Viewing cable 09ADDISABABA2817, ETHIOPIAN PM CONSIDERING PRO-ACTIVE OPTIONS
ON
16.10.2014
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the
<
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ADDISABABA2817.html#help_1> structure
of a cable as well as how to
<
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ADDISABABA2817.html#help_2> discuss
them with others. See also the FAQs
<
http://wikileaks.org/static/html/faq.html>
Reference ID
Created
Classification
Origin
09ADDISABABA2817 <
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ADDISABABA2817.html>
2009-11-30 15:38 <
http://wikileaks.org/date/2009-11_0.html>
CONFIDENTIAL <
http://wikileaks.org/classification/1_0.html>
Embassy Addis Ababa <
http://wikileaks.org/origin/189_0.html>
VZCZCXRO4886
OO RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHDS #2817/01 3341538
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 301538Z NOV 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6970
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHXQ/EU MEMEBER STATES COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE 0757
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH IMMEDIATE 0991
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH IMMEDIATE 2504
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 002817
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV <
http://wikileaks.org/tag/PGOV_0.html> PREL
<
http://wikileaks.org/tag/PREL_0.html> ET
<
http://wikileaks.org/tag/ET_0.html>
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN PM CONSIDERING PRO-ACTIVE OPTIONS ON
ERITREA, SUPPORTS KENYA'S JUBALAND INITIATIVE
ADDIS ABAB 00002817 001.4 OF 004
Classified By: CDA Roger Meece for reasons 1.4 b/d.
<
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ADDISABABA2817.html#par1> ¶1. (C)
SUMMARY. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told visiting
AF/DAS Wycoff and CDA on November 19 that he wanted to give the USG a "heads
up" that Ethiopia was considering actively supporting armed Eritrean
opposition groups if the international community fails to take action to
isolate Asmara. Wycoff questioned providing such support, noting the USG,s
interest in regional stability. On Somalia, Meles said the Government of
Ethiopia (GoE) has recently informed Kenya of its support in principle for
Kenya's Jubaland initiative and has agreed to share relevant intelligence.
On Ethiopia's forthcoming elections, Meles pledged that the rule-of-law
would be the bedrock that both assures free and fair elections and deals
with any groups that seek to undermined the process. He complained that
Diaspora money has too much influence in determining the relative strengths
of opposition parties, although he added that implementation of a law
restricting foreign funding of NGOs would allow for exceptions on a
case-by-case basis. When asked, he justified the continued imprisonment of
opposition leader Bertukan Midekessa as necessary to demonstrate that
Ethiopia has no "twilight zone" between the legal and the illegal. After
expressing understanding for the ramifications of further inaction, Meles
said he would look into apparent GoE-imposed obstacles to delivery of U.S.
military equipment and supplies as well as re-examine the GoE,s stance on
Leahy vetting requirements.
2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED. Wycoff agreed that Eritrea has shown no signs of
changing its behavior but suggested that the broadening discussion of
sanctions, including Ambassador Rice's personal involvement at USUN, has
caught the attention of Eritrean President Isaias. Wycoff added that the
USG has worked to undercut support for Eritrea, including his own visits to
Gulf countries to enlist their support in such activities as well as their
active support for Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG). He said
the U.S. is opposed to Kenya's so-called Jubaland initiative, given the
complexities of Somalia. Our concern is that efforts to implement such an
initiative would backfire causing even greater instability. On the
elections, he said the USG recognizes the signing of a preamble to an
electoral code of Conduct as a valuable step and would be looking now to the
orderly registration of political parties and individual candidates. He also
advocated that all parties, including the government, should work to create
an environment that was conducive to the participation in the elections
process by all other parties. He said the U.S. views the role of civil
society as crucial to democracy and that it was natural for the USG to
promote the role of non-governmental organizations in Ethiopia. The Charge
noted that DAS Wycoff,s visit was intended as a signal of USG intent to
follow up substantively on the November 5 bilateral talks in Washington to
intensify U.S.-Ethiopia relations on several fronts. He also told Meles of
his forthcoming departure from Post. Wycoff held an on-the-record press
conference with domestic and international press, where he highlighted the
comprehensive nature of the bilateral agenda and USG concerns about the
reduction of political space and the importance of a free and fair elections
process in Ethiopia. END SUMMARY.
3. (SBU) Visiting AF/DAS Karl Wycoff and CDA Meece met with Ethiopian Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi for 90 minutes on November 19. Meles was joined by
Chief of Cabinet Birhanu Adelu. The USG was also represented by pol/econ
counselor and deputy counselor.
Ethiopia Looking at More Pro-Active Options on Eritrea
--------------------------------------------- ---------
4. (C) Prime Minister Meles raised Eritrean misbehavior
several times. He said Ethiopia is convinced that Eritrea realizes it
cannot destabilize Ethiopia before the latter's May 2010 elections and so
has decided to target its destabilization efforts for the period just after
the elections. (NOTE: The 2005 Ethiopian elections themselves were
relatively calm, but post-election tensions stemming from vote-counting
disputes triggered violence and widespread government reprisals. END NOTE.)
He said Ethiopia's response to Asmara's efforts to destabilize Ethiopia,
Somalia and, more recently, Djibouti and Yemen has been almost exclusively
passive but added that he wanted to give us a "heads up that we are looking
at options." He said, "We would be happy to stand down if developments
outside the area obviate the need to become more pro-active."
5. (C) Making clear what international community actions
ADDIS ABAB 00002817 002.4 OF 004
would persuade Ethiopia to stand down, Meles expressed particular
disappointment that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has not taken
action to impose a sanctions regime on Eritrea. He urged the U.S. to
redouble sanctions efforts and especially to reconsider targeting
remittances as what he called a "key instrument" for pressuring Asmara.
Citing as examples his own Amcit, ethnic-Eritrean cousins, he said, "If the
U.S. were to insist that paying taxes to Asmara is a felony, it would be
easier for them to resist the tax. The Diaspora could say, 'We can't pay
you.'"
6. (C) DAS Wycoff questioned providing support to Eritrean
anti-government armed groups, noting the USG,s interest in regional
stability. Wycoff agreed there is no evidence that Eritrea has showed
improvement in its behavior, although he added that President Isaias had
recently undertaken something of a charm offensive targeted at European
diplomats, a possible indication that he may be considering options. Wycoff
assured Meles that the U.S. remains committed to achieving a UNSC sanctions
regime against Asmara and continues to broaden the discussion beyond the P3
and Uganda with a hard push by USUN. He said the USG was also expanding
efforts to undercut support for Asmara, noting for example he been sent on a
trip to Cairo, Riyadh, Jeddah and other cities both to promote efforts to
undercut flows of support to Asmara but also to seek concrete support for
Somalia's TFG. He said he has observed that some EU member states, formerly
more supportive of Eritrea, have come to accept that Eritrea is playing a
seriously negative role in the region and that the UK now believes that
Eritrea has become a significant threat to its own domestic security.
7. (C) Pressed by Wycoff to describe the "pro-active"
measures being considered, Meles said one option would be to directly
support opposition groups that are capable of sending "armed propaganda
units" into Eritrea Meles said that the groups with the most capability to
operate inside Eritrea are those "that you don't like from the lowlands,
like the Keru" who he said would be "much better able to survive in
Eritrea." (NOTE. The Keru are a primarily Muslim
ethnic group most of whose members live in Eritrea, although a minority live
in Ethiopia. END NOTE.)
Somalia: Ethiopia Offers Kenya Support on Jubaland Policy
--------------------------------------------- ------------
8. (C) PM Meles revealed that the GoE recently held meetings
with Kenyan officials regarding Kenya's Jubaland initiative involving the
training in Kenya of ethic Somalis to return to Somalia's south in order to
fight Al-Shabab. He said that he understood that A/S Carson had pressed
Kenya to brief Ethiopia on this Kenyan initiative after it had been broached
with the USG. Meles stated his thanks to the A/S for his role in ensuring
that Ethiopia was consulted on this sensitive issue. He said the GoE had
offered support in principle for the initiative and had offered to share
relevant information, especially in connection with the vetting of ethnic
Ogaden recruits. Wycoff stated unequivocally that the USG thought this
initiative was a bad one and that it held more risk of worsening Somalia,s
stability than helping. Wycoff also noted that Kenya had little experience
in executing such initiatives. Meles agreed with Wycoff's concern that
Kenya has no history of successfully implementing this kind of program and
has shown no evidence of the political will necessary to sustain the
initiative, especially in the complex constellation of clans found in
southern Somalia. Wycoff said the USG finds it more likely that the
initiative would backfire and has expressed this concern at multiple levels
of the Kenyan government. Meles said he shares this concern and added
another -- Kenya seems to have the money to launch the initiative but not to
sustain it, a concern he said he had felt it prudent not to express to the
Kenyans. Nevertheless, he is impressed that Kenya has done a good deal of
groundwork to prepare the initiative and said frankly that Ethiopia wants to
ensure that the Ogaden National Liberation Front does not benefit from the
training, an eventuality he feels Ethiopian involvement could help obviate.
9. (C) DAS Wycoff made clear that the U.S. does not consider
Kenya's initiative to be productive at this point and intends to stay away
from it. He urged Meles to consider that the TFG has achieved some tenuous
viability because it is to a large extent home-grown rather than imposed
from outside Somalia. Meles countered that the TFG must move forward or it
will sooner or later move backwards. He said many observers are alleging
that TFG President Sharif is a Wahhabi Muslim, but he has decided Sharif
deserves the benefit of the doubt. Less personally, he believes the Kenyan
initiative presents a pragmatic opportunity to support the TFG and he
intends to embrace it because the alternatives to the TFG -- Al-Shabab, Hisb
al-Islam, etc. -- are much worse. As a bottom line, he said he believes the
Kenyan program could weaken extremists in Somalia.
10. (C) Meles said the TFG's primary problem is lack of cash
in that the $400 million pledged by donors in Brussels and elsewhere is
being used to finance NGOs in the region instead of paying TFG troops. He
complained that neither the Saudis nor the Gulf States are giving money. He
said the U.S. alone is directly financing the TFG and is keeping it afloat.
Some internationals, he continued, want to start the Djibouti Process over
again -- a sentiment he understands given the waste of resources committed
by the previous TFG president
but dismisses as counterproductive today. He said the TFG is developing a
budget and that IGAD intends to help raise the funds needed. He urged the
U.S. to push other donors to make direct contributions as we have done.
Wycoff noted that the USG has also pressed the TFG to develop a budget,
transparent budget process, and focus on developing a capability to govern,
including providing services.
11. (C) Wycoff acknowledged that Ethiopia will have a role to
play in Somalia, including in facilitating a TFG-Al Sunna Wal Jamma alliance
(ASWJ), but urged Meles to play its role with discretion in order to avoid
Ethiopian involvement serving as a recruiting tool for Al-Shabab. Wycoff
added that the U.S. is also urging the TFG to form a strategic alliance with
ASWJ.
Rule of Law to Deal with Those Who Would "Discredit the
Process"
----------------------------------------
12. (C) Wycoff acknowledged that U.S. and Ethiopian officials
had held "fulsome discussions" in Washington on November 5-6 and
characterized his visit as a clear signal that the USG would follow up
aggressively across the full range of bilateral issues. He said he would be
meeting with key actors in the Ethiopian electoral process -- including the
National Election Board of Ethiopia, the minister of communication, and
opposition party leaders -- and would urge them all to facilitate full
engagement in the process. Wycoff noted that it was incumbent on all parties
to create an atmosphere that was conducive to participation in the elections
by all other parties. Wycoff praised the signing by four major political
parties, including Meles' ruling EPRDF, of a preamble to an electoral code
of conduct as a positive step, adding that the U.S. would be very attentive
during the imminent "crunch time" for the legal registration of political
parties and individual candidates. He told Meles the U.S. views the role of
civil society as very important to the democratization process and expressed
concern about recent Ethiopian legislation that would limit the capacity of
Ethiopian civil society groups that receive foreign funding to engage in
political advocacy and conflict
mitigation.
13. (C) Meles straightforwardly defended the legislation,
saying Ethiopia also welcomes the role of civil society but suggesting that
Ethiopia defines it a bit differently than does the U.S. He said civil
society groups should be domestic and should be funded domestically, from
the members of the groups themselves and other Ethiopian citizens. He
added, however, that once the ongoing re-registration process concludes for
domestically funded groups, waivers from the new law's funding restrictions
will be considered for other groups on a case-by-case basis. Wycoff replied
that the U.S. would be watching this registration process closely and urged
Meles to consider a flow of money between the American people and the people
of African nations, including Ethiopia, to be a natural consequence of the
role of civil society and relations between our peoples.
14. (C) Meles pointedly criticized the Ethiopian Diaspora,
especially its U.S. members, for launching "a massive campaign to ostracize
opposition parties who take part in the process." Obviously referring to
the continuous involvement in the code of conduct talks of the opposition
"All Ethiopian Unity Party," Meles said, "One party changing its view
doesn't mean there aren't tougher nuts to crack." He said, "We will assume
that all political parties participating in the elections are doing so
legally, but the rule-of-law will apply and those parties looking only to
discredit the process will be addressed."
ADDIS ABAB 00002817 004.2 OF 004
15. (C) Wycoff raised the continued imprisonment of
opposition leader Bertukan Midekessa, and Meles replied at length.
Recounting the familiar history that Bertukan had joined in a group request
for pardon after convictions stemming from the violent aftermath of the 2005
elections, Meles characterized her later disavowing of the pardon request as
an attempt "to prove there is room in Ethiopia to operate in a twilight zone
between the legal and the illegal, and we had to prove her wrong." He said
he had "expressed frustration" with European Union representatives recently
because, in his view, they insist on reacting in just the way Bertukan wants
rather than persuading her that she need not
be in prison.
Meles Open to Expediting Military Supplies,
Less Helpful on Leahy Vetting
--------------------------------------------
16. (C) Wycoff announced that AFRICOM Commanding General Ward
and DASD Huddleston would soon be arriving in Ethiopia in follow-up to the
November 5 talks and suggested that the U.S. would like to dispense with two
problems, apparently of a procedural or technical nature, before those
visits. Wycoff explained the nonwaivable Leahy Vetting requirements that
must be met before the U.S. can provide training or equipment to foreign
militaries, assured Meles there is no U.S. attempt to direct equipment to
particular individuals or units, and said there nevertheless seems to be a
reluctance on the part of the GoE to allow that vetting. Charge Meece
explained that shipments of military equipment were backlogged in Djibouti
because the names of Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) officers to
whom the equipment would be delivered had not been submitted to the USG for
Leahy vetting. Meece described the second problem as another backlog in
Djibouti, this time involving a cement shipment, destined for a DOD project
in the Ethiopian town of Arba Minch, that is languishing for lack of
Ethiopian paperwork.
17. (C) Meles said he would investigate the Leahy vetting
obstruction, but added that the problem is likely that Ethiopia sees the
DOD/ENDF cooperation as institutional rather than personal and may be
further compounded by the fact that the equipment is likely not assigned by
the ENDF to particular units. He asked whether the equipment could be
transferred to a second unit, after being delivered to a first, at ENDF
discretion. Wycoff replied that vetting requirements, once met, might not
preclude such transfers but would have to be addressed on the basis of each
specific case. He was aware of cases where such equipment transfers had
been approved in other countries.
18. (C) On the Arba Minch issue, Meles said, "We'll see if we
can find a shortcut." (Note: On November 20, Meles advisor Birhanuto called
CDA to suggest that the embassy submit a note verbal on the matter directly
to the minister of finance, bypassing the ministry of foreign affairs, and
said
that the problem should then be solved. End Note.)
19. (C) CDA Meece ended the meeting by assuring Meles that
the U.S. hopes to intensify relations with Ethiopia on several fronts
relating to defense, elections, intelligence, and more. He also announced
his own forthcoming departure from Post. Wycoff noted that the gap in having
a permanent Ambassador in Addis was purely a matter of assigning the best
possible person to the job and should not be perceived as a political signal
of any kind.
20. (SBU) Wycoff held an on-the-record press conference with
domestic and international press, where he highlighted the comprehensive
nature of the bilateral agenda and USG concerns about the reduction of
political space and the importance of a free and fair elections process in
Ethiopia.
21. (SBU) DAS Wycoff cleared on this message.
MEECE
Received on Thu Oct 16 2014 - 16:12:55 EDT