National dialogue in Yemen aiming to correct the failures of unification
November 08, 2012 01:30 AM
By Nasser Arrabyee <
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Nasser-Arrabyee.ashx>
The Daily Star
Abed Rabbou Mansour Hadi, the transitional president of Yemen, is doing
everything he can to bring the different groups in his country to a national
dialogue planned for the middle of November 2012. The discussions are
expected to last for six months and to address a range of issues related to
the transition.
If successful, the dialogue is supposed to come out with a vision for a
"civil state" - a goal that almost all the included groups have talked about
in one way or another - and to begin with the presidential election in
February 2014, and to include the drafting of a new constitution for the
country. But if the dialogue fails, civil war looms ominously as a likely
outcome. There are a number of challenges that might lead to the dialogue's
failure.
Among those is the issue of southern secessionists, or the Peaceful Southern
Movement (Al-Hirak Al-Salmiyy Al-Janubi) - alternatively the Southern
Separatist Movement. Hirak, as it is known locally, has no unified
leadership, and a number of different visions each claim to speak for the
whole movement.
All, however, are concerned with three things: correcting the failures of
Yemeni unification, the application of federalism, and the degree of
southern autonomy or independence.
One group, for example, is inspired and supported by the former president of
South Yemen, Ali Salem al-Baidh - in exile since his defeat in the 1994
civil war. They believe that the southern part of Yemen is "occupied" by the
north, and struggle for an independent south. This group wants the dialogue
to lead the restoration of a southern state. A different former President of
South Yemen Ali Nasser Mohammad (also in exile) leads another group; they
talk about a federal system in which Yemen might be divided into three or
five regional states.
The majority of southerners have long complained of being politically and
socially marginalized after the 1994 civil war - which erupted less than
four years after a north-south union was proclaimed.
"The issue of the south is an issue of land and wealth that was looted,"
said Mohammad Haidara Masdous, a Hirak leader. "It is an issue of identity
and history that was obliterated for the favor of the north."
Nearly all parties and politicians in Yemen note that Hirak's participation
is the key to the dialogue, which is difficult due to the group's amorphous
nature. If Hirak is convinced of unity, then most of the other disgruntled
groups will follow - namely, the Shiite Houthis in the north, who present
similar challenge. Dr. Abdul-Kareem al-Eryani, the deputy chairman of the
People's General Congress (to which some 50 percent of the national unity
government belongs, and is headed by former President Ali Abdullah Saleh)
and head of the technical committee for preparing for the dialogue, said:
"It's impossible to have a successful dialogue without the participation of
Hirak."
A number of prominent Islamists feel likewise. Mohammad Qahtan, a leading
member of Yemen's leading Islamist party, Al-Tajamm'u Al-Yamani Lil-Islah
(known informally as "Islah") said: "To bring the dialogue to success, the
problems of the south should be solved first." Islah has dominated the
political coalition of opposition groups that led protests against Saleh and
the PGC last year. The coalition, known as Joint Meeting Parties, includes
Islah, the Yemen Socialist Party (which ruled the south before unification
in 1990), Nasserites and Baathists, as well as two smaller Islamist - Zaydi
- parties. That Zaydi groups - a moderate Shiite sect found almost
exclusively in the north - are in coalition to support the Southern cause is
a significant sign of non-partisanship.
Others feel differently. Professor Adel al-Shugaa, a history professor at
Sanaa University, believes that Islamist groups would obstruct any dialogue
that leads to an agreement about establishing a civil state, although the
largest Islamist party Islah raises the slogans of a civil state.
"The Islamist groups consider the civil state to be something against
Islam," Mr. Shugaa said. "Islamists refuse the notion that Muslims be equal
to non-Muslims, and refuse equality between men and women."
There are other complications. Islah insists on having Hirak in the
dialogue, but it has its own interests in the mix competing under the banner
of southern autonomy. One of Hirak's main leaders Abdullah al-Nakhebi -
recently appointed in September at the coordinating committee of the
national dialogue - is viewed as having strong ties to Islah.
Islah now comprises the largest opposition party in Yemen, and has
tremendous influence on Hadi through its tribal, religious, and military,
leaders.
These traditional forces still dominate the larger political and social
scene in Yemen exactly as they did under Saleh - indeed, Hadi hails from the
same party - and stand to lose a great deal if the dialogue comes out with a
solid vision for law and order.
To this end, there are some who believe the new regime to be allying itself
with Islah against Hirak and the Houthis - despite calling them to
participate in the national dialogue - so as to preserve a unified Yemen and
their place in it. Islamists want to keep the unity, but they do not want
secularism and socialism of the south. The "real" Hirak knows this very
well.
"Bringing all groups to the dialogue will not necessarily lead to success,"
said Sami Ghalib, a political analyst. "The problem is that the gaps between
the new regime and Hirak and the Houthis are getting wider and wider." That
both groups allegedly receive funding from Iran doesn't help matters.
Sporadic clashes have erupted between Islamist supporters of Islah and the
Houthis in Saada, Hajja, and al-Jawof; Islah has likewise clashed with Hirak
in the southern city of Aden.
Activist Afra al-Hariri, who herself hails from the south - doesn't believe
that the problems of the south have changed, even after a southern president
came to power: "Insecurity, exclusion, marginalization, absence of equal
citizenship, and the same faces who were ruling us are still there being
repeated," Hariri says. Success for the dialogue, she points out, lies in
two contingents - and the onus is on the north: "The tribal speeches against
the south should stop, and fatwas [religious decrees] should stop."
Tribal and religious anti-southern rhetoric dates back to the civil war and
continues to raise southern ire. Incidents date back to 1994, when the
then-Justice Minister and Islah-affiliated northern religious leader
Abdul-Wahhab al-Daylami (and later, the influential preacher Sheikh
Abdul-Majeed al-Zindani) issued fatwas declaring southern socialists of
being kafirs (infidels), and called for holy war against them.
More recently, northern tribal leader Sadeq al-Ahmar, declared earlier this
month that he would lead a war against southerners who would not participate
in the dialogue. Both statements were widely condemned by northerners and
southerners alike.
Additionally, the activities of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
continuously attempt to thwart any political success also present a security
challenges. Despite this, however, some insist that Al-Qaeda participate as
long as the Houthis and Hirak - both of which are armed entities - are going
to participate.
Opponents to Hirak's participation accuse southerners of jockeying for
power. "It is not a matter of power. If it were a matter of power, the
current president is from the south, said Mohammed Haidara Masdous, a Hirak
leader. "The prime minister is from the south, and the defense minister is
from the south. But it is not an issue of power."
But the situation on the ground is such that Yemenis cannot establish a
national rule of law without the help of players outside the looming
north-south tensions. To this end, The U.N. envoy to Yemen Jamal Bin Omar
has even opened a permanent office in Sanaa to monitor closely the
implementation of the transitional deal and the two resolutions of the U.N.
Security Council on Yemen crisis.
An important factor that will affect the success or failure of the national
dialogue is international and regional support. Hadi and the unity
government cannot do anything without external players, whose support is
vital. At present, though, such backing seems enough to ensure that the
dialogue will be held - and all groups represented, even despite the
difficulties. But the problems of north-south tensions will likely remain
unresolved after November, and Yemen's civil war anxieties will likely
remain until the rhetoric - and the suspicions behind them - change
entirely.
Nasser Arrabyee is a Yemeni journalist based in Sanaa. He has reported for
The New York Times (among others) and blogs on Yemeni affairs at
<
http://narrabyee-e.blogspot.com/>
http://narrabyee-e.blogspot.com/. This
commentary first appeared at Sada, an online journal published by the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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Received on Thu Nov 08 2012 - 13:54:10 EST
