Issue No.1186, 27 February, 2014 26-02-2014 01:56PM ET
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/5521/21/Confronting-the-Renaissance-Dam-problem.aspx
Confronting the Renaissance Dam problem
While options for international action exist on Ethiopia's proposed
Renaissance Dam, Egypt must implement domestic conservation measures and
spur other Upper Nile water providing projects, writes *Maghawry Shehata *
The Egyptian people are clamouring for tough measures against Ethiopia in
response to its intransigence on the question of the Renaissance Dam that
threatens the security of their most important resource, the Nile. Popular
frustration mounted as Egyptian negotiators' patience wore thin in
defending Egypt's water rights as confirmed and reconfirmed in every
negotiating opportunity not only since 1981 but since the outset of the
20th century. In the rounds in 1902, 1906 and 1929 it was established that
Egypt had a right to an annual quota of Nile waters of 48 billion cubic
metres. This quota remained unchanged until 1959 when the Egyptian-Sudanese
Nile Waters Agreement added the quantity of water stored as the result of
the construction of the High Dam (a quantity that had previously gone to
waste). Thus, the Egyptian quota was brought up by 7.5 billion cubic metres
to 55.5 billion cubic metres a year. This quota was subsequently
reconfirmed in an agreement signed in 1993 between former president Hosni
Mubarak and then Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi who, additionally,
reaffirmed his country's commitment not to undertake any hydraulic works
that might prevent Egypt from receiving its rightful share of Nile waters.
But there came a time when Ethiopia summoned the sufficient determination
to shed all these tiresome historical obligations. Whereas once it was
reluctant to participate in Nile water talks or was content to attend in an
observer capacity, suddenly it was spearheading a Nile Basin countries
initiative and lobbying other countries to back a new legal framework that
would put paid to the principles of all previous Nile water agreements. The
product was the Entebbe Agreement, which was signed by most upper riparian
countries in 2010, but which Egypt strenuously opposed for the following
reasons:
- It does not recognise the historic rights of Egypt and Sudan to Nile
waters and, indeed, it makes no reference to them whatsoever.
- It does not recognise the principle of "current usages" as a potential
alternative to "historic rights".
- The upper riparian nations insist on applying the principle of water
security to all countries.
- It discards the principle of prior notification as a guarantee against a
hydraulic project or action that could be detrimental to other countries.
- The upper riparian nations insisted that amendments to any provisions of
the agreement or its annexes could be approved by a majority instead of a
unanimous vote.
- The insistence on the part of the upper riparian nations that any
amendment to the agreement would have to be made after the creation of an
overseeing commission, while Egypt's position in 2010 was that changes
needed to be made through negotiations and before ratification.
Then Ethiopia went ahead to put the Entebbe Agreement into effect
unilaterally by inaugurating the construction of a series of dams on the
Blue Nile and Atbara River basin. Unfortunately, Egypt did not raise any
objections at the time, which gave Ethiopia tacit encourage to proceed with
the construction of the Border Dam on the Blue Nile. It is noteworthy that
Addis Ababa laid the cornerstone for this project, which has a reservoir
capacity of 11 billion cubic metres a year, on 2 April 2011, which is to
say around two months after Egypt's 25 January Revolution. Clearly, the
idea was to exploit the Egyptian focus on domestic concerns and
developments at the time.
What is the solution to this precarious situation? What are the available
alternatives?
Some are of the opinion that Egypt must escalate its cause against Ethiopia
internationally. One option is international arbitration. But according to
international law, this would require Ethiopia's approval, which would
obviously not be forthcoming. Addis has already made its position clear: it
holds that construction of dams on its territory is a "domestic matter" and
has demonstrated its indifference to the rights of downriver nations that
might be harmed by such projects. A second option is to internationalise
the problem in the manner of the question of Jerusalem or the question of
Syria (an option that, in our opinion, would not serve Egypt's best
interests). A third alternative is to appeal to the UN (the General
Assembly, the Security Council, the International Court of Justice).
All the foregoing options are feasible, on the condition that Egypt acts on
them immediately, taking into consideration the following:
- Our strongest card by far is the report of the international tripartite
technical committee on the Renaissance Dam.
- Ethiopia is bolstered by the 2010 Entebbe Agreement and the "majority" of
six countries that signed it. Egypt must take action against this
prejudicial agreement.
- The UN framework agreement on trans-boundary watercourse networks is
elastic and its terms and provisions are open to different interpretations.
- The Nile water conventions signed between Britain, Italy, Egypt, Ethiopia
and Sudan at various phases in history contain clear guarantees for Egypt's
water rights. These conventions are still valid under international treaty
law.
Egypt has already taken too long to summon the resolve to appeal to UN
bodies. The current circumstances of the country should not be cause for
further delay, especially given that Ethiopia is using the current
negotiating processes for no other purpose than to buy time in order to
impose the de facto reality of the Renaissance Dam. By then, it would be
too late, as Egypt will be staring at immeasurable catastrophe.
The second crucial question we must address is do we have the luxury to
wait until that moment -- which is imminent -- that we are deprived of our
water rights? Obviously the answer is no and we should turn our attention
to a number of important water projects in the Upper Nile region.
Egypt should set into motion a strategic dialogue with South Sudan and
Sudan to promote closer cooperation between the three countries in the
pursuit of their water rights and needs. The close linkage between the two
Sudans can facilitate Upper Nile water projects aimed at increasing the
inflow into the White Nile, from which Nile branch Egypt currently receives
very little. For example, of the approximately 45 billion cubic metres of
water that flows into the Thala-Bahr Al-Ghazal basin, Egypt receives
virtually nothing. It should be borne in mind, however, that such projects,
described below, should not be seen as an alternative to Egypt's historic
rights but rather as a means to supplement or augment water revenues for
the three countries, and indeed for other neighbouring countries.
- Projects for the Victoria Nile, Lake Kyoga, Albert Nile and Bahr Al-Jabal
river network. Only 7-8 per cent of the huge quantities of water that
regularly flow through the equatorial plateau reach the White Nile. An
annual 23 billion cubic metres of water flows from Lake Victoria (which
itself is fed from tributaries from Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda) through
the Owen Falls Dam and makes its way through the Nile Victoria into Kyoga
Lake and from there to Lake Albert. Lake Albert, in turn, is fed not only
by the Victoria Nile leading from Kyoga Lake but also from the south by the
Samliki, which runs through the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and
which feeds Lake Albert with an additional four billion cubic metres. Thus,
around 26 billion cubic metres of water flows from this lake into the
Albert Nile which winds its way northward through Uganda into South Sudan
where it becomes the Bahr Al-Jabal. Yet, this portion of the White Nile
receives only five billion cubic metres per year from the Albert Nile
waters. The White Nile is fed by other tributaries, collecting about 31
billion cubic metres annually at Manjala, but of this only an estimated 12
billion reaches Khartoum where the White Nile joins the Blue Nile from
Ethiopia.
The major cause of water loss from the Victoria-Kyoga-Albert river complex
is that much of the water is trapped in surrounding marshes and then lost
due to evaporation and transpiration. One project, focusing on the Victoria
Nile-Lake Kyoga section, aims to channel the water from the marshes back
into the river course. It has the potential to increase the flow of water
from Kyoga into Lake Albert by an estimated 21 billion cubic metres per
year. Similar water diversion, canalisation and levee construction projects
are envisioned for the Albert Nile-Bahr Al-Jabal and have the potential to
at least quadruple (or greatly augment) the annual inflow into this
tributary of the White Nile.
Plans for such projects already exist with the Ministry of Water Resources,
but it must be borne in mind that it they should be seen as an integrated
system spanning the entire system from Lake Victoria to the Bahr Al-Jabal
and therefore requiring close cooperation between Egypt, both Sudans, and
Uganda.
Fortunately, the Sudanese and the Ugandans have expressed considerable
interest in such projects.
- The Bahr Al-Ghazal and Jonglei Canal project. This vast river basin in
southern Sudan (about 530,000 kilometre square) includes a vast area of
swampland (40,000 kilometres square). About 12 billion cubic metres of
water a year feeds the Bahr Al-Ghazal system, of which virtually none
reaches the White Nile because of the processes of evaporation and seepage
into the Sudd swampland. The project to develop the Bahr Al-Ghazal basin
could produce at least 10 billion cubic metres of water a year, but it
would require the tripartite cooperation of South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt.
The Jonglei Canal project, which was one of the projects that had been put
into effect in order to produce seven billion cubic metres over two phases,
was brought to a halt due to the civil war. In fact, technical studies
performed by the joint Egyptian-Sudanese technical commission for the Nile
have shown that it is possible to provide 18 billion cubic metres of water
from the Bahr Al-Ghazal system. In addition to the seven billion from the
Jonglei Canal project, another seven billion would be provided from the
Bahr Al-Ghazal water diversion project, and four billion from a
canalisation system that would draw water from the Sudd swampland. On top
of this, another six billion would derive from the Al-Baro-Okobar project
on the Sobat River, the most southern of the great eastern tributaries of
the White Nile. With this project, which would require cooperation between
Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt, a total of 25 billion cubic metres
of water would be made available to the aforementioned countries. Again,
relevant studies have been performed and submitted for approval to the
countries concerned.
Meanwhile, as we pursue the above Upper Nile water projects, there are
projects we can pursue at home that can furnish considerable quantities of
water. Treatment of agricultural runoff water and other water purification
projects can produce an additional five billion cubic metres a year.
Another five billion could be gained by tapping subterranean water
resources in the Western Desert in particular. Water conservation and
management programmes, combined with the further development of our
irrigation and wastewater systems, and measures to prevent water pollution,
would make an additional nine billion cubic metres of water available per
year.
The abovementioned Upper Nile water projects are viable alternatives (as
opposed to such madcap schemes as connecting the Congo with the Nile or
digging two new rivers in the Western and Eastern desert). Plans and
feasibility studies exist, there is interest among the countries concerned,
and all stand to benefit.
Egypt should immediately set into motion the relevant processes of
negotiations preparatory to putting such plans into effect. As for the
water projects at home, they are long overdue. One cannot overstate the
urgency of summoning the political will to carry them out.
*The writer is former president of Menoufiya University and an expert on
Egyptian water issues.*
Received on Fri Feb 28 2014 - 08:04:22 EST