituted a system of indefinite military service. This system has
spawned waves of emigration from Eritrea to Ethiopia, the Gulf States,
Israel, and Europe. Ethiopia, having lost its access to the sea through
ports in Eritrea, has been forced to develop new trade routes through
Djibouti and, to a lesser extent, Sudan. The conflict has had significant
regional consequences, with the two countries taking opposite sides in the
conflict in Somalia. Eritrea's support for al-Shabaab earned it both United
Nations sanctions and designation by the United States as a "state sponsor
of terrorism." A useful timeline of significant events in the
Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict may be found in a recent briefing by
<
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/home/chatham/public_html/si
tes/default/files/20140410EritreaEthiopiaMosleyFinal.pdf> Chatham House.
Severe Economic Consequences for Eritrea
In economic terms, the bilateral conflict has been inconvenient, largely in
terms of increased shipping costs, for Ethiopia, but disastrous for Eritrea.
Eritrea, both because of international sanctions and the autarkic policies
of its own government, has been cut off from the global economic system. In
Africa-wide studies, Eritrea is often listed as "
<
http://thinkafricapress.com/eritrea/analysing-eritrea-known-unknowns-unknow
n-unknowns-and-illegal-market-rebasing-nigeria?utm_source=April+14+2014+EN&u
tm_campaign=4%2F08%2F2014&utm_medium=email> no data." Even estimates of
population are imprecise, ranging from 3.5 to 6 million. The IMF's economic
projections for <
http://www.imf.org/external/country/eri/> Eritrea and
<
http://www.imf.org/external/country/ETH/> Ethiopia in 2014 and 2015
illustrate the contrast (see Table 1). Ethiopia has become one of Africa's
fastest growing economies; Eritrea is one of the slowest.
A Call for Change
In the midst of this situation, Ambassador (ret.) Herman J. (Hank) Cohen, a
widely respected authority on Africa, suggested in December 2013 that it is
time to "
<
http://africanarguments.org/2013/12/16/time-to-bring-eritrea-in-from-the-co
ld-by-hank-cohen/> bring Eritrea in from the cold." Cohen argued that
because Eritrea seems to have abandoned its support of al-Shabaab, the UN
sanctions imposed on the basis of that support should be lifted. Two of
Ambassador Cohen's senior colleagues,
<
http://africanarguments.org/2014/01/14/princeton-lyman-earlier-attempts-to-
bring-eritrea-in-from-the-cold-have-proved-difficult-but-we-should-still-try
/> Princeton Lyman, a former ambassador and presidential special envoy, and
<
http://africanarguments.org/2014/01/13/time-to-bring-eritrea-in-from-the-co
ld-but-its-harder-than-it-sounds-by-david-shinn/> David Shinn, a former
ambassador to Ethiopia, have supported Cohen's argument. Both Lyman and
Shinn have also pointed out, on the basis of their experience, how difficult
it can be to deal with the regime in Asmara. Another keen observer of the
African scene, Tony Carroll of Manchester Trade, has contributed to the
dialogue by noting
<
http://africanarguments.org/2014/01/30/eight-business-benefits-of-resuming-
economic-relations-between-ethiopia-and-eritrea-by-tony-carroll/> eight
potential business benefits that would accrue from the resumption of
economic relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
The initial <
http://www.mfa.gov.et/weekHornAfrica/morewha.php?wi=1309#1309>
response in January 2014 by the Ethiopian foreign ministry to Cohen's
suggestion was not promising. A posting on the ministry's website argued
that a change in the relationship with Eritrea could "only come after a
visible change of attitude in Eritrea, with implementation of a fundamental
shift in attitude, an end to all aggressive policies .." Since the
ministry's statement, rumors of indirect contacts between the two countries
have circulated, but these have been
<
http://allafrica.com/stories/201402170651.html> denied by both sides. Yet
rumors persist, sustained in part by the fact that Ethiopian Prime Minister
Hailemariam Desalegn went on the record in December 2012, shortly after he
assumed office, in support of bilateral contacts. At the time, he said to
the <
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/12/2012125145129652231.html>
al-Jazeera network: "If you ask me, 'Do you want to go to Asmara and sit
down and negotiate with Isaias Afewerki?' Then I will say, 'yes.'"
Prospects for the Future
Given the record of the past, it is difficult to be optimistic about the
future of the Ethiopia-Eritrea relationship. Both governments are deeply
entrenched in their positions, so moving beyond the impasse would involve
some political costs, at least in the short term. On the other hand, both
countries may have interests that would be served by some degree of
normalization of relations. As an emerging regional power, Ethiopia has an
interest in stability. A fall into chaos by Eritrea, however satisfying to
the Ethiopian hierarchy on some level, might not serve that interest. If the
political cost were not too high, clearing away the border dispute and
regaining access to Eritrean ports might have some value. Eritrea's dire
economic situation is probably the main motivator for that country. An end
to Eritrea's economic isolation would provide access to markets in Ethiopia
and elsewhere and might be a factor in attracting investments to improve the
country's decrepit infrastructure.
Although there may be a role for the United States in resolving the impasse
between Ethiopia and Eritrea, that role may be limited because Eritrea sees
the United States as largely to blame for the sanctions regime. The
<
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/home/chatham/public_html/si
tes/default/files/20140410EritreaEthiopiaMosleyFinal.pdf> Chatham House
briefing suggests roles for others, including the European Union, Turkey,
Qatar, and South Africa, in bringing the parties together. Given the
difficulties of the task, success will probably require a coordinated
effort.
Ambassador (ret.) George F. Ward is editor of Africa Watch and a Research
Staff Member at IDA. He is a former U.S. ambassador the Republic of Namibia.
Received on Sun May 25 2014 - 07:31:19 EDT