A pact between President Kiir and ex-vice president Machar of South Sudan is
long overdue. Now is the time to forge it from the fire, writes Gamal
Nkrumah.
Sunday,11 May, 2014
The footage of the United States' top diplomat promising hope, renewal and
good government in South Sudan seems strangely surreal. The problem is that
Washington has not identified precisely which of the two political rivals in
South Sudan poses the greatest danger in the political death throes of the
nascent nation.
US Secretary of State John Kerry warned South Sudan President Salva Kiir of
the risk of genocide in South Sudan if four months of deadly fighting there
is not stopped. Kerry on Thursday discussed the violence with regional
foreign ministers and African Union officials in Addis Ababa. He then flew
to Juba, the South Sudanese capital. Kerry spoke of "unspeakable violence".
Restoring South Sudan to peace and prosperity will be a long and hard
process. On the face of it, Kerry seeks to bring some sobriety to South
Sudan politics. However, his host seems to give him grudging support. "There
are very disturbing leading indicators of the kind of ethnic, tribal,
targeted, nationalistic killings taking place that raise serious questions,
and were they to continue in the way that they have been going could really
present a very serious challenge to the international community with respect
to the question of genocide," Kerry said just before his daylong visit to
South Sudan.
It is not clear whether Kiir is firmly in charge. What is abundantly clear
is that Kerry is keenly interested in salvaging South Sudan as was
highlighted by his participation in the meeting of regional foreign
ministers and African Union officials in Addis Ababa this week.
Washington might well be the magic ingredient that will save South Sudan
from descent into chaos. Kerry had secured a commitment from Kiir who
promised to take "forceful steps" to implement a ceasefire agreement and
form a transitional government. But the fact is that South Sudan is badly
governed and beset by internal strife within the ruling Sudan People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM). Moreover, the internal power struggles within
the SPLM continue to be a drag on the economic wellbeing of neighbouring
states.
The real magic of South Sudan is oil, and potentially, perhaps, water. Peace
talks between the protagonists in South Sudan are scheduled to take place in
Addis Ababa under the auspices of Ethiopian Prime Minister Haile Mariam
Desalegn. Energy poor Ethiopia, like Kenya and Uganda, is keen to develop
closer economic links with a prosperous South Sudan.
The Ethiopian prime minister paid a visit to Ethiopia's southwest region of
Gambella that borders South Sudan, to inspect the security situation there.
Addis Ababa fears a spill over of tribal rivalries in South Sudan into
Gambella, one of the country's least developed regions. Gambella is
inhabited by ethnic Nuer and Anuak peoples, akin to their Nilotic kith and
kin in South Sudan.
The deplorable security situation in South Sudan also concerns Washington.
East Africa is among the fastest growing regions economically of the African
continent. Countries like Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda are experiencing
unprecedented economic growth rates. And until recently South Sudan was,
according to the World Bank, the fastest growing economy in the entire
world. East Africa still has formidable social and economic problems, even
without the complications South Sudan creates.
"The current president of South Sudan is the elected, constitutional
president of a country. And Machar is a rebel who is trying to
unconstitutionally take power by force. There is a clear distinction. There
is no equivalency between the two," Kerry was quoted as saying. The devil we
know?
In the South Sudan political arena many a Machar makes a muddle. Kerry
publicly stated that he prefers Kiir to Machar, but most observers detect a
hidden hesitancy. "The single best way for leaders and people in positions
of responsibility to avoid the worst consequences is to take steps now,"
Kerry was quoted as saying. Washington is impatient with the South Sudan
predicament that impacts other key neighbouring allies of America. "We are
not going to wait. There will be accountability in the days ahead, where it
is appropriate," he said.
Yet, despite the political circus in South Sudan, Washington is not about to
deploy troops in South Sudan. It would rather rely on its East African
allies. Kerry was quoted as saying that he expected 2,500 African troops to
be deployed in the near future, but stressed that a new United Nations
Security Council resolution must first approve the move.
Meanwhile, South Sudan and the World Bank's Multilateral Investment
Guarantee Agency (MIGA) have signed important legal agreements that will
facilitate the agency's ability to insure profitable development projects in
South Sudan. But, economic prosperity is impossible without permanent peace.
US Congressman Frank Wolf warned that South Sudan could become the "next
Rwanda". Wolf has called on US President Barack Obama to dispatch former
presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush to South Sudan to diffuse
political tensions.
The Obama administration obviously views the travails of South Sudan as
greed robed in egocentric political intrigue. "And also to begin the process
of national dialogue - a process by which there is a beginning of
discussion, real discussion about a transition government that can bring
peace to the country," Kerry urged the protagonists. The woes of South Sudan
cannot be shrugged off.
South Sudan's army (SPLA) cannot contain the insurgency. The SPLA stated
that it regrets the defection of senior military officers from its third
division, which covers the area of Warrap and Northern Bahr Al-Ghazal, as
well as extending administrative command support to Unity state, describing
the incident as "an unfortunate development". The contagion of discontent is
indeed infectious.
In insurrection, the rank and file of the ragtag South Sudan army now find
an outlet for their outrage and frustration with the corruption of
politicians, which has soured many South Sudanese. The war in the country is
often depicted as a tribal conflict between ethnic Dinka, Kiir's people, and
ethnic Nuer, Machar's men. Yet, most Dinka and Nuer have lived together in
peace for centuries and cattle rustling occurred regularly among these two
Nilotic peoples, but not necessarily between Dinka and Nuer tribesmen: more
often it took place between tribes and clans of the same ethnic group. The
Dinka, in particular are subdivided into many tribal and clan divisions. A
vast majority of the junior insurrectionist troops do not understand or
speak either Arabic or English, and so most communication is in the Nuer
language, the mother tongue of most supporters of Reik Machar.
Juba Arabic is the lingua franca of South Sudan, and is widely considered
the unofficial "official" language of South Sudan. Juba Arabic has been the
most important umbilical chord with Khartoum, and there are many in the
south that now yearn to re-join the north.
Perhaps in aspiration more than in expectation the South Sudanese have
rallied around the SPLA, and that gives the ruling party in Juba a chance to
make a difference. The SPLA, with all its competing rival factions, must not
throw this chance for renewal away.
So when will the South Sudanese protagonists seal a deal? Everyone active in
the region is hoping for a newfound amity and that includes regional powers
such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, as well as Western powers and above all
Washington. Also hopeful for reconciliation between rivals are humanitarian
organisations and human rights groups. All players hope that Kiir and Machar
will rise to the occasion.