From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Mon Jul 06 2009 - 06:00:22 EDT
Ethiopia - Meles Zenawi, will he, won't he go?
Indian Ocean Newsletter
06/07/09
The Prime Minister is blowing hot and cold about his possible departure
after the 2010 election. The EPRDF will have its work cut out to find a
successor for him.
The conference of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF, ruling coalition) scheduled for September 2009 should bring an end
to the confusion resulting from Meles Zenawi's affirmation that he may leave
the post of Prime Minister (ION 1256). This confusion has reached a peak
these last few weeks because Meles Zenawi has been issuing conflicting
statements about his possible departure. One day he announced that he would
resign his post of Prime Minister. Another day, he stated that he would like
to become the President of the EPRDF. On yet a third day, he stated that he
would leave politics altogether. Which of these Meles Zenawis should be
believed? In fact, all these declarations are soundings to test the reaction
within the EPRDF and try to bring a generally accepted candidate to emerge.
Otherwise, the Prime Minister would be obliged to carry on for another
mandate.
But each suggestion of a possible successor provokes the wrath of its
rivals. So, Meles Zenawi and his Minister for Information, Bereket Simon,
leaked the idea within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF, hard core
of the EPRDF) that the present Minister for Foreign Affairs, Seyoum Mesfin
could become the next Prime Minister. This immediately provoked protests,
notably from the Minister for Public Works, Arkebe Oqubay Mitiku, who
considers this candidate unsuitable for the post. The Prime Minister further
complicated the debate when he considered that all veterans of the guerrilla
struggle should leave the fore of the political scene and make way for a
younger generation of EPRDF which has not known these combats. Much the same
happened when he hinted that the future Prime Minister could be a
non-Tigrayan, whereas the majority of the TPLF executive believes the
opposite. On the TPLF side, the two most quoted names as potential Prime
Ministers are those of Seyoum Mesfin and the Minister for Health, Tedros
Adhanom Gebreyesus. In the ranks of the Oromo People's Democratic
Organisation (OPDO, governing), the name of Girma Biru is doing the rounds.
Finally, many of the leaders of the Amhara National Democratic Movement
(ANDM, pro-government formation currently going through an internal crisis),
do not appreciate the fact that a suitable Amhara candidate has not yet been
found to succeed Meles Zenawi in the post of Prime Minister.