Water worries on the Nile
By IndepthAfrica
In Article
Dec 23rd, 2014
By Paul Sullivan
Without the Nile, there would be no Egypt as we know it. Egypt has relied on
the Nile waters for all of its known history: the great civilizations of
ancient Egypt, of the Pharaohs and the pyramids, would never have been
without the Nile.
Nearly all of Egypt is desert, and almost all Egyptians live along the Nile
and its delta. 98 percent of Egypt's water comes from the Nile, and the
country currently uses 98 percent of that water. Between 60 and 70 percent
of this water flows to Egypt from the Blue Nile, which is fed by rains in
the mountains of Ethiopia. There is little leeway for Egypt if the waters of
the Blue Nile were significantly diminished.
Ethiopia is about 40 percent finished with the Great Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam, or GERD, which is on the Blue Nile, the major source of water for
Egypt. Egypt is worried. It should be.
The reservoir of water to be filled behind the GERD could be as large as 75
cubic kilometers of water, which is much larger than Egypt's Nile allocation
of 55 cubic kilometers of water dating back to a 1959 treaty. This reservoir
is also greater than one-half of the size of Lake Nasser, which is Egypt's
major "bank" of water in case of droughts.
When there were major droughts in Ethiopia in the 1980s, water flows to
Egypt diminished drastically, electricity production from hydropower dams in
Egypt declined, and water for irrigation of crops to feed Egyptians was
threatened. When Egyptians think of what might happen if the GERD reservoir
is filled too quickly, they can remember what happened in the 1980s. They
may also fear that Ethiopia will use the GERD reservoir not only for
electricity but also for irrigation - even if the government claims now that
they never would.
If there are droughts in Ethiopia in the future, it is a near guarantee that
Ethiopia will use the water from the GERD reservoir for irrigation. It would
be politically impossible for the government not to. Once that water is
taken out of the Blue Nile, then Egypt has even less to work with. With the
construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia controls the
tap of the Blue Nile.
The population of Egypt is expected to grow from its current 87 million to
145 million in 2050. During that time, the population of Ethiopia is
expected grow from 94 million to 167 million. Let's not forget Sudan, a
country along the Nile between Ethiopia and Egypt that is expected to grow
from its present 37 million people to 77 million in 2050. These rapidly
growing populations will need a lot more water for agriculture, industry,
homes, schools, hospitals and more. As these countries develop their
economies, their populations will use more water-intensive foods, such as
meats. They will also increase their reliance on water-intensive energy,
such as thermal electricity.
Climate change could act as a significant stress multiplier as rains and
Nile River become less predictable and possibly lead to increased drought.
There are various competing treaties, UN Conventions and agreements
regulating water sharing that could be applied on the Blue Nile. But none of
these has any enforcement mechanism to back them up.
The United States has considerable national interests in the peaceful
development of the nations along the Nile. It has national interests in the
continuing development of Egypt. Camp David comes to mind. Terrorism also
comes to mind.
A serious water problem in Egypt could spur greater social unrest in Egypt
and could act as a recruiting tool for terror groups. It could also bring
back the Muslim Brotherhood. And that would be a nightmare considering what
is happening with ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah and the various extremist groups in
Libya, as well as growing extremism in Sudan. Let's remember that Egypt is
on the Suez Canal and is in a vital strategic location for many other
reasons.
For now, the U.S. also needs to help ensure that the Great Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam reservoir is filled in a manner that does not put Egypt
under increased water stress.
What happens with the GERD can be precedence for future peace or conflict in
the region. Water can be for peace and prosperity. Water can be for war. The
time for finding a better way of dealing with water on the Nile is now.
Sullivan is a professor of Economics at the National Defense University and
adjunct professor of Secjurity Studies at Georgetown University. All
opinions expressed are Professor Sullivan's alone.
Received on Wed Dec 24 2014 - 10:35:11 EST