From: wolda002@umn.edu
Date: Thu Jan 22 2009 - 20:21:20 EST
Opinion Commentary: U.S. Foreign Policy
Is the ‘New World Order’ Changing Yet Again?
A view from Pakistan
December 2008
by Shahid R. Siddiqi
Upon the demise of Soviet Union 18 years ago, U.S. President George H.W.
Bush announced the emergence of a New World Order. He called it a path to
peace in these words: “A hundred generations have searched for this
elusive path to peace, while a thousand wars raged across the span of human
endeavor”. And he claimed that under this new world order “the rule of
law supplants the rule of the jungle, a world in which nations recognize
the shared responsibility for freedom and justice, a world where the strong
respect the rights of the weak.”
But he was to soon prove his pious pronouncements to be mere rhetoric, a
deception. Calling it an action to punish Saddam Hussain for invading
Kuwait, an act that he had initially condoned, and in collusion with his
European allies he went out to pound a hapless Iraqi army, in the process
testing out his new weapon systems on live targets and offloading redundant
ammunition on Iraqi positions, all at the cost of the frightened Arabs. The
world got a preview of the rise of a “unipolar world” to be ruthlessly
controlled and steered by an imperialist America to serve its own ends.
Avoiding war mongering, President Clinton cleverly focused on rebuilding
the shattered economy that had cost George H.W. Bush his job. His success
at creating a domineering American position with a strong economy under his
belt and substantial international goodwill - thanks to his policy of
multilateralism, he convinced the world that the “New American Century”
was at hand.
But by 2008 the picture had drastically changed. America was gasping for
breath. It was sinking deeper into the hole it found itself in. Having
exercised undisputed political, economic and military power in the
twentieth century, it was now in the throes of decline, its fall from power
imminent.
In 2000 the American people blundered by electing George W. Bush. This not
only adversely impacted their fortunes but also those of the people of the
world. Carrying an agenda of remodeling the world to suit their myopic
designs, egged on by the war machine to use aggression as a tool, 9/11
providing the pretext, pushing the policy of unilateralism and displaying
the arrogance of a ruffian, President Bush and his coterie of neo-cons
ventured out on a mission that would ultimately prove self-destructive.
Defying the will of the international community, throwing the rule of
international law out of the window, G.W. Bush attacked Afghanistan to wipe
out Al-Qaeda (that many suspect does not exist) and then Iraq that had not
even provoked any one, listing North Korea and Iran as the next battle
grounds. Justifications for attack were drummed up and people and
governments were manipulated, bullied and coerced to fall in line. NATO was
turned into an aggressive military alliance, provoking Russia and laying
ground for another Cold War.
All this was done for “good causes”, people of the world were told. It
was necessary to “rid the world of terrorism”, to “liberate people
from tyranny”, to destroy “the axis of evil” and to eliminate threats
to the security of the West.
The real agenda was, however, different. They were out to demolish
unfriendly regimes under the garb of “ushering in democracy”, splinter
and remap the Muslim world, crush Islamic groups opposed to US policies,
grab energy resources, extend hegemony into former Warsaw Pact countries
and Soviet Republics, promote the interests of American military industrial
complex that thrives on war, terrorize the world into submission and
financially gain from the resulting chaos. Like a drunken cowboy, America
was wildly shooting off the hip – totally out of control.
These actions brought nothing but ruin to America. The whimsical 3-trillion
dollar war in Iraq and the failed “'war on terror” in Afghanistan, both
executed on credit, broke the back of US economy (military spending
increased by 60%, excluding war expenditure), compromised its standing as
world power, exposed the limitations of its military strength once again,
earned universal scorn for its policies of unilateralism, subversion,
regime change and human rights violations, caused a steep rise in
anti-Americanism in the Muslim world and strengthened the Jihadi resolve to
defeat American imperialism. But this was not all.
Iran laughed off the American threats of invasion knowing its incapability
to open the third front. European allies began dissociating from US
adventurism and refused to follow Bush policies that ran counter to their
economic and security interests. Germany, France, Spain and Italy, among
others, scuttled Bush's efforts to induct Ukraine and Georgia into US led
NATO, signaling policy differences. EU refused to participate in troop
surge in Afghanistan and brushed aside Bush's call for sanctions against
Russia for counterattacking Georgia. Russia, feeling threatened by
intrusive US moves in Eastern Europe, the Caucuses and Central Asia - areas
critical to its security, responded aggressively on the issue of Georgia
and anti-missile sites in Poland and the Czech Republic.
The neo-cons proved to be out touch with reality. They refused to see that
there was a new world out there which could neither be reshaped nor
controlled by the use of brute military might. They shunned multilateralism
and refused to resort to a combination of intellectual, political and
military strengths. They ignored the fact that political and military power
is the extension of economic and financial strength, forgetting that just
about 15 years back the Soviet Union had collapsed for this very reason -
it was politically and militarily a “first world” power but a “third
world” economy. It simply could not sustain itself.
Domestically, the economic and fiscal picture turned bleak, severely
restraining America's ability to assert itself externally. National debt
approached ten trillion dollars and next year's federal budget is projected
to run in deficit of 1.2 to 2 trillion-dollars. Collapse of speculative
financial markets caused American economic meltdown that also crushed many
world economies. The dollar is under threat of being replaced as
international currency for oil trade and as world's reserve currency. Some
even speculate a US default on its debt by 2009 that may force it to
revalue the dollar, sending a wave of fear among foreign investors, causing
a liquidity crunch. In short, America faces the biggest financial challenge
since the Great Depression.
The collapse of neo-con doctrine caused Bush to retreat. He was forced to
come to terms with those he called the “axis of evil”. He negotiated
with North Korea, in a reversal of policy on Iraq he signed a troop
withdrawal agreement, he struggled to come to a tacit understanding with
Iran and, as reports indicate, he has signaled opening of a dialogue with
his most rabid adversary - the Taliban. Failure written large on its face,
America has lost its moral authority and influence as a super power, with
the diminishing limits of American power plainly visible.
A nervous nation scrambled to change guard, but was eight years too late.
The havoc wrought by Bush administration had prematurely triggered the
beginning of the end of America's era as the sole and mighty super power.
The grossly unjust and archaic economic, political and military
“uni-polar” world order, or the “New World Order” as George H.W.
Bush had called it, collapsed just 18 years after it was born and which
Vladimir Putin described in these words: “It refers to one type of
situation, one center of authority, one center of force, one center of
decision making. It is a world in which there is one Master, one Sovereign.
This is pernicious…. unacceptable …. impossible.”
President-elect Obama brings an end to a long national nightmare called the
Bush administration, but faces an uphill task. He inherits a mess of
un-surmountable proportions, including two wars that are going nowhere, a
military budget almost equal to the world's combined military budget and
increasing, severely curtailed financial resources, social programs in
tatters and the economy in deep recession. He is going to preside over a
country that goes hat in hand to its creditors asking for money to fuel its
hubris. Externally, he faces an international community irate with the
misuse of American power and happy to see it lose its monopoly. There are
no easy solutions in sight to the crises that the US imperialism has
created for itself and for others. His commitment to “change” would be
a tall order. By the time he gets even close to shutting the Pandora's box
that Bush had opened, set his house in order, curb the establishment's urge
for futile self destructive wars and substantially reduce military
spending, put the economy back on track and establish America's soft
international image, political realities around the globe would have
substantially changed. Far reaching geopolitical developments would have
given rise to a new power-paradigm.
World's economic epicenter has shifted to Asia. Emerging economies are
poised to play a greater role in world affairs. An economically strong
China is positioning itself as one of the future super powers. Resurgent
Russia is beginning to reassert itself. Western Europe, secure from Soviet
threat, recovered from its back-breaking wars and wary of American
arrogance, is breaking free of American protectionism.
A “New Multi-polar World Order” is now emerging that is likely to
create a balance of power with a hope for stability. Some even prefer to
call it the Real World Order in which the US will no more be able to
control the international agenda. Smaller countries of Asia that bore the
brunt of America's aggressive policies are taking a sigh of relief at the
demise of American imperialism, remaining skeptical of the shape of things
to come.
But despite all of its troubles, America cannot be written off, not
completely, not yet. Although its power has prematurely reached its limits
and will likely decline, America remains for now the biggest military power
and the biggest economy, though not strong enough to wage wars. The US
National Intelligence Council in its report “Global Trends 2025” also
admits that the US will remain the most powerful yet less dominant country
in years to come. The new administration will therefore have to accept
America as one of the great powers, as opposed to being the only power
center that it was, and transit from the mindset of arrogance to that of
humility that Obama has promised.
Shahid R. SiddiqiShahid R. Siddiqi began his career in the Pakistan Air
Force. He later joined the corporate sector with which he remained
associated until recently in a senior management position. Alongside, he
worked as a broadcaster with Radio Pakistan for over 11 years where, among
other programs, he compered a daily English program 'Pakistan Calling'. He
also remained the Islamabad bureau chief of an English weekly magazine,
"Pakistan & Gulf Economist". After immigrating to the U.S. in 1989 he
co-founded the Asian American Republican Club in Maryland to encourage the
participation of Asian Americans in the mainstream political process. He
currently lives in Lahore (Pakistan) and works as a freelance journalist.
He can be reached at: shahidrsiddiqi@gmail.com.