October 26, 2014: The South Sudan civil war that began in December 2013 has
led to over 15 percent of the 12 million South Sudanese being forced to flee
their homes to escape the violence (gunfire as well as rape and looting).
Over 100,000 of these refugees sought safety in or near UN peacekeeper
camps. Nearly half the population is suffering from severe shortages of food
or housing. Over 50,000 have fled to Kenya and more will follow. The
economy, weak to begin with, is further cripplied by all the violence. Oil
production, the main source of government income (along with foreign aid) is
down nearly 50 percent (to 160,000 barrels a day). Getting accurate data on
the damage is difficult because there are few roads and lots of trigger
happy young men out there with guns. This limits the mobility of reporters
or even UN investigators. The fighting has killed over 10,000 so far but it
is difficult to get accurate numbers. It is also difficult to distinguish
between deaths from the civil war and from those involving old tribal feuds
and an increase in cattle stealing by men with newly acquired firearms.
These cattle raids have long been common in the region but were not as
deadly before the arrival of cheap firearms in the 1990s (as Cold War era
armories in former communist nations were sold off at bargain prices by
criminals and corrupt officials). Before the civil war the police and army
could be expected to go after tribesmen who slaughtered a lot of people
during a cattle raid. Now the security forces are busy fighting each other
and the armed cattle thieves are operating with impunity and inflicting
heavy casualties.
There have been some novel suggestions in South Sudan about how to halt the
fighting. One recent idea relies on an idea that has been around for a long
time. Some 2,500 years ago in Greece playright Aristophanes created and
presented a comedy called "Lysistrata" in which the women of Athens and
Sparta decide to withhold sex until their men in an effort to halt the
seemingly endless Peloponnesian War. A group of South Sudanese women peace
activists appear to have read the play. The women activists, during a
mid-October meeting in the capital of Juba, issued a statement calling on
South Sudanese women to deny their husbands sex until the civil war ends.
Several of the women currently serve or have served in South Sudan's
government. One prominent member of the group said that the women have a
very serious goal: to "advance the cause of peace, healing and
reconciliation." Critics immediately dismissed the "no sex" statement as
ineffective and a stunt. However, if framed as a media gambit to attract
attention to an activist organization that is urging negotiators to reach a
permanent peace settlement, then the "sex strike" ploy was reasonably
successful. There are potential downsides. In "Lysistrata" the no-sex
campaign ignites a war (but a very funny one!) between the sexes. (Austin
Bay)
October 23, 2014: Raiders in South Sudan's Jonglei state stole 200 cattle in
the Bor county area. The South Sudan government described the theft as
regrettable and promised that the thieves will be arrested and brought to
justice. The raid was the first large-scale cattle theft since former rebel
leader David Yau Yau signed a peace deal with the South Sudan government.
Yau Yau is an ethnic Murle. A South Sudan official reported that people
attempting to trail the stolen herd found hoofmarks leading towards the
Pibor area, which is a predominantly Murle tribal region.
October 22, 2014: No surprise here: Sudan's ruling National Congress Party
(NCP) has announced that Sudan's current president, Omar al-Bashir, will be
the NCP presidential condidate in the April 2015 national elections.
October 21, 2014: Mediators working for East Africa's Inter-Governmental
Authority on Development (IGAD) told journalists that they see progress in
negotiations between South Sudan's government and rebels. The IGAD
statement is very different from October 6 when talks were suspended.
Mediators said the most positive news was that the government and rebels
have agreed to "the principle of federalism" as the basis for governing the
country. The government and rebels have discussed some very specific issues
regarding the structure of a transitional government, to include the size of
the parliament and size of the cabinet. One difficult issue is the "dispute
resolution mechanism" governing the duties and decisions of the transitional
government's executive branch (ie, the president). IGAD's current chief
negotiator is Seyoum Mesfin, who once served as Ethiopia's foreign minister.
October 17, 2014: Minni Minnawi, commander of the Sudan Liberation
Movement-Minni Minnawi (SLM-MM) has relieved four of his lieutenants.
Minnawi accused his subordinates of treason, sabotage and of providing Sudan
intelligence services with information. The subordinate commanders had
accused Minnawi of corruption and nepotism. One of Minnawi's former
subordinates denied Minnawi's accusations. Yes, an SLM-MM splinter faction
has formed, but the faction's leaders are demanding reforms in the
organization.
October 16, 2014: The South Sudan government denied rebel allegations that
Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) ethnic Dinka soldiers murdered a group
of SPLA ethnic Nuer soldiers in Upper Nile state. The government called the
allegations false and said the allegations were propaganda intended to seed
suspicion within the SPLA.
October 14, 2014: South Sudan's government has signed a joint military
cooperation agreement with Uganda. Uganda described the agreement as a
"long-term" accord. Uganda has agreed to buy weapons and military equipment
for South Sudan. Uganda claimed that the military cooperation deal does not
violate South Sudan's ceasefire agreement. Over the past two months, rumors
spread through South Sudan to the effect that the government, led by Salva
Kiir, would collapse if the Ugandan Army withdrew from South Sudan. The
rumors began as Ugandan officials (including president oweri Museveni) met
with SPLM-O representatives and discussed how Uganda can help end the South
Sudan civil war. The joint military cooperation agreement appears to be a
diplomatic response to those rumors. Uganda has insisted that its goal is to
stabilize South Sudan.
October 12, 2014: Negotiators for South Sudan's rebel SPLM in Opposition
(SPLM-O) denied South Sudan government claims that they are blocking
progress in peace negotiations. The rebels said that they have offered
numerous compromises to forward talks on how to structure a transitional
government. The rebels pointed out that earlier this year one of their key
demands was that president Salva Kiir resign his office. The rebels said
that they will now accept a power sharing arrangement. They have proposed
that the position of prime minister also have executive powers.
October 11, 2014: A political group of Darfur college students are
protesting decisions made by the Darfur Regional Authority (DRA). The
students allege that the DRA is letting Sudan's National Intelligence and
Security Services (NISS) harass and arrest Darfur students attending
universities in Khartoum. The students accused the governing National
Congress Party of undermining the DRA.
Ocgtober 9, 2014: The U.S. government said that South Sudan must hold people
accountable for war crimes committed during the civil war that began in
December 2013.
October 8, 2014: A senior South Sudan rebel officer denied allegations that
he has defected to the government. General Tot Joak Koi has a very mixed
record. At one time he fought for the Sudan government during the
north-south civil war. When the South Sudan civil war began in December 2013
he sided with the rebels (SPLM-O). He took command of a group of rebels in
Upper Nile state (Wedakona area). Koi called the allegations lies and an
attempt to divide the rebels.
The Sudan rebel umbrella organization, Sudan Revolutionary Forces (SRF)
announced that it is expanding its national strategic political alliance.
The SRF is now allied with the National Consensus Forces (NCF). The NCF
describes itself as a center-left political organization. The SRF said its
current goals are the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir's dictatorship
and stopping the 2015 national elections from being held.
October 7, 2014: The Sudan government is calling attention to a study
recently published by the Arab Industrial Development and Mining
Organization (AIDMO) which concluded that Sudan has large, commercially
productive mineral deposits of chrome, manganese and gold. Sudan produced
around 35 tons of gold in 2013. However, much of the gold was smuggled out
of the country.
October 4, 2014: Four Fur tribe rebel groups from the Jebel Marra area are
conducting preliminary peace talks with the governments of Central Darfur
state. The actual mountain, Jebel Marra, is in West Darfur state. The
discussions include cattle taxes (a very big deal) and laws regulating
pasturage. The tribes are interested in development projects, to include new
roads.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) requested that Saudi Arabia arrest
Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir, who is under indictment by the ICC for
genocide and war crimes. According to the ICC, Bashir is now in Saudi Arabi
and is on a pilgrimage to Mecca. Saudi Arabia, however, has not signed the
ICC establishment treaty and is not legally obliged to comply.
October 2, 2014: The South Sudan rebel forces and government forces (Sudan
Peoples Liberation Army, SPLA) accused each other of ceasefire violations in
Upper Nile state and Unity state. The SPLA claimed that rebel forces in the
Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement in Opposition (SLPM-O) attacked SPLA
positions near Renk (Unity state). The SPLM-O accused the SPLA of attacking
rebels in Upper Nile and Unity states as well as shelling a civilian
facility in Kamel (Jonglei state). The rebels claimed on September 30
government forces attacked rebel defensive positions in Kuer Guina,
Thou-Maan-Gor and Wang-Kei in Unity state. The rebels also indicated that
they had noticed increased government military activity near Bentiu.
October 1, 2014: The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) denied allegations
that UN peacekeepers placed barbed wire fences around South Sudanese army
(SPLA) installations. Rumors spread that UN peacekeepers (in one case,
peacekeepers from Rwanda) were installing wire around SPLA garrisons to
prevent the SPLA from abandoning the garrisons if they were attacked. The
SPLA also denied the allegations.