From: wolda002@umn.edu
Date: Mon Feb 23 2009 - 23:38:12 EST
Mexico: Neither a Failed State Nor a Model
Manuel Perez Rocha | February 23, 2009
Editor: Emily Schwartz Greco
Foreign Policy In Focus
www.fpif.org
Mexico faces two serious challenges: the deepest economic slowdown in Latin
America and an explosion of drug-related violence. To the extent that these
crises are getting any attention at all in the United States, the views are
widely divergent.
On the one hand are those, including the U.S. military, who claim that
Mexico is at risk of becoming a "failed state," a label typically reserved
for truly "ungoverned spaces." Think Somalia. At the other extreme are
those, like the members of the Washington Post editorial board, who hold up
the country as an economic model for the rest of Latin America. Both views
are wildly off-base, shaped less by facts than a desire to justify — and
perpetuate — mistaken Bush-era policies.
The 'Failed State' View
The failed-state alarm bells began ringing as the Bush administration
packed its bags. In late December, the drug czar's office warned in its
National Drug Threat Assessment 2009 that "Mexico drug trafficking
organizations represent the greatest organized crime threat to the United
States." Then, in January, the U.S. military's Joint Forces Command issued
a report warning that Mexico (along with Pakistan) was at risk of "rapid
and sudden collapse." Before leaving office, CIA Director Michael Hayden
also cited Mexico's surging violence as a top threat to U.S. security, in
addition to Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Mexico, Pakistan, and Iran: Do they really belong in the same category when
it comes to global risks? Sure, security concerns south of the border are
serious. More than 6,000 people died in drug-related violence last year,
and high-profile kidnappings and killings have rattled the nation. But
labeling Mexico a potential "failed state" is a false and dangerous
distraction from the country's real problems.
While drug cartels have managed to corrupt many officials at the state,
local, and national levels of government, as well as in the police
departments and the military, there are no indications that the Mexican
state — or any individual Mexican state — is on the brink of
dissolution or disintegration. Mexico still has strong institutions that
millions of people work and struggle every day to defend, including
relatively well-functioning public services such as health and education.
Judicial, political, and military institutions, while far from perfect, can
hardly be described as on the verge of collapse.
Justifying Continued U.S.-backed Militarism
However overblown they may be, the dire statements about Mexico's fragile
state by the U.S. military and outgoing Bush Administration officials have
been used to justify a militaristic U.S. approach to its southern neighbor.
The Joint Forces Command report ominously declares: "Any descent by Mexico
into chaos would demand an American response based on serious implications
for homeland security." In his last days in office, former Secretary of
Homeland Security Michael Chertoff told reporters he'd prepared a "surge
capability" to respond to violence in Mexico.
Fears stoked by talk of a "failed state" will make needed changes in U.S.
policy all the more difficult. The Bush administration's so-called Mérida
Initiative (which mirrors the consistently failing approach the United
States has taken for years with Plan Colombia) has provided hundreds of
millions of dollars to Mexico for military hardware and training to fight
the "War on Drugs." Meanwhile, the poverty, joblessness, and widespread
corruption that are at the root of the drug problem, as well as the
continued U.S. demand for drugs and the iron river of weapons flowing into
Mexico from the United States, received scant attention.
The "Mexico as Economic Model" Perspective
Just as military interests have a stake in fueling fear about Mexico's
stability, free market fundamentalists have an interest in promoting the
country as a beacon of sound economic policies. Since Mexico became a
partner in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994,
conservatives have touted the country as a successful example of
"neoliberal" reforms, including trade and investment liberalization,
deregulation, and privatization. NAFTA promoters heralded the increase in
trade and investment flows between the three North American countries.
Never mind that these increases failed to deliver promised gains in poverty
reduction or wage growth.
Today it's clearer than ever that Mexico's unfettered opening-up to the
global economy has made it exceptionally vulnerable. The United Nations
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and the
International Monetary Fund predict that Mexico will be the hardest-hit of
all large developing countries by the global crisis because of its
dependency on the U.S. market. Forecasts are for negative growth in 2009, a
manufacturing slump, growing unemployment (750,000 jobs were lost in 2008),
and ongoing capital flight.
And yet the free-marketeers remain in denial. Recent editorials in both The
Washington Post and the The Wall Street Journal praised the soundness of
Mexico's economic reforms and applauded President Felipe Calderón as a
responsible leader (in contrast to Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and the other
"bombastic" ones on the Latin American left). Calderón has helped maintain
the illusion of prosperity by touting obscure financial indicators that
have nothing to do with the reality of Mexicans who face increasing
poverty, higher food prices and food dependency, and reduced opportunities
to find jobs in Mexico and the United States.
As the Obama administration develops its policy towards Mexico, it should
dismiss both unfounded alarmism and unbridled optimism. Mexico is in
crisis, but the roots of that crisis are the economic policies that have
created such widespread hopelessness and despair. Only through an honest
and candid examination of the facts can these two neighbors hope to build a
new partnership based on real security and prosperity.
Manuel Pérez Rocha, a Foreign Policy In Focus contributor, is an associate
fellow of the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, DC.