With uncertainty surrounding Museveni's plans, there are a number of
candidates who could take over Uganda's presidency.
Back in 2001, during a hotly contested presidential race, Ugandan President
Yoweri Museveni told voters that, if re-elected, this would be his final
term and urged the electorate to support him one last time.
In that election, Museveni was, for the first time, facing a strong opponent
in Kizza Besigye who ran against the president again in 2006 and 2011. Over
the past decade, Besigye has been Uganda's central opposition symbol and
figurehead, redefining Uganda's political landscape and drawing a faction of
Museveni allies to his own ranks. Meanwhile, President Museveni's popular
support is declining.
However, while recent surveys suggest that many do not support Museveni's
'Project 2016' re-election bid, they also suggest that Besigye is not
necessarily the first choice for his replacement.
Museveni vs. Besigye
Museveni and Besigye have been political rivals for over a decade, but their
history together stretches further back than that. Besigye served as
Museveni's personal physician in the National Resistance Army (NRA), and
after the group's ascent to power in 1986 held ministerial appointments in
the National Resistance Movement (NRM) government. In 1989, Besigye
re-joined the army, first as a battalion commander, then as the chief of
logistics and engineering. This firsthand knowledge of military deals made
him cynical about NRM leadership, particularly where military procurement
was concerned.
In 1998, he applied to leave the army after publicly criticising top figures
in the military and government. But the fallout between the two men started
in earnest in 1999 when, still serving as an army officer, Besigye authored
a dossier attacking Museveni's regime for "losing track" of the original
ideals of the NRA's bush war. He cited corruption, nepotism, and other
undemocratic tendencies. The army threatened to court-martial Besigye, but
he escaped punishment with a hurried retirement.
In a move that is said to have taken even Museveni by surprise, Besigye soon
after announced that he would stand against his former boss, promising to
reform Ugandan politics. Since then he has lost three times in president
elections, including in 2006 after Museveni had removed presidential term
limits allowing him to run again.
Over this time, some Ugandans think the contest between Museveni and Besigye
has degenerated into an obstructive personal rivalry, long since ceasing to
be a political contest. If this about politics, "there would be different
faces on Uganda's political scene", Ndebesa Mwambutsya, a political history
lecturer at Makerere University, explained to Think Africa Press, "It
wouldn't be Museveni versus Besigye".
More Museveni?
After 26 years of Museveni rule, the voices within the ruling party urging
him to retire in 2016, before the next election, are growing louder. But his
loyalists are singing a different song, and some of his lieutenants seem to
be paving the way for him to run again.
However, Museveni's re-election would not be easy this time round. Civil
societies, especially religious leaders, are calling for an end to
Museveni's prolonged rule and for the reinstatement of presidential term
limits. Museveni has responded by telling religious figures to told "mind
their business" and leave politics alone, but retired Assistant Bishop of
Kampala, Zac Niringiye insisted to Think Africa Press that it is their right
to discuss the political future of Uganda. "We want him to retire
peacefully", Niringiye explained. "We don't hate him. We are telling him to
retire honourably."
Debate and uncertainty surrounding Museveni's succession has also bred
internal fighting within the NRM and the president may faces challenges from
within. The NRM seems increasingly dominated by a newer generation of
members interested in political change and a group of young NRM legislators
has threatened to break away and form a new political party.
Challengers within the party
There are also a number of groups in the ruling party with favoured
candidates for the presidency in mind. Until a recent falling out, Prime
Minister Amama Mbabazi had been widely perceived as Museveni's most likely
successor, and there is a prominent pro-Mbabazi camp within the NRM. But
since Museveni seemed to want to run again, this faction has become quieter,
realising a battle against Museveni would be one they would be unlikely to
win.
The prime minister's biggest undoing has been his public image. He is seen
as aloof, arrogant and is accused within NRM circles of being a plotter. He
has also allegedly been involved in many corruption scandals, and been
accused of misusing his influence in a land deal worth 11 billion Ugandan
shillings ($5.5 million). An even more dramatic corruption case almost saw
him censured by parliament for allegedly misusing money meant for security
gadgets during a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Kampala in
2007.
Mbabazi's current silence may however be a tactical withdrawal, and the NRM
should not be surprised if he reignites his intention to contest for the
highest office in the country in a few years' time.
Another possible contender for the presidency is First Lady and Minister of
Karamoja Affairs, Janet Museveni. However, even if Museveni retired in 2016,
the transition of power from husband to wife would probably be seen as an
intolerably crass monopolisation of power within one family.
Another candidate could be Speaker of Parliament Rebecca Kadaga whose
popularity is rising not only within the ruling party, but even amongst
opposition. A number of women activists praise her for her impartiality
while presiding over the national parliament.
Public opinion divided
But what does the electorate think? A survey conducted by Research World
International in 2011 and released in May 2012 indicates that 55.6% of
respondents belonging do not want Museveni to run again. On Besigye, 45%
said he should stand again while 43% opposed the idea.
Asking NRM supporters who the next leader of the NRM should be, 13.8%
favoured the First Lady, 13% former vice-president Gilbert Bukenya, 11.5%
Kadaga and 8% favoured Mbabazi. Amongst all respondents (NRM and non-NRM
supporters alike), however, the most favoured presidential candidate was
Kadaga.
The 2016 elections are still a long way away and a lot could change in that
time. However, if internal divisions within the NRM deepen into pronounced
factions, the party's ability to compete at the elections may be
significantly weakened. In this instance, the downfall of Museveni and the
NRM would not have been the work of Besigye and the opposition over several
hard-fought years, but the result of intrigue and mudslinging within the
ruling party itself.
Risdel Kasasira is a Ugandan journalist with seven years of experience in
journalism. He has reported widely on politics, security and wars in East
and Central Africa. He has been in Somalia many times covering the conflict
in the Horn of Africa. He has also been in South Sudan, Central Africa
Republic and DR Congo many times to report on the Ugandan army operations
against Lord's Resistance Army rebels and its elusive leader Joseph Kony. He
has also reported from the Ugandan Parliament for two years.
------------[ Sent via the dehai-wn mailing list by dehai.org]--------------
Received on Thu Nov 08 2012 - 18:56:09 EST
