Analysis: South Sudan's Kiir faces growing dissent as new state stumbles
By Ulf Laessing and Andrew Green
JUBA | Sun Sep 15, 2013 3:08am EDT
(Reuters) - Telsach Gad, a teacher in South Sudan, had high hopes for a
better life when his country became independent in 2011 after decades of
civil war with Khartoum. Two years later, he has lost all illusions.
"The government hasn't done anything to develop the country," the unemployed
Arabic instructor said, sitting with other jobless young men in a makeshift
roadside cafe in the capital Juba. "We don't have jobs, schools, hospitals."
Western donors and the U.N. have poured billions of dollars into South
Sudan, which won independence after decades of war with northern rulers in
Khartoum, becoming the world's newest country and a large African oil
producer in its own right.
Nobody ever thought it would be easy to transform one of the world's least
developed countries into a functional, prosperous state, but the performance
of the former bush fighters as rulers has fallen short of even the most
modest expectations.
President Salva Kiir is facing growing dissent from the streets and from
inside his ruling party. Critics say the newborn nation is facing the same
ills that always plagued the old Sudan - corruption, a lack of public
services and repression of government opponents and the media.
Two weeks ago, small protests broke out in Juba against the deteriorating
security situation. While nobody regrets secession, half the population
feels South Sudan is heading in the wrong direction with poverty and crime
rising, according to a poll by the International Republican Institute.
"People are upset. Everyone is upset," said Deng Athuai, head of the South
Sudan Civil Society Alliance, which promotes the rule of law. "Nothing is
going right."
The absence of a real opposition party means widespread grievances find no
outlet through the political system, but the calmness in Juba's dusty
streets is deceptive. Many are afraid of the powerful security services and
people are reluctant to discuss corruption in detail.
"PEOPLE ARE AFRAID"
Instead of protesting, many flock to the churches to vent their anger.
"People call all the time to set up counseling sessions," said Caesar Ojja,
pastor at the Pentecostal Church.
Ojja said he heard more and more people talking about suicide due to
unemployment and poverty. "People have problems and they don't know how to
solve it," he said. "People are afraid to take to the street."
Responding to popular frustration, Kiir in July fired his cabinet, many of
whose members had been accused of corruption and incompetence. He also
removed Vice President Riek Machar and SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum,
his main political rivals.
Kiir consolidated power with the sackings but the ruling Sudan People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM) will likely split as Machar and Amum have higher
ambitions, said Nhial Bol, editor of the independent Citizen newspaper.
Machar wants to challenge Kiir for president, while Amum has filed a lawsuit
against being investigated on Kiir's orders for "disloyalty".
Bol said things could turn violent if the government failed to hold
elections in 2015 as planned. An understaffed election body is struggling to
organize a census and register political parties.
With only weak institutions in place, the country might break up along
ethnic lines, as in the civil war when Kiir and Machar were opponents,
according to a study by the Sudd Institute, a local think tank.
"If the cracks take ethnic lines and violence ensues as a result, the state
may become dysfunctional, giving way to a large-scale ethnic violence," the
report said.
Signs of disintegration can be already seen in the central Jonglei state,
where army abuses have fuelled a rebellion by a leader of the small Murle
tribe. Soldiers have looted aid agencies and fighting has cut off tens of
thousands of people from aid, according to the U.N.
Stability in South Sudan is vital for Asian buyers of its crude oil and for
neighboring East African nations such as Kenya and Uganda, which became
swamped with refugees during the civil war.
STATE COLLAPSE?
The government has earned more than $10 billion from oil sales since the
2005 peace deal with Khartoum but no power utility has been built with state
money.
About $5 billion was stolen, and Kiir had to write to 75 former and current
officials last year, asking them to return the money. Diplomats said no
significant amounts were repaid.
While it was always clear it would take time to build hospitals, diplomats
say time was wasted in passing basic legislation. Until recently there were
no functioning immigration laws, which allowed the influx of thousands of
unskilled workers from Kenya and Uganda competing with an army of unemployed
locals.
Officials are working in new buildings with regular power supply but some
ministries are not efficient, diplomats say. The electricity ministry - also
known jokingly as the "ministry of darkness" - for example has only three
trained staff - the minister, his undersecretary and a director general. The
rest await training and guidance on what to do.
The oil ministry only functions thanks to assistance from Norway, which is
also helping to pay for the construction of the first power plant. Oslo also
built the ministry complex.
Western donors and Asian oil firms have helped avoid state collapse by
giving grants during a 16-month oil shutdown with Sudan caused by a row over
pipeline fees and border territory.
Now oil is flowing again but the output is down 50 percent as it takes time
to restart wells, leaving little room for development.
"As long as peace with Sudan holds the government can manage to pay the
army," said a Western diplomat. "But if there is a new conflict they would
struggle and need new grants."
Half of the budget goes to the army but cutting military spending is
impossible due to the tense situation in Jonglei.
Under pressure from donors, Kiir has slashed ten ministries and vowed to
fire his cabinet again if ministers don't perform.
"After three months if you don't have a work plan, you have nothing to
deliver, I will not keep you," Kiir told his new lineup last month.
While the SPLM can do little about the lower oil production it makes the
situation worse by ignoring the talent of South Sudanese who grew up abroad.
They have much-needed skills but struggle to land jobs in ministries because
veterans from the civil war see them as traitors.
"I don't feel like I fit in the system, coming with all the degrees. They
don't see us as fit," said 27-year-old Mer Ayang, who graduated in South
Africa and now works in a bookshop.
"I feel like there is a cold war between the two generations in terms of
running the country," she said.
(Additional reporting by Andreea Campeanu; Editing by Giles Elgood)
S.Sudan army kills almost 100 members of small tribe-rights group
By Andrew Green
JUBA | Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:51pm EDT
(Reuters) - South Sudan's army has killed almost 100 members of a small
tribe, executing some of them in cold blood, during seven months of fighting
with rebels in the eastern Jonglei state, Human Rights Watch said on Friday.
South Sudan's defence minister Kuol Manyang declined to discuss details of
the report by the New York-based rights group. But he told Reuters
authorities had launched an investigation in August into army abuses in the
vast territory.
South Sudan's army spokesman could not be reached on his mobile phone.
South Sudan's army is grappling with a rebellion led by local politician
David Yau Yau as well as clashes between his Murle tribe and the rival Lou
Nuer in Jonglei, which borders Ethiopia.
Western powers are worried a heavy-handed army approach is worsening the
violence, undermining stability in the African country already awash with
arms after decades of conflict.
HRW said in a report soldiers had killed at least 96 members of the Murle
tribe, including 74 civilians, 17 of them women and children, between
December and July.
Some of them were shot dead in crossfire during battles with rebels, HRW
said.
Others were executed as an apparent punishment for alleged support for Yau
Yau or for failing to give up weapons during an army campaign to disarm
locals, the campaign group added.
The army, or SPLA, killed 13 Murle members in Lotho village on Dec 4, HRW
said.
"SPLA soldiers approached a group of civilian men ... and demanded that the
men hand over their guns." the report said, citing witnesses.
"The men gave the SPLA two rifles. The SPLA then tied up the men into two
groups of seven. The soldiers executed the men in one group at the site and
took the men in the other group some distance away and shot them," it added.
Yau Yau's group has said it fights to end army abuses, corruption and the
domination of the ruling party in South Sudan.
"Soldiers should be protecting Murle civilians in Jonglei state from the
fighting and the ethnic conflict," said Daniel Bekele, HRW's Africa
director. "Instead, the army has been killing these vulnerable people."
Last month, President Salva Kiir ordered the arrest of several generals in
Jonglei over the alleged killing of civilians and other reported abuses
under their command.
South Sudan's government has struggled to reform and modernise its army, a
lose umbrella of former guerillas who fought Sudan's government forces
during decades of civil war. That conflict ended in a 2005 peace deal that
paved the way for South Sudan to secede in 2011.
Tribal violence, often triggered by conflicts over livestock and land, has
killed more than 1,600 people in Jonglei since the secession, hampering
plans to explore the state for oil with the help of France's Total and U.S.
firm Exxon.
South Sudan accuses Sudan of supplying Yau Yau with weapons, an accusation
dismissed by Khartoum.
(Writing by Ulf Laessing; Editing by Andrew Heavens)