Strategypage.com: Sudan: All Talk, No Peace

From: Berhane Habtemariam <Berhane.Habtemariam_at_gmx.de_at_dehai.org>
Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 13:04:45 +0200

Sudan: All Talk, No Peace

July 29, 2014: Sudan now says that it intends to play a major role in ending
South Sudan's civil war. Sudanese statements have vacillated between
claiming to have a strict hands-off policy in regards to South Sudan's war
to offering to facilitate mediation. Now Sudan's official policy is to
promote regional mediation. These are the Sudanese government statements.
Government-directed actions have been more opaque. Both sides in the civil
war have claimed that Sudan has interfered. There are complaints that Sudan
has played the rebels off against the government in order to weaken both. In
January the Sudanese president said that his government supported South
Sudan's president, Salva Kiir.

July 26, 2014: A Sudanese Islamic militant organization has thanked the
Islamic State (name now preferred by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,
ISIL) for re-establishing the Islamic caliphate. The group, Al Attasam
bel-Ketab wa al Sunna, is an extremist faction of the Sudan-branch of the
Moslem Brotherhood. In recent years the mainline branch has promoted
political reform and begun opposing President Omar al Bashir.

July 25, 2014: The new chief of staff of South Sudan's Sudan Peoples
Liberation Army (SPLA, the national military) declared that repeated
ceasefire violations by both government and rebel forces hinder successfully
ending the civil war. The SPLA chief of staff also said that major
offensive operations by government forces to re-take specific rebel-held
areas will not bring the rebellion to an end. Many of these attacks have
produced short-lived gains on the battlefield but have made negotiations
more difficult. The chief of staff, Awan was previoU.S.ly governor of
Northern Bahr el Ghazal state. Despite these statements, government forces
counter-attacked and re-took the town of Nasir (Upper Nile state). Heavy
fighting signaled the government assault began on July 24. Rebel forces
withdrew on July 25. The government claimed that 83 rebel fighters were
killed in the battle. Rebels took Nasir on July 21.

The Sudanese Christian woman who was sentenced to death for apostasy has now
been officially spared execution. The woman, Meriam Yahia Ibrahim Ishag, has
also been allowed to leave Sudan for Italy. For almost a month she was
housed in the U.S. embassy in Khartoum. Mrs. Ibrahim said she was never a
Molem. Her mother was Christian and her mother raised her. The Sudan
government argued that since her father was Moslem she is also a Moslem.

July 23, 2014: Rebel and South Sudan government forces fought a battle in
the Ayod area (South Sudan's Jonglei state). The government accused the
rebels of attacking its positions in the region. It also claimed its forces
killed 52 rebels.

The U.S. government warned that if South Sudan and rebels fail to engage in
productive negotiations and form a transitional national government, South
Sudan faces an imminent famine. According to U.S. estimates nearly four
million South Sudanese face famine conditions. The U.S. position is rather
blunt. The U.S. says the famine would not be the result of natural disaster,
but would be a man-made catastrophe.

July 22, 2014: Sudanese opposition groups accused members of the
government's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of attacking and
robbing five people in Khartoum this week. The RSF is under the command of
Sudan's National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS). The RSF operates
something like an official Janjaweed militia. The outfit is supposed to
fight rebels in the Darfur region and in South Kordofan and Blue Nile
states.

International observers in Nasir (Upper Nile state) reported that South
Sudanese rebels now control the town.

July 21, 2014: UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) observers accused South
Sudan rebel fighters of a major ceasefire violation. The rebels have
launched a concerted attack to re-take the town of Nasir (Upper Nile state).
The attack appears to be the biggest ceasefire violation since the ceasefire
(Cessation of Hostilities Agreement) was declared in May. A rebel leader
accused the government of trying to arrest a senior rebel commander in the
Nasir area and said that the rebel fighters were trying to defend
themselves. Another rebel sources claimed that rebel forces had killed
around 100 government soldiers in the firefight. Nasir is near the Paloich
oil field.

July 20, 2014: A group of armed men wearing masks attacked the headquarters
of a major opposition newspaper in Khartoum. The gunmen physically assaulted
the editor and several staff members. The editor was beaten unconscious was
hospitalized. The editor had recently appeared on a television show and
argued that Sudan needs to "normalize" relations with Israel. This would
mean recognizing Israel's existence.

July 17, 2014: Dinka Ngok officials and village leaders in the disputed
Abyei region accused the Sudan government of being behind an armed raid on
the Dinka's Gong e Mou cattle camp which left at least five people dead and
two wounded. Some 300 head of cattle were also stolen, though most of the
cattle were later recovered by peacekeepers in the UN Interim Security Force
for Abyei (UNISFA). Gong e Mou is near Abyei town (main town in the
district). Peacekeepers intercepted the main raiding force near the village
of Wun e Ruok. They also clashed with a small group of fleeing attackers
near Nyin a Cuoor (a crossing on the Nyamuora River). The peacekeepers
recovered between 250 and 280 cattle. South Sudan officials believed the
attackers consisted of Misseriya tribe nomads reinforced by members of a
militia sponsored by the Sudan government. The "Arabized" Misseriya tribe
claims resident rights in Abyei. South Sudan identified the pro-Sudan
militia as the South Sudanese United Movement (SSUM). South Sudan claimed
the attackers were armed with Russian-made light automatic weapons.

July 15, 2014: The South Sudan government claimed that that several SPLA
soldiers from the Wau and Mapel tribes defected in Northern Bahr el Ghazal
state. The defectors looted the village of Mayom Akueng rel and then fled
into Sudan.

July 13, 2014: The UN said that the civil war is destroying South Sudan's
economic prospects. Fighting in Unity state has brought oil production in
that state to a virtual halt. Rebel forces and government forces have
repeatedly skirmished over oilfields in Unity state. Rebel forces in Upper
Nile state have probed the Paloich (Poloich) oilfield. South Sudan is
producing between 160,000 and 180,000 barrels of oil a day. In 2011 South
Sudanese fields produced around 350,000 barrels a day. The UN also
estimated that 830,000 people have been displaced by South Sudan civil war.
Most of them are housed in makeshift camps.

July 11, 2014: The EU has imposed personal political and economic sanctions
on two South Sudanese military commanders. Political and economic sanctions
usually entail travel restrictions, travel denial, financial asset freeze
and financial seizure. The EU said it has evidence that rebel general Peter
Gadet and South Sudan SPLA general Santino have ordered their respective
forces to violate ceasefire agreements. Gadet and and Deng are also linked
to atrocities committed between December 2013 and June 2014.

July 6, 2014: Opposition groups in Sudan are accusing Sudanese president
Omar al Bashir of using the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary
organization as a personal army. At first Bashir's decision to expand and
deploy tine RSF in South Kordofan was seen as an attempt to use Janjaweed
militia scorched earth tactics against the Sudan Peoples Liberation
Movement-North (SPLM-N) rebel movement. Bashir was indicted for genocide in
Darfur by the International Criminal Court; Janjaweed militia atrocities
played a major role in Bashir's indictment. Bashir claimed he had no control
over the Janjaweed fighters. He also claimed that the Sudanese Army was
fighting them. However, opposition political leaders said this was a lie.
Allegedly, numerous janjaweed fighters were turning up in the Central
Reserve Police (another paramilitary reserve organization) and the Border
Guards. Now political opponents are making the argument that Bashir's
support within the Sudanese military (Suduanese Armed Forces) is weakening,
hence his reliance on the RSF.

July 4, 2014: Relief agencies are complaining that the on-going civil war in
South Sudan has made delivery of food, medicine and other aid items all but
impossible. They also report that the South Sudan government is very
hesitant when relief agencies ask for permission to deliver humanitarian
assistance in rebel-controlled areas. The government makes the classic
argument that rebel forces steal the food and medicine. No doubt that
happens. However, South Sudan is also under intense pressure from the EU,
the U.S. and the relief agencies themselves to let truck convoys pass
through government lines to rebel areas. Areas controlled by the South Sudan
government also rely on food and medical aid.

July 3, 2014: South Sudan's government said that it is ready to resume
discussions with rebels on the formation of an interim transitional
government. The government also said that it is prepared to conclude a peace
agreement by mid-July with the rebel Sudan Peoples Liberation
Movement/Opposition (SPLM/O).

 
Received on Tue Jul 29 2014 - 07:04:48 EDT

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