Date: Sun, 23 Feb 2014 00:31:01 +0100
South Sudan's crisis ripples across region
NAIROBI, 22 February 2014 (IRIN) - A cessation of hostilities agreement
signed by parties to the
<http://www.irinnews.org/in-depth/99597/112/south-sudan-shattered-dreams>
conflict in South Sudan has led to a considerable reduction in violence,
although some fighting has taken place recently in Unity and Lakes states.
But the new country's crisis is far from over - some 870,000 people have
fled their homes since fighting began in mid-December - and it has
implications well beyond the borders of South Sudan itself. Some of these
aftereffects are explored in this article.
Uganda
Uganda is
<http://www.irinnews.org/report/99477/refugee-arrivals-in-uganda-raise-human
itarian-security-concerns> straining to host thousands of newly arrived
refugees. It also
<http://www.irinnews.org/report/99494/doubts-over-uganda-s-military-interven
tion-in-south-sudan> deployed troops to South Sudan to back President Salva
Kiir against forces led by former vice president Riek Machar.
A key provision of the cessation of hostilities agreement is the removal of
"allied forces invited by either side from the theatre of operations in the
Republic of South Sudan."
Three days after the signing of the agreement, however, Uganda's military
forces arrived in Malakal, South Sudan, according to the Small Arms
<http://www.irinnews.org/report/99642/south-sudan-s-crisis-ripples-across-re
gion> Surveyhttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png's
Human Security Baseline Assessment. In a recent press conference, Uganda's
foreign minister, Sam Kutesa, said that Uganda is "going to stay for as long
as the government of South Sudan needs us."
The Sudd Institute's director of research, Augustino Ting Mayai, told IRIN
that Uganda's military involvement in South Sudan is directly related to its
own interests.
"Uganda is a direct beneficiary of South Sudan's stability," he said. "It
has minimized security problems related to LRA" - the Lord's Resistance
Army, a rebel group of Ugandan origin now more active in the Democratic
Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic (CAR) - "and created
thousands of
<http://www.irinnews.org/report/99642/south-sudan-s-crisis-ripples-across-re
gion> jobshttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png for
Ugandans. Uganda is protecting its cake."
The estimated number of troops Uganda has in South Sudan ranges from 2,000
to 5,000, including air support and tanks. According to a recent Enough
Project report, Uganda is also the largest troop contributor to the African
Union (AU)-led mission against the LRA, with 1,000 to 1,500 troops stationed
in areas of CAR and South Sudan affected by the LRA.
If Uganda stays involved in South Sudan, the Enough Project
<http://www.enoughproject.org/reports/counter-lra-mission-challenged-regiona
l-turmoil> warns, it risks "drawing military assets away from the
counter-LRA mission."
In <http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article49832> an article on the
Sudan Tribune, the Sudan Democracy First Group notes, "The military
involvement of Uganda, approved by its Parliament, has given the conflict a
dangerous regional dynamic and risks undermining the mediation efforts of
the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD), of which Uganda is
member."
Sudan
In a letter to the AU's Peace and Security Council, 27 civil society
organizations warned that while "the international community focuses its
attention on events in South Sudan, we fear that the Government of Sudan
will be emboldened to further intensify its offensive in Darfur, South
Kordofan and Blue Nile states, with deadly consequences for civilians".
Since November 2013, the Sudanese military's renewed offensive against rebel
groups in these three areas has stressed the humanitarian situation in a
country already scarred by years of war. In Darfur, over 450,000 additional
people were displaced last year, according to the
<http://www.crisisgroup.org/%7E/media/Files/africa/horn-of-africa/sudan/211-
sudan-s-spreading-conflict-iii-the-limits-of-darfur-s-peace-process.pdf>
International Crisis Group (ICG).
"[The government] may also exploit the current crisis in South Sudan to
undermine ongoing mediation efforts led by the AU, for example with the
SPLM-N," the letter added, referring to the Sudanese rebel group which,
before South Sudan seceded in 2011, was a wing of the insurgency that became
the political party now in power in Juba.
The Enough Project's recent
<http://enoughproject.org/blogs/report-forgotten-wars-sudans-periphery-smold
ers-focus-turns-south-sudan> Forgotten Wars report says recent fighting in
South Kordofan has forced 25,000 from their homes, and over 200,000 Sudanese
refugees are seeking refuge across the border in South Sudan.
Akshaya Kumar, the Sudan and South Sudan policy analyst at the Enough
Project, warned in an interview with IRIN that this has serious cross-border
implications.
"All of the regions are facing increased violence and hostilities, but the
Sudanese refugees from South Kordofan's Nuba Mountains, who live in Yida
[site of a refugee camp in South Sudan], are likely feeling the impact of
South Sudan's conflict the most since the fighting has resulted in
significant shifts in the way that they get services and assistance," Kumar
said. "They are trapped between two war zones."
The International Peace Information Service (ISIP), which recently mapped
conflicts along the Sudan-South Sudan border,
<http://ipisresearch.be/bordersudans> explains that the recent fighting in
South Sudan is "having a profound impact on North-South relations and, by
extension, the border dynamics. In this case, the conflict between President
Kiir and Riek Machar led Khartoum to opt for increased cooperation with the
incumbent regime. Intra-SPLM tensions had been palpable before this point,
generating impacts on conflict in the border region."
Not only is this affecting inter-state and communal relationships in the
border, such as trade and pastoral movements, but the Small Arms Survey
reported that the SPLM-N was involved in the fighting in Malakal, raising
concerns that South Sudan's conflict could re-shape the dynamics among rebel
groups.
"Recent fighting will certainly impact conflict dynamics in Sudan's border
areas," Kumar told IRIN.
Interdependence
Since, as the Sudd Institute's Mayai pointed out to IRIN, "Khartoum is as
critical to Juba as Juba is to it," and "instability in either of the states
means instability in the other," then not only are conflict dynamics
related, but peace processes are similarly intertwined.
"Most worryingly," the Sudan Democracy First Group warns in their article,
"the talks in Addis continue to reproduce the worst historic trend of
Sudanese negotiations: they only include the armed actors, and South
Sudanese society has a very little role, other than to suffer the
consequences of the violence and their so-called leader's political
aspirations."
Kumar, of the Enough Project, suggests, "South Sudan's peace process should
definitely be informed by our past experience in Sudan, particularly on the
need for a comprehensive approach, a national dialogue instead of
stove-piped negotiations, and inclusion of civil society stakeholders."
Exploring the same theme in a recent Foreign Policy
<http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/01/22/peace_negotiations_africa_
south_sudan> article, George BN Ayittey wrote: "The track record for
face-to-face negotiation in post-colonial Africa - and in Sudan itself - is
abysmal. Instead of trudging down the same, well-worn path toward failure,
South Sudan should look to traditional modes of conflict resolution to end
the current standoff."
Similarly, Sudan can learn from the South Sudan's experience to address its
own internal conflicts, particularly how the failure to give concessions can
harden opposition to the regime.
Jerome Tubiana, senior Sudan analyst at ICG, said, "If Khartoum realizes
that military action in South Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile is as useless
as a proxy war with South Sudan, and if pragmatic views on South Sudan
extend to the war areas in the north, the government in Khartoum now has an
opportunity to launch a genuine national dialogue."
bb/am/rz
(image/png attachment: image001.png)