Coups, strikes, repression - Sudan saw it all this year, with no end in
sight, says Asmaa Al-Husseini
Friday,28 December, 2012
In 2012, Sudan witnessed many recurring crises on all fronts. The year that
followed the secession of South Sudan witnessed no peace, stability or
prosperity that the Sudanese people on both sides of the border were told
would follow separation. The partition occurred quickly under international
sponsorship without giving either side even a chance to agree on border
markers, or legal and political arrangements for this great calamity.
This is what the Sudanese people have suffered over the past year that
witnessed tensions between the two Sudans, peaking in April during the war
in Heglig, after which the world community quickly intervened out of fear
the two countries would declare all-out war. This resulted in Resolution
2046 that penalises the party that obstructs a peaceful settlement.
Since then, the two sides have reached partial agreements without effective
mediation by Africa, which fears that a setback would return the Sudanese to
the point of war. The most notable of these agreements is one over oil that
Juba halted in January, resulting in depriving both itself and Khartoum of
revenues from it. Oil represented 75 per cent of Sudan's overall national
income before partition.
More recently, an agreement was reached to create a demilitarised zone on
the border between the two nations, but Khartoum is linking all this to
security arrangements - meaning an end to Juba's support of rebels against
the North, specifically, the Northern Branch of the Popular Movement which
is escalating battles with Khartoum in the southern governorates of Kordofan
and Blue Nile. The Northern Branch also partners with the armed Darfur
rebels in the Kauda Alliance, which has meant a crisis in South Sudan and
creates a second south for North Sudan after the first South seceded.
This violence has spread to the east, west, north and south of Sudan, posing
a serious threat to the unity and integrity of what is left of Sudan if the
ruling Salvation regime continues its policies. The regime has been in power
for nearly 25 years without learning anything from its long term in power
which has produced disastrous outcomes, including secession without peace
and ongoing wars in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile.
The world community, government and Sudanese parties are reproducing one
crisis after another by re-proposing partial solutions that have already
failed in the past, which do not take into consideration the crisis as a
whole. This triggers more crises and problems despite the ceasefires and
truce agreements.
Matters have evolved beyond armed operations and include protests across the
country since the beginning of the year, with several Fridays of Rage taking
place. Accordingly, many Sudanese citizens feel their Spring had arrived,
but the regime quickly responded with excessive violence to silence them for
months before they flared up again at the end of the year in many regions in
Sudan. Many fear that taking up weapons and rebellion will be the only way
out if the government continues to stifle peaceful forms of expression and
protest, while muzzling the press, media, party activities and once again
resorting to security crackdowns on all issues.
What makes it even more difficult for the Sudanese people is difficult
economic conditions because the revenue from the key resource for both
Sudans - oil - has dried up. This is reflected in all aspects of life even
though most oil revenues in both countries was spent on arms, politics and
corruption, which leaves citizens in both countries suffering.
The biggest threat facing the regime of President Omar Al-Bashir over the
past year was not his opponents whom he has tried to weaken and infiltrate
during his quarter of century in power, or the International Criminal Court
that is pursuing him for committing war crimes, genocide and crimes against
humanity in Darfur. It isn't even the vicious rebels that are escalating the
war against him in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile. The threat comes
from within his own party and Islamic movement.
There were two - some say three - coup attempts last year, most prominently
an attempt that resulted in the arrest of Colonel Salah Qosh, the former
chief of intelligence, and other army officers. Despite the ambiguity
surrounding this coup and contradictions in interpreting it (whether it was
an all-out coup or the regime taking preemptive measures against parties
forming a broad alliance as an alternative regime), it is a significant
indicator of the turmoil and exchanges in the corridors of power and among
Islamists in Sudan. Meanwhile, there is a chronic crisis across the country
which in their view requires comprehensive solutions, not piecemeal or
partial or truncated solutions that add fuel to the fire.
Many Islamists sense and express the need for reform and change in many
forms, through testimonials for reform and actions, most notably at the
Sudan Islamic Movement (SIM) conference in Khartoum which concluded with
unexpected results that contradicted their ideas and discussions about
reforming the ruling party, the Islamic movement and the state. These
demands were not taken seriously, which recreated crises and escalated
tensions.
Many observers believe that Qosh's coup would not be the last and others
like him want to save SIM and their homeland from grave danger. Al-Bashir's
mysterious illness and two surgeries have brought the issue of succession to
the fore, with many circles inside and outside Sudan discussing the possible
alternatives.
Both the peaceful and armed opposition also continue to repeat the same
mistakes and failed experiments, without learning any lessons from the past.
They continue to confront the government and masses with the same divisions,
fragmentation and indecision.
Meanwhile, fledgling South Sudan seems to have inherited the same faults as
the country it rebelled against and added its own mistakes. The
marginalisation, corruption, constraints and mistakes the people revolted
against are still being practiced in their new country. Tense relations with
North Sudan and resulting security, economic and social pressures have also
played a key role in directing developments.
The future of both Sudans in the new year continues to depend on the ability
to overcome current circumstances and to move towards a new position based
on a new formula, where no one party monopolises decisions and excludes all
others. Also, desperately needed is an atmosphere that allows real
comprehensive solutions that resolve, not conceal, crises or suffice with
cosmetic alterations.
Without this, catastrophic scenarios and ruptures will most likely continue
to unfold as conflicts continue.
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Received on Thu Dec 27 2012 - 18:04:28 EST
