Africa: Politics of Succession - Coping When Leaders Die
By Kingsley Ighobor, 01 December 2012
In December 2008, a Guinean newspaper published a photo of a frail and
ailing President Lansana Conté, who appeared to be struggling to stand up.
The photo stoked rumours of the president's ill health.
Its publication also angered the country's political elite, who hastily
ordered the editor's arrest. By the next day, on the instructions of
security operatives, the publication's front page carried an even bigger
photo of Mr. Conté - this time smiling broadly and looking spirited. But he
died just a week later, justifying the newspaper's initial resolve to let
Guineans know that his health was failing.
The head of the National Assembly, Aboubacar Somparé, later explained that
leaders hid the president's "physical suffering in order to give happiness
to Guinea."
Mr. Somparé's clumsy explanation implied a need to avoid succession
squabbles and potential violence. Yet six hours after the president's death
was officially announced, the army staged a coup, suspended the constitution
and threw the West African nation into political turmoil.
Succession squabbles
While Guinea's military, after a period of chaos and yet another coup,
eventually organized democratic elections, the muddled aftermath of Conté's
death draws attention to the broader issue of how African nations manage
successions when their leaders die in service.
Ten of the 13 world leaders who have died in office since 2009 were African.
In 2012 alone, presidents Malam Bacai Sanha of Guinea-Bissau, John Atta
Mills of Ghana and Bingu wa Mutharika of Malawi, as well as Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, have all died.
Some countries have handled succession better than others. As chaotic as
they were, the developments in Guinea were not as dire as the more recent
situation in Guinea-Bissau.
Since President Sanha died in January from an illness, the country has been
embroiled in an ongoing transition crisis, with the military mostly
controlling the affairs of state.
Malawi, on the other hand, had a relatively successful transition after
78-year-old President Mutharika's fatal heart attack in April. But the
process could have gone off the rails when some cabinet members tried to
have the late president's younger brother, Foreign Minister Peter Mutharika,
sworn in, instead of Joyce Banda, the vice-president and constitutionally
designated successor.
This effort followed the late president's expulsion of Ms. Banda from the
ruling party to pave the way for his brother. When he died the political
class was divided between those who cited the late leader's intentions and
those who wanted to follow the constitution.
Many Malawians agitated against any deviation from the constitution,
supported by donors, including a strong message from the US State
Department: "We trust that the vice-president, who is next in line, will be
sworn in shortly." And she soon was.
It is important to avoid such succession problems, argues Tesfaye Habisso,
an Ethiopian writer and former diplomat. "Stability, predictability and
continuity in leadership are important ingredients of good governance and
are assured by a well-planned and -managed succession strategy."
The rule of law
Succession strategies need to be strictly constitutional, argues a 2011
report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US
think tank. The report specifically draws attention to oil-rich Angola,
governed since 1979 by José Eduardo dos Santos, who is now 70.
While the country is now at peace, and its economy is growing, the CSIS
report expresses concern that the established rules of succession could be
violated because of infighting within the ruling People's Movement for the
Liberation of Angola (MPLA). Some MPLA factions oppose the current
vice-president.
Most African countries' constitutions specify that when a leader dies in
office, his or her deputy or the head of the national assembly will step in
until an election can be held. Some leaders, however, expect the designated
"heir apparent" to display fawning personal loyalty.
If he or she does not, political conflict can arise. In Nigeria, for
example, Vice-President Atiku Abubakar had a frosty relationship with then
President Olusegun Obasanjo, who wasted no time arranging Mr. Abubakar's
expulsion from the ruling party.
Some African leaders have groomed relatives as successors. When President
Omar Bongo of Gabon died in 2009, the ruling party named his son, Ali Bongo
Ondima, who was foreign and defence minister, as the new president.
Presidents Faure Gnassingbé of Togo and Joseph Kabila of the Democratic
Republic of the Congo succeeded their deceased fathers.
Yet picking a relative can spark a revolt, maintains the CSIS report, citing
the case of Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak's intention to install his
son as his successor added to the opposition that erupted in the revolution
of early 2011. In Burkina Faso, indications that President Blaise Compaoré
may be grooming his younger brother, François, as a successor have stirred
considerable controversy.
Constitutions should be followed strictly when a president or prime minister
dies, says Adewalo Banjo, an expert in African development. Without the rule
of law, he argues, there can be "constitutional somersaults which bear all
the hallmarks of what ridicules Africa before the world."
Signs of progress
The rule of law certainly prevailed in Ghana after President John Atta Mills
died in July. Unlike in Malawi, there was never any doubt as to who should
take charge.
Vice-President John Dramani Mahama took over the mantle of leadership in
line with constitutional requirements and promptly rallied a distressed
nation. Ghana's seamless transition reflected the strength of its democratic
system, in which ruling parties have twice handed over power to the
opposition, after electoral defeats in 2000 and 2008.
Nevertheless, while a strong democratic tradition can facilitate smooth
successions, considerations of political power may get in the way.
When Nigeria's Umaru Musa Yar'Adua died in May 2010, some Nigerians demanded
that another northerner be sworn in instead of Vice-President Goodluck
Jonathan, a southerner. Mr. Jonathan eventually prevailed.
Following the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in August, the succession
process in Ethiopia was also successful despite initial hitches.
There had been speculation that Mr. Meles' deputy, Hailemariam Desalegn,
although a member of the ruling circle, could not be trusted with power
because he did not belong to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a
former militant group once led by the late president and still a powerful
faction within the ruling party.
Ironically, the case for Mr. Hailemariam was made on the basis of ethnic
considerations: to defuse tensions associated with the TPLF's domination
over the years and to placate the Wolaytas, an ethnic minority that had
never had a member at the summit of power.
Ultimately, Ethiopia's ruling group rallied around Mr. Hailemariam, who was
quick to promise a continuation of Mr. Meles's policies "without any
change."
Ethiopia, Ghana and Malawi - the three latest cases of smooth succession
following the death of a leader - provide evidence that Africa is gradually
getting its transitions right. Succession can be a frequent problem even in
developed and stable democracies, because it is all about political power,
says Minion Morrison of Mississippi State University in the US.
It is even more problematic if a leader dies in office. After the mess that
surrounded the illness and death of Nigeria's Mr. Yar'Adua, writer and Nobel
laureate Wole Soyinka sent a simple message to African leaders: political
succession should not be a matter of "do or die" politics.
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Received on Sun Dec 02 2012 - 10:29:16 EST
