Kenya-
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http://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/5697/A_rally%2c_not_a_revolt>
A rally, not a revolt
The opposition is back in business but it is caught between the national
security crisis and the government's heavy-handed response
11th July 2014
The opposition parties may have failed to pack out Nairobi's Uhuru Park at
the long-awaited rally on 7 July but they set out the first credible
political challenge to President
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http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/389/Uhuru_Kenyatta>
Uhuru Kenyatta's government for a year. Their demands centred on the growing
economic hardship, worsened by the raising of Value Added Tax to 16%, by the
government's response to terrorist attacks across Kenya and by claims of
ethnic favouritism in public appointments (AC Vol 55 No 13,
<
http://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/5667/Confused_response_to_ter
ror_attacks> Confused response to terror attacks). The rally followed a
weekend of armed attacks on the coast in which at least 29 people were
killed.
Although the Somali Islamist militia Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen
claimed responsibility for the attacks, Deputy Prime Minister
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http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/3056/William_Ruto>
William Ruto insisted they were the work of unnamed opposition politicians.
'If you are unable to wait for the next general election, you are in a
hurry, you want to make the country ungovernable so you can get into office
through the backdoor, that will not happen in Kenya,' Ruto said in Lamu just
after the attacks.
Three weeks earlier, Kenyatta had blamed attacks at Mpeketoni, which killed
over 60 people, on 'local political networks', although Al Shabaab claimed
responsibility. All this is ratcheting up political and regional tension, a
year after the disputed elections. Then, the opposition grudgingly accepted
the Supreme Court's ruling that the elections had been credible and kept off
the streets to prevent a repeat of the violence of the 2007 polls. Now,
opposition parties want to exploit the government's growing unpopularity.
Leading the charge are
<
http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/261/Raila_Amolo_Odin
ga> Raila Amolo Odinga and his Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD).
The former Premier told the Nairobi rally that the government should 'take
immediate steps to withdraw our gallant soldiers from Somalia' as well as
tackle insecurity and inflation.'
The rally was staged to commemorate the start of pro-democracy
demonstrations against President Daniel arap Moi on 7 July 1990, the 'Saba
Saba' (Seven Seven) rallies, that descended into a violent confrontation
between oppositionists and government forces. Despite some skirmishes
between police and youths in the streets around Uhuru Park, this year's
rally went off peacefully. Opposition supporters said the threat of
terrorist attacks and the risk of mass clashes between crowds and police had
kept many people at home. Fewer activists turned out in Uhuru Park on 7 July
than had a month earlier to welcome Odinga back after his lengthy sojourn in
the United States.
Odinga's return
The rally also marked Odinga's return to frontline politics. Until now, the
Kenyatta government has benefited from a leaderless and directionless
opposition: in Parliament, Odinga's allies have appeared tongue-tied and
confused in the face of Kenyatta's Jubilee Coalition. CORD has not
effectively challenged what it says is government bungling on the economy
and security.
Neither Odinga nor his CORD Alliance partner, former Vice-President
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http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/365/Stephen_Kalonzo_
Musyoka> Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, sit in Parliament. So it has been the job
of Moses Wetang'ula, also in the CORD Alliance, and leaders of Ford-Kenya
(Forum for Democracy), to marshal the opposition in the Senate and National
Assembly. In both houses, CORD's performance has been weak. That was one
reason for Odinga's dramatic homecoming at the end of May. He wanted to
rejuvenate the opposition and galvanise supporters with his call for a
'national dialogue' on the growing crisis. That was immediately rejected by
Jubilee, which argued that Parliament was the place for such discussions.
Jubilee also feared that Odinga, a consummate political mobiliser in areas
such as the Kibera township, would turn to the streets to ramp up pressure
on the government.
CORD's demand for a meeting with the government reflected widespread
grievances but was also a political tactic. Government officials feared that
agreeing to such a meeting would restore Odinga to the high political status
that he had lost along with the last year's elections.
Yet government pressure on mainstream media to toe the line works against
CORD. November's media bill shifted regulation away from media-owners to the
state-controlled Communications Authority and the government removed all
state advertising from private media houses and put it on an online
platform.
CORD's Saba Saba was treated with a total media blackout; the event didn't
attract the numbers hoped for but at least there was no serious violence for
Jubilee propagandists to latch on to. Numbers were also reduced by the
15,000-strong security force that cordoned off Uhuru Park and vetted
all-comers. What went largely unnoticed was the list of CORD's demands,
which included the threat of a boycott of goods deemed unaffordable if
Jubilee did not review its taxation rates; a demand for a national
referendum to address the most pressing issues, including insecurity and
corruption; and the withdrawal of the Kenya Defence Forces from Somalia.
For the youthful crowd, mostly from the scores of informal settlements that
ring Nairobi's upmarket districts, these were not the main issues: they had
expected a radical call to arms and street agitation. They, rather than the
Jubilee government, may pose the greater headache for Odinga in the near
future.
Received on Fri Jul 11 2014 - 13:07:39 EDT