Date: Mon, 24 Feb 2014 22:38:08 +0100
Somalia: Somalis Caught in Crossfire As Al-Shabaab 'Plays to Survive'
By Ahmed Osman,
24 February 2014
MOGADISHU, Feb 24 2014 (IPS) -As the Somali government plans to launch a new
military campaign to wipe out the Islamic extremist group, Al-Shabaab, from
its strongholds in this Horn of Africa nation, experts say that its
Somalia's innocent who live in areas controlled by the group who will suffer
the most.
On Friday, Feb. 21, the Al-Qaeda-linked
<http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/09/weakening-al-shabaab-finds-new-aggression/>
Al-Shabaab launched an unprecedented and brazen attack on the presidential
palace in the capital Mogadishu in which 12 people, including nine militants
from the extremist group, died.
Shortly after, the government and the African Union Mission in Somalia
(AMISOM) announced that plans were under way to launch a military campaign
against the extremist fighters.
Senior Somali government military commander Ise Guled told IPS in Mogadishu
on Monday, Feb. 24 that preparations for "the final onslaught" against the
radical fighters' strongholds in south and central Somalia were "in their
final stages".
"We will launch the offensive in conjunction with our allies against this
group and get rid of [this] menace once and for all," he said. He declined
to say when it would commence.
However, Yusuf Alay, an academic in Mogadishu, told IPS that the group's
"oppression" on locals would increase as military pressure on Al-Shabaab
mounts.
Al-Shabaab has been ousted from much of southern and central Somalia but the
group still controls parts of the country where it imposes strict Islamic
Sharia law, and recruits and trains fighters.
Alay expects the group to start imposing stricter curfews and a blanket ban
on the use of <http://allafrica.com/stories/201402241906.html?viewall=1>
smartphoneshttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png in
areas under its control. Already Al-Shabaab has forced the biggest telecoms
company here to
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ernet-shutdown/> switch off its
<http://allafrica.com/stories/201402241906.html?viewall=1> mobile
internethttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png
service.
Alay also expects more youths to be indoctrinated into the group's extremist
ideology and forcibly recruited to join.
"The radical group enforces a stricter form of Sharia law, where people are
still subjugated to the worst forms of punishments. [It also] levies huge
taxes on the people who are already poor, to finance their activities
following the loss of key ports in the south," Alay said.
He added that while people would be negatively affected if the militants
resisted and fought against advancing troops, in the long run those who live
in "Shabaabistan" (Al-Shabaab territory) would be better off not being under
Al-Shabaab rule.
Mohamed Muse, a military analyst in Mogadishu, said the campaign against the
extremist group has been in the making for months now but gained new impetus
after Al-Shabaab's deadly attack on the Westgate Mall in the Kenyan capital,
Nairobi, last September. At least 72 people were killed when Al-Shabaab
militants stormed the mall.
"We know that there has been a clear understanding of the need to finish off
Al-Shabaab on the part of the Somali government and AMISOM so that the task
of rebuilding the nation can proceed unhindered. So it is just a matter of
when such a move [will] materialise," Muse told IPS in Mogadishu.
Last month, following the United Nations Security Council authorisation of
an increase in AMISOM peacekeepers, nearly 4,300 Ethiopian troops were added
to the existing force of 17,500.
Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research, a think tank based in Kenya, said
in a new
<http://csis.org/files/publication/140221_Bryden_ReinventionOfAlShabaab_Web.
pdf> report for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies' African
Programme that Al-Shabaab would likely lose all of the territory under its
control in the event of a military offensive.
"As a reinforced AMISOM prepares to resume offensive operations, Al-Shabaab
is likely to suffer military reverses - including the loss of its remaining
strongholds," Bryden said in the report.
As Ethiopian troops pour into Somalia's central and southern regions,
Al-Shabaab fighters have fled key strongholds in El Bur, Hudur and Barawe.
Already two towns, Hagar, in southern Somalia and Gandershe, just south of
Mogadishu, were recently recaptured in surprise attacks by Somali government
forces and AMISOM troops.
Bryden said that the militant group has, for some time, been preparing for
an "asymmetrical struggle", as they anticipate defeat in the face of the
offensive. He contends the strategy "would permit Al-Shabaab to survive as a
potent force in Somalia and the region."
"For the near term, Al-Shabaab is not playing to
<http://allafrica.com/stories/201402241906.html?viewall=1>
winhttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png but to
survive, subvert and surprise," he said.
Muse agreed but said the challenges would be manageable if the political
wrangling among Somalis were solved before it became a problem.
"We expect insurgent activities in the short term even if the group is
defeated militarily, and that is always the nature of counter-insurgency
operations. But I think Al-Shabaab can be eradicated from the region," said
Muse.
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