US-Yemeni terror obsession will not solve Yemen's woes
Ibrahim Sharqieh
Nov 13, 2012
_____
Analysis
Among the world leaders who congratulated President Barack Obama for winning
a second term last week was the Yemeni president, Abdrabu Mansur Hadi. From
the Yemeni leader's point of view, the most important aspect of Mr Obama's
reelection is perhaps the issue of the continuation of a US-Yemeni war on
terrorism.
In the congratulatory cable, President Hadi "reiterated that the
Yemeni-American partnership will continue to advance and the cooperation in
the fight against terrorism will progress". Mr Hadi praised his American
counterpart's "achievements in curtailing the threat of terrorism and
highlighted the linkage between global interests with the performance of the
US administration". No other Yemeni subjects were raised in the cable.
The prominence given to antiterrorism efforts in the US-Yemeni relationship
recalls the days of the old regime. Under Ali Abdullah Saleh, there was
consistent controversy about whether the former president was sincere in his
fight against Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), or was just
manipulating the cause to secure more military aid and support to his
regime.
This is not to suggest in any way that Mr Hadi is manipulating the security
cause, but to mention "terrorism" twice in a short note of congratulation
raises questions about Mr Hadi's approach to the challenges facing Yemen and
his strategies for moving the country forward.
Mr Hadi's appetite for tighter collaboration on security and antiterrorism
seems to be motivated by his successes in the Abyan province, where AQAP
militants have been driven out of several cities they'd controlled during
the uprising against Mr Saleh (including Lawdar, Jaar, Zinjibar and Shaqra).
AQAP moved into the remote province during the uprising in Sanaa, taking
advantage of a collapse of security beyond the capital. Then, for probably
the first time in its history (it was formed in 2009), AQAP abandoned its
traditionally secretive approach and expanded into civil governance in
Abyan. AQAP controlled police stations, regulated traffic and solved local
disputes.
A collaboration of Yemeni boots on the ground, along with American drones
overhead, led to the decisive collapse of this experiment in AQAP
governance.
It also brought promises of even more antiterrorism funding from the US. The
Washington Post reported in July that to consolidate this US-Yemeni security
collaboration, "the US military is preparing to give more than $100 million
in counterterrorism and security aid to [Yemen] this year".
Before President Hadi reiterates his commitment to taking security
collaboration to the next level, he, along with the US, should be assessing
to what extent the collaborated effort has indeed been successful.
First of all, the collapse of AQAP governance in Abyan does not weaken the
organisation in terms of its ability to attack. It only returns the
organisation to its previous state, as a clandestine group that plans and
hits selected targets, either in Yemen or abroad. Governance has never been
part of organisation's mandate. Renouncing its hold on Abyan may actually
even end up strengthening AQAP, as it relieves the group from the burden of
governance.
Furthermore, the Yemeni army did not provide the full protection needed
after the fighting and left the local tribes who fought as part of the
alliance with the US military vulnerable, in particular to retaliatory
attacks from AQAP. In fact, AQAP responded in August with a suicide bombing
that targeted a funeral in the city of Jaar, killing 45 people.
If the Yemeni-American security alliance does not address the needs of the
local tribes, it is unlikely they will be around when the next fighting
begins. In other words, providing security and maintaining order takes more
than just drone attacks with no strings attached.
In north-west Pakistan, the same model has led to the alienation of local
communities and turned them to easy recruiting targets for Al Qaeda. In
Yemen, an estimated 200,000 people displaced by the fighting are still
unable to return to their homes.
President Hadi's emphasis on "the Yemeni-American partnership in the fight
against terrorism" should deal with the root causes of the problem rather
than treating it merely as a matter of military aid and arms. That is the
failed model that his predecessor used for years.
At the top of the list of root causes for the spread of terrorism is
poverty. The UN's World Food Programme reports that food insecurity in Yemen
had doubled in the last two years, leaving approximately 45 per cent of the
population short of food. An estimated 300,000 children are facing
malnutrition, while unemployment exceeds 46 per cent.
Equally important are the challenges facing President Hadi on the political
front. The political settlement - or GCC initiative - that brought him to
power is facing serious obstacles almost one year on from its signing in
Saudi Arabia. Loyalists of the former president are still actively advancing
their own agenda. The national dialogue process that was supposed to take
place months after the signing has not even started. And there is now talk
of the Southern movement boycotting the dialogue. Unless the political
settlement produces result soon, Yemenis will begin to question where the
political process is really taking them.
The results the Yemeni people expect are definitely not those emphasised by
President Hadi in his cable to the American president. Rather, the focus
from both Mr Hadi and his American counterparts should be on meeting serious
development objectives.
Yemenis need to see hope, not drones. Failure to reorient the US-Yemeni
relationship in this way will only add further pressure to the fraught
political settlement, and bring its collapse one step closer, an outcome
that would damage the ability of both the US and Yemen to advance security,
stability and development in the country.
Ibrahim Sharqieh is a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution,
deputy director of the Brookings Doha Centre, and adjunct professor at
Georgetown University in Qatar
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Received on Tue Nov 13 2012 - 10:05:01 EST
