ADDIS ABABA , Sep 28 2013 (IPS) -- Strong action now expected against the
al-Shabaab group may well end up strengthening the group rather than
weakening it, local people fear. The extremist group is suspected of
involvement in the attack on the Westgate mall in Nairobi.
In the new round of confrontation expected, many people fear they will
suffer most. "As always when these attacks happen, we are the ones who end
up suffering," a 23-year-old student who gave his name only as Mohammed told
IPS on phone from Somali capital Mogadishu. "When the politicians and armies
fight, our suffering is pushed aside."
The Islamist group had been on the back foot in Somalia for some time. It
faced dwindling support in recent years from an increasing disenfranchised
diaspora and from a Somali population growing increasingly tired of
violence.
"The attack shows that Shabaab under Godane is a force to be reckoned with
and a staunch ally of al-Qaeda."
Several signs have emerged of a weakening of the group. In recent months,
al-Shabaab was kicked out of Bakara Market and Kismayo port in Somalia.
These were two strategic locations for the group, and huge sources of their
income.
Despite an increase in the murder of journalists and bombings in the
capital, a serious attack on the national courts and on the UNDP compound in
Mogadishu, many analysts had been pointing to a diminishing al-Shabaab. The
Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) had been heralded for bringing
in a new era of stability for Somalia which saw diaspora returning and
restoration of a certain degree of normality.
"Support for al-Shabaab in Somalia is low," Ahmed Soliman, Somalia expert at
the London-based Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House)
told IPS. "Their insurgent tactics targeting innocent civilians gain little
support from Somalis who suffer from their actions or Kenyan ethnic-Somalis,
who have to endure the negative consequences of being associated with this
violence."
But, he said, "there is a minority at home and abroad who will be emboldened
by this attack and who may seek to support the efforts of al-Shabaab."
The attack on Westgate could seek to draw strength from its growing
weakness. The group could capitalise on the reasons for its origin.
Following the U.S-backed invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia and an African
force in 2006, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) that had been dominant in
ruling Somalia was driven out of the capital. A youth wing of the ICU took
up arms against the "invaders". The group, known as al-Shabaab, or 'the
youth', continues to fight foreign forces.
After Ethiopia sent in significant forces against it in 2011 to bolster
Kenyan and African Union troops, al-Shabaab has faced several strategic
setbacks. These led to infighting between leaders of the group. It is
believed that some leaders were concerned that others were becoming too
involved with the global jihadist movement and al-Qaeda.
Al-Shabab leader Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr, known as Godane, took over supreme
leadership this summer, knocking out the more moderate leaders. He has
frequently voiced his loyalty to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda.
"The attack shows that Shabaab under Godane is a force to be reckoned with
and a staunch ally of al-Qaeda," Stig Jarle Hansen, author of 'Al-Shabaab in
Somalia' and an expert on Somalia told IPS. "This strengthens al-Shabaab in
their own eyes, and strengthens Godane, as well as the organisation in the
eyes of Al-Qaeda. But it could hurt their Kenyan networks as Kenya intensify
their prosecutions against Somalis residing in Kenya."
According to Hansen, Al-Shabaab may have attempted to take advantage of the
Somali people's increasing hostility towards Kenya's support of the Ogadeni
clan which dominates Juba state. The state has seen a strong move to secede
from Somalia with Kenyan support.
According to Hansen, the attack may also increase support for Godane by
"demonstrating an ability to act, and to stop some al-Shabaab leaders who
were thinking of leaving from doing so."
The attack may on the other hand increase financial and political support
from the international community for military campaigns against al-Shabaab
especially from the U.S. and from European countries, Hansen said. But he
warned that "this creates a highly predatory police and army that enables
al-Shabaab to score propaganda victories. It also creates a highly corrupt
force that al-Shabaab can easily bribe."
Somalia expert Alula Iyasu said that the government in Mogadishu needs to be
careful how it responds.
"While the law and order aspect is critical, the worst thing Mogadishu can
make is to think, like the Bush administration did, that terrorism is the
work of a finite number of bad people and if you arrest or kill all, the
problem goes away. Not the case," Iyasu told IPS.
"This episode in Nairobi should push Mogadishu and its donors to do more on
job creation, schools and other services."
The Westgate attack will serve as a warning that al-Shabaab, despite recent
setbacks, is able to launch more terrorist attacks and to do so beyond
Somalia's borders. Now that the group has shown a stronger alliance with
al-Qaeda, many diplomats are concerned Westgate might just be the beginning
of a spate of attacks.
"Western and African Union countries will need to analyse the internal
dynamics of al-Shabaab more closely, and how it has recently evolved and
reorganised after being removed from Mogadishu and Kismayo," Soliman from
Chatham house tells IPS. "I would fully expect intensified efforts to target
Godane and the leadership of al Shabaab."