Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2014 22:26:04 +0200
SOMALIA: Globalisation has not reached Somalia, but 'junglification' has
July 13, 2014
Reactionary political departure away from sovereign statehood increases the
risk of perpetual insecurity.
Considering the violent political unrest in various parts of the world, many
accept the claim that the 21st century will go down in history as a period
of global reorder, perpetual insecurity and bloodshed. If the grim headlines
of the first decade could be taken as forecasts of the storms ahead, many
nation states are likely to morph into something radically different than
they currently are.
While most are fixated on the domestic factors influencing the unfolding
political madness in some parts of the world, few recognise that it is too
naive to ignore the foreign ones. Especially, since the latter, with their
interests, resources, and strategic plans, present more threats.
One would be hard-pressed to find a single troubled country in Africa or the
Middle East in which foreign elements don't play overt or covert roles to
tip the balance of power in favour of one outcome or another.
On July 8, al-Shabab carried out a deadly attack inside Villa Somalia, the
presidential compound which is the seat of the government, and where its top
officials live. Ironically, the heavily armed militants focused their attack
on the prime minister's residence and totally forgot about the Ethiopian
Embassy across from it within the same compound.
Globalisation vs junglification
These two concepts are merely two sides of the same coin. Stable nations get
globalisation whereas "failed" or "fragile" ones get "junglification" - a
bloody game of survival of the fittest. While the former is a widely
recognised and studied phenomenon, the latter isn't.
Globalisation has democratised communication and education, and in doing so,
empowered citizens around the globe. Moreover, it has expanded markets and
made many individuals, corporations and countries wealthy; but not without a
hefty cost. Specific nations were lined up to play the pawns.
Synthesising with existing domestic political fault lines, junglification
projects lure nations into vicious political spirals to the bottom, or to
the lowest common denominator in the form of clanism, factionalism, and
sectarianism.
As some nation states, as in the EU, consolidate their economic, political
and security frameworks, others, as in Somalia, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and
Syria are actively deconstructing or unweaving their respective social
fabric and national identities. These, and others such as Nigeria and Egypt
that are on a slow-moving conveyer belt, are at risk of being junglified.
Criteria for deconstruction
There are five main criteria that candidates for engineered junglification
share. First is a traumatic experience such as historical enmity, civil war,
or grievances due to rampant injustice, corruption, and breakdown of the
rule of law.
Second, ignorance about international affairs, and how geopolitics and
energy security greatly influence foreign policy. This condition is found
not only in nations with rampant illiteracy and intellectual deficiency, but
in secluded or insulated nations.
Third is the natural appeal in terms of oil and gas and other mineral
resources or strategic geographical location.
Fourth is lack of visionary, patriotic leadership and effectively
functioning institutions. Such leadership is crucial for sustaining the
state by providing essential public services, creating jobs, ensuring fair
distribution of wealth between regions, and cultivating strong national
identity. By the same token, a democratic system of governance is needed to
create necessary institutions that empower citizens and ensure that none is
systematically disenfranchised.
Fifth, is the trace, or as some would say, "the threat of political Islam".
Whether in the form of extremist militants on a quixotic adventure to
conquer the world with their Kalashnikovs, suicide bombs, radical regression
and isolationism, or by embracing democracy and an open market economy such
as Turkey, political Islam often faces orchestrated indiscriminate
hostilities from domestic and foreign elements.
No exemption in democracy
Presently, more countries have embraced a democratic system of governance
than in any other time in history. Somalia is one of them. Out of 193
nations that are UN member states,
<http://democracyranking.org/wordpress/?page_id=738> 115 of them have
instituted some form of democratic governance. That is not to say that all
are bona fide democracies.
While many attribute this phenomenon to the ripple effect of globalisation,
others embrace it as a testimony to the inevitability of societal evolution
and the broad appeal of governance by participation, balanced scrutiny, and
consensus.
That said, democracy is neither a single brand nor a one-size-fits-all,
though, depending on one's political outlook, variations within the
aforementioned democratic nations are viewed differently. Some consider
nations with weak democratic systems as a work in progress while others see
their claims as an affront to liberal democracy.
What is our oil doing in their lands?
Contrary to the prevalent perception, terrorism is not the most influential
factor of foreign policy in the developed world - energy security is. Once
we face this reality, we will start to view our ever-shrinking world
differently.
The 21st century is projected to divide nations into energy
<http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21580630-even-rich-arab-countr
ies-cannot-squander-their-resources-indefinitely-haves-and> haves and
have-nots.
Most of the untapped oil and gas is
<https://www.kpmg.com/Africa/en/IssuesAndInsights/Articles-Publications/Docu
ments/Oil%20and%20Gas%20in%20Africa.pdf> in Africa - in countries such as
Somalia that are considered anarchic, corrupt, and too dangerous due to
clan-based hostilities. International strategic manoeuvring is already in
full force.
In Somalia, destructive domestic elements in partnership with neighbouring
Ethiopia and Kenya, with their relentless exploitative initiatives, are on
course to prove Somalia's wealth in oil, gas and minerals is a curse.
Junglification poses serious global threat. It is a reactionary political
departure away from sovereign statehood, international laws and conventions
that govern nation states.
And this, needless to say, would only increase the risk of perpetual
insecurity and warfare within volatile states and the parastates that they
bear - a breeding ground of violent extremism.
Dealing with this growing, lucrative threat starts with a broad vision that
scrutinises the domestic as well as the foreign elements that instigate
junglification.
20145911187438734_8Ambassador Abukar Arman is the former Somalia special
envoy to the United States and a foreign policy analyst.
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