October 5, 2014: The AU (African Union) led offensive against remaining al
Shabaab held towns in the interior and along the coasts that began in early
2013 has accomplished about 75 percent of its goals. The peacekeeper
commander believes that the rest of the active Islamic terrorists can be
captured, killed or driven out of the country within a year. Al Shabaab men
are increasingly fleeing the approaching AU and government forces and many
of the Islamic terrorists are surrendering or simply deserting and returning
to their home villages. A government amnesty program, which keeps getting
extended, has been successful in getting a lot of low-level al Shabaab men
to surrender. There are still believed to be at least 3,000 al Shabaab men
in Somalia, including several hundred foreigners. At least a third of the
remaining al Shabaab men are hard core and unlikely to surrender or desert.
Currently al Shabaab is still recovering from the death of their leader on
September 2nd. The new leader has similar hard line goals as his
predecessor. But dissident factions have forced the new leader to at least
discuss reforms (to reduce the number of assassinations and civilian
casualties in order to gain more popular support). The hardliners who have
been running al Shabaab for the last few years are under pressure because
their tactics appear to have resulted in heavy losses for the organization
and a lot more hostility from most Somalis. The recent loss of port towns
like Adale and Barawe have greatly reduced al Shabaab income and their
ability to move in and out of the country. This cash shortage can be seen in
action as peacekeepers report that in the last month or so al Shabaab men
looted stores and homes when they were ordered to flee as peacekeepers
approached. This looting was planned in advance and kept secret so that
merchants would not hide a lot of their goods.
In the southeast (lower Shabelle region) peacekeepers and soldiers have been
on the offensive against al Shabaab forces there since August and over 500
of the Islamic terrorists have surrendered while over a hundred have been
killed or wounded. More than a thousand simply fled the approaching
government forces and avoided contact with them. Al Shabaab has avoided
fighting the government forces, who are better armed and equipped than the
Islamic terrorists and usually win big when al Shabaab stays to fight. So
the Islamic terrorists have adopted a strategy of avoiding the government
forces and returning to terror attacks only.
As if the government didn't enough problems they have had to contend with
more soldiers and police becoming less effective over the last few months
because of cheaper khat. Britain banned the import and use of the tropical
plant khat in July, joining most other European nations and many in the
Middle East. Even the UN has identified khat as a dangerous substance. This
has brought joy to Somalia, where khat producers, having lost a major
customer for khat exports has been selling a lot more of it in Somalia and
at bargain (at least 50 percent less) prices. While this is great for all
the soldiers, militiamen and gangsters who spend a lot of time sitting
around waiting for some action, these guys become more unpredictable when
under the influence of khat. Moreover, men with guns are the wrong people to
turn into khat addicts. Khat is very addictive and an armed man with a
desperate need for more khat will do crazy things to obtain the cash to buy
more of the stuff. Wives complain that husbands will spend all their money
on khat and ignore their starving children. It is believed that recent
accusations of soldiers and peacekeepers abusing women is in part due to
khat use.
Since August Kenya has deployed thousands of troops to man additional
checkpoints on roads leading from the Somali border. This has made it much
more difficult for Somali smugglers to get weapons and drugs into Kenya.
While the smugglers can (and usually do) bribe the border guards, the
additional check points are manned by many troops who refuse to take bribes
and that makes getting truckloads of goods into Kenya much more difficult.
The smugglers are now relying more on ships and small loads carried cross
country on motorcycles or pack animals.
October 4, 2014: Al Shabaab fled the coastal town of Barawe (200 kilometers
south of Mogadishu) as government forces approached.
October 1, 2014: Peacekeepers and soldiers drove al Shabaab out of the port
town of Adale (200 kilometers northeast of Mogadishu).
In the north (Puntland) government forces attacked an al Shabaab base and
killed over twenty of the Islamic terrorists while losing at least three
soldiers. Since the 1990s the two statelets that comprise northern Somalia
(Puntland and Somaliland) have been coming apart because of internal
problems. Despite that, northern Somalia has been better governed since
breaking away from Somalia in the 1990 to form Puntland (2.5 million people)
and Somaliland (3.5 million). The other two-thirds of the Somali population
to the south, has been in perpetual chaos since 1990. The two statelets have
a festering border dispute that periodically flares into armed clashes.
Puntland has had al Shabaab groups camping out near the southern border for
several years. The number of al Shabaab men there has increased to several
hundred this year as more of the Islamic terrorists flee the continuing
government offensive in the south. Puntland recently decided to forget about
trying to tolerate the al Shabaab presence and went on the offensive against
the Islamic terrorists. The al Shabaab men in Puntland have few resources
and are vulnerable. A growing number of them are returning south and
surrendering to the government there.
September 27, 2014: The government offered a $2 million reward for
information leading to the arrest or death of Ahmed Omar Abu Ubeyd, the new
al Shabaab leader. The identity of those receiving the reward would be kept
secret.
September 26, 2014: In the south (Barawe) al Shabaab carried out a public
execution (by stoning) of a woman accused of having three husbands.
In Kenya the government, for the first time, closed a madrassa (religious
school) for teaching Islamic radicalism. The school was in a Moslem
neighborhood in the town of Machakos (60 kilometers outside the capital).
The school had been operating since 1997 and recently 21 former students
were arrested for joining al Shabaab.
September 25, 2014: In the central Somali town of Galkayo there was a gun
battle between former pirates who had recently received $1.6 million in
ransom for one of the few valuable captives still held by pirates. At least
three of the pirates were killed and one group made off with the cash. No
big ships (that can be ransomed for a lot of money) have been taken in over
two years and few pirates are still trying. Most have found other employment
(usually fishing or smuggling people into Yemen). Some pirate gangs still
holding captives have fled to inland areas to continue waiting for their
ransom demands to be met. Most of the captives still held are from poor
families who cannot afford a ransom and are from countries that will not
pay.
September 24, 2014: In the north (Puntland) the government is using
satellite photos to prove that foreign fishing ships (usually from East
Asian countries) are illegally fishing in Somali coastal waters. This led to
the recent seizure of four South Korean ships which although they had
permits to fish in Somali waters were photographed working in areas they
were not supposed to be in and thus leaving local Somali fishermen with
little or nothing to catch. The foreign ships with permits are supposed to
operate far off shore, where the smaller Somali fishing boats rarely
venture. The companies who own the four ships will have to pay fines to get
them released, which is standard international practice in cases like this.
September 23, 2014: Pirates in central Somalia freed a German-American
journalist after receiving a $1.6 million ransom. While the U.S. refused to
pay ransom for the journalist, the Germans were willing (because the captive
was a dual citizen of Germany and the United States) but refused to pay the
$5 million the pirates had been demanding since they seized the man in
January 2012. Fearing an American commando raid to free their captive, the
pirates agreed to lower their demands and settled on $1.6 million which was
delivered via Somali middlemen. The pirates were actually out of the piracy
business and hiding out in central Somalia. But with government forces
continuing to regain control over interior Somalia, it was only a matter of
time before they showed up at the pirate hideout. This journalist was the
only valuable captive they had left and now the pirates could use the money
to flee.
September 21, 2014: In Kenya an opinion poll showed that over 65 percent of
Kenyans believe that al Shabaab will carry out more major terror attacks in
Kenya and over half believed that Kenyan troops should be withdrawn from
Somalia to provide more forces for counter-terror operations in Kenya.
September 20, 2014: In Mogadishu al Shabaab gunmen shot dead three Somali
engineers working for the AU.
September 14, 2014: In Uganda a series of police raids resulted in the
arrest of 19 Somali men and the seizure of explosives to be used in an al
Shabaab terror attack. The Islamic terrorist group has been threatening to
carry out attacks in Uganda as revenge for all the Ugandan peacekeepers
serving in Somalia.
September 13, 2014: In Mogadishu al Shabaab gunmen killed the deputy
commander of a counter-terrorism unit. The Islamic terrorists claimed this
was revenge for the recent death of their leader (via an American missile
fired by a UAV) on September 2nd.
September 9, 2014: Al Shabaab used a mortar to fire several shells into a
residential neighborhood in the outskirts of Mogadishu. Five civilians were
wounded.
September 8, 2014: An al Shabaab roadside bomb killed about 16 civilians 30
kilometers south of Mogadishu.
AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) announced its support for the new
head of al Shabaab in Somalia. AQAP and other al Qaeda branches are hoping
that the new al Shabaab leadership does not declare its allegiance to the
far more radical (and al Qaeda rival) ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria).
September 7, 2014: The government replaced its National Security Director,
who had held the office for only two months. No reason was given and his
deputy took over temporarily and then a former member of the supreme court
took the job.
September 6, 2014: Al Shabaab announced that hardliner Ahmed Omar Abu Ubeyd
was their new leader.