October 22, 2014: The Tobruk government announced that its forces had driven
Islamic terrorist groups out of Benghazi. While that is true, most of these
groups retreated in an orderly fashion taking many weapons and supplies with
them. Now the government forces (mainly the army and the Hiftar coalition)
must pursue the retreating Islamic terrorists to towns and smaller cities
where some of these groups already have some presence. At the same time the
government said it was gathering forces to retake Tripoli. That probably
means a coalition of pro-government militias in the west. The army and
Hiftar forces are all tied up chasing down Islamic terrorists in the east.
While the fighting in Benghazi got most of the headlines over the last month
hostilities continued on the outskirts of Tripoli and these militias are
apparently the ones the government expects to retake Tripoli. The fighting
in Benghazi had died down by the 21st after three weeks of increasingly
intense fighting that caused over a thousand casualties (and more than
several hundred dead). The government used its artillery and air power to
good effect and that made it difficult for the Islamic terrorist militias to
mass men to take ground. That's why several major efforts to take the
Benghazi airport failed. This use of firepower drove out the Islamic
terrorists but also caused extensive damage to buildings and led to over
100,000 civilians fleeing Benghazi and Tripoli (where there was less
artillery and air attacks). In Benghazi it got so bad that senior leaders of
the Islamic terrorist militias had to show up at the front lines to rally
their gunmen, many of whom were quietly slipping away and going home. This
led to several of these senior leaders getting killed.
While Libya has come apart as a nation in the political sense, the Tripoli
and Tobruk governments have agreed to not interfere with oil operations. The
understanding here is that the oil income, which the Tobruk government
largely controls, buys essentials (like food) that will continue to be
distributed to all Libyans. So far that seems to be working. This is what
always mattered most because the oil money pays for everything. The cash
from oil sales is going into the Central Bank, which tends to answer to the
Tobruk parliament because that is the one with international recognition and
that provides access to the international banking system. The various
factions are pressuring the Central Bank and courts to favor them but it is
the international community that controls the ability of Libya to buy
essential (most of the food and everything else) needed to keep Libyans
alive recognizes the Tobruck officials. That internationally recognized
government set up shop in the small port city of Tobruk (1,600 kilometers
east of Tripoli) after encountering hostility from militias loyal to the
pre-June government. Many other government offices moved as well and are
finding space where they can. The rebel governments in Tripoli and the
Tobruk are fighting over who controls more than $100 billion held by the
Central Bank. A lot of that cash is overseas and since Tobruk has
international and UN support the Tripoli rebels are having a hard time
maintaining control of any oil income. If the Tripoli government tries to
sell oil on the black market they will have most of the world going after
them with bank account shutdowns and seizure of the tankers they use (either
in port or on the high seas). In the end, it's the oil money that will bring
peace, or abject poverty for all. The government is running out of cash and
credit. Another year or two of this and life gets very miserable for
Libyans.
Egypt is hosting a three day conference of Libyan tribal leaders in Cairo.
The meeting includes tribal chiefs from all over Libya. While often at odds
with each other, all the tribes suffer if the country descends into anarchy
and the oil money stops. If that happens the tribes starve and lose much
else besides. It's not just religious extremism that divides Libyans, it's
also tribalism. The tribe angle is even more important than religion but is
often mixed up with religious attitudes and the charisma of a local leader
to keep the divisions fresh and violent. Most of the tribes oppose the
Islamic terrorist groups but getting them to cooperate in opposing the
Islamic terrorists has been difficult. It was a major chore just getting so
many tribal chiefs to come to Cairo and discuss the matter. Meanwhile Egypt
keeps denying that its warplanes were responsible for another several air
strikes in Benghazi. So far there have not been any compelling cell phone
photos or videos to back up the eyewitness reports. Egypt is very eager to
have peace in Libya, if only to avoid having an Islamic terrorist sanctuary
as a neighbor. Most of the armed men guarding the border are on the Egyptian
side. The Libyans have thousands of armed men assigned to border security
but these personnel are poorly trained, led and equipped. Smugglers have
more to worry about once they get on the other side of the Libyan border.
The Mali peacekeeping force, composed of 11,000 French and (mainly) African
troops has been suffering more casualties in the last month as Islamic
terrorists from Mali settle into bases in southern Libya and are now
regularly moving south to carry out operations in northern Mali. All this is
possible because of the Libya n civil war . That is mainly up north along
the coast and no one bothers with Islamic terrorists who only kill across
the border in Mali. There is a similar problem in Afghanistan with Islamic
terrorists operations from several sanctuary areas in neighboring Pakistan
and Iran.
October 19, 2014: The internationally recognized government in Tobruk has
openly allied itself with general Hiftar, who has always declared his
support for a government.
October 12, 2014: Egypt warned its citizens, especially the many truck
drivers operating in Libya, to not venture beyond Tobruk because of the risk
of being kidnapped or robbed by Islamic terrorist rebels.
October 10, 2014: In an effort to halt the attacks on them, the Ansar al
Sharia Islamic terrorist militia (the largest in the city) in Benghazi
declared that they had no intention of spreading their rule beyond Benghazi.
This pledge did not work and the army, tribal and Hiftar forces kept
attacking.
October 9, 2014: In neighboring Niger French troops, in cooperation with
local forces, intercepted and destroyed an AQIM ( Al Qaeda in the Islamic
Maghreb) convoy carrying weapons and ammunition from Libya to Mali. Some of
the Islamic terrorists involved were captured.
October 5, 2014: In the eastern city of Derna an Islamic terrorist group
(Shura Council of Islamic Youth) declared their support for ISIL (Islamic
State in Iraq and the Levant). This is good news for the government because
any ISIL affiliated Islamic terrorist militias will now suffer more
international pressure as well as the need to attack other Islamic terrorist
groups that have not declared for ISIL.
October 4, 2014: A British school teacher who was kidnapped in May was
released after payment of a ransom. This is discouraged because it
encourages more kidnappings of foreigners. In the last few months most
foreigners from Western countries that pay ransoms have fled the country.