Analysis: Dialogue and divisions in Yemen
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National dialogue set to start 15 November
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President squeezed between powerful factions
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Southern question could derail process
SANA'A, 6 November 2012 (IRIN) - Nearly a year after a Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC)-brokered deal set Yemen on a theoretical path towards
political transition, the country remains deeply divided amid increasing
poverty.
A Technical Committee, formed in July and charged with organizing the
transition, includes all major groups, except Hirak (the Southern Movement),
and is seen by many as neutral and legitimate. It has released a 20-point
action plan, but so far not a single recommendation has been implemented.
The GCC deal stipulated <
http://www.yemenpeaceproject.org/wordpress/?p=458>
national dialogue as the main way of moving forward. Delayed by two months,
it is due to begin on 15 November.
Many are frustrated with the slow pace of reform. "The new Yemen is the same
as the old Yemen. The same leaders who were in [Ali Abdullah] Saleh's regime
are still there, the only one who is gone is Saleh," said journalist Nasser
Arrabyee.
Nevertheless, the GCC agreement has helped to avoid civil war, Tim
Petschulat, country director of German NGO the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in
Yemen, told IRIN - a fact that is often overlooked by many Yemenis who feel
the revolution has been hijacked by elites.
Others feel the dialogue process is too opaque for ordinary Yeminis.
"It is perceived as being elitist," Colette Fearon, country director of
Oxfam Yemen, told IRIN. "The challenge is: How do you enable dialogue on all
levels of society?"
Young people also feel marginalized. The transitional government only
includes members of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) and the General People's
Congress (GPC). Young people who started the revolution and who occupied
squares with their protest camps, have been largely sidelined, which has led
to resentment.
According to a September 2011 report by local think tank Domains Centre for
Research and Studies, some 2,195 people were killed between February and
August 2011 (the peak of the protests). Of these, 238 were young
revolutionaries/protesters, 600 soldiers of pro- and anti-revolution units,
and the remainder civilians/tribesmen supporting the youth uprising or
opposing it.
Elections in February 2014?
A second stage of the transition process covering the next six months
envisages agreements on nine topics such as public service reforms and
protection of minorities; and a new constitution is supposed to be created
ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections in February 2014 - a
time-frame that might be unrealistic.
"I can't see how this could be implemented till February 2014. The dialogue
needs to deal with many fundamental topics," said Petschulat. "If we want to
see a genuine process led by Yemenis themselves, this timeframe will not
work."
Another obstacle to dialogue is that many ordinary Yemenis are preoccupied
with survival. With the economic situation worsening, many have exhausted
their coping mechanisms.
According to the World Bank, poverty levels rose from 42 percent of the
population in 2009 to 54.4 percent in 2012, with those in rural areas, women
and 507,970 internally displaced persons,
<
http://www.oxfam.org/en/policy/still-waiting-change-yemen> worst affected.
"People are struggling to survive and do not see the government responding
to their basic needs. If they do not see the reforms trickling through, they
are not going to feel that they are affected positively," Fearon said.
Hadi's fight with the army
Meanwhile, President Hadi is struggling to
<
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-president> restructure the army and trust in his ability to implement the
GCC agreement is waning.
He lacks a power base and is caught between two rival commanders - Ahmad Ali
Saleh, son of the ex-president, and Gen Ali Mohsen. The former controls the
Republican Guards and the latter the First Armoured Division.
Both commanders had hoped the GCC agreement would help reduce their rival's
military power. So far only the influence of the ex-president's family has
been reduced, something their supporters say proves that the revolution was
nothing more than a plot led by Mohsen, writes the influential
<
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gu
lf/yemen/125-yemen-enduring-conflicts-threatened-transition.aspx>
International Crisis Group.
"Either commander may trigger chaos if the dialogue doesn't help him retain
his post and influence," said Rajeh al-Hasani, a military analyst from Abyan
Governorate.
The relatively balanced composition of the 25-member Technical Committee
shifted when Hadi appointed to it six more men (widely seen as supporters of
al-Ahmar and Mohsen).
Furthermore, a recent government reshuffle saw Hadi appoint to leading
positions people from his home district of Abyan, an ominous sign, say some.
Ex-president still pulling the strings?
Many analysts believe the ex-president is still very active in Yemeni
politics, not least through his son.
JMP member parties are calling for the exclusion of the ex-president from
politics (he is still president of the GPC), and the removal of his
followers from key posts in the army. "Saleh was given immunity from
prosecution to quit politics," Sadiq al-Ahmar told IRIN.
One goal of the GCC agreement - the demilitarization of major cities - has
only partly been achieved. Houses of influential leaders are still guarded
by well-armed militias.
"Members of HTC [the pro-JMC Hashid Tribal Confederation] claim they are
seeking a civil state, but their actions don't imply this. Their houses in
Sana'a are filled with weapons," senior GPC member Ali Senan al-Gholi told
IRIN.
Houthis
While the Shia Houthi rebels in the north might criticize what they see as
US and Saudi meddling, they say they are willing to take part in the
national dialogue.
The Houthi insurgency, which began in earnest in 2004, rumbles on in the
north of the country. While some see the Houthis as part of a proxy war for
regional influence between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Houthis themselves say
they are merely fighting for a greater say in running their own affairs.
Sporadic clashes with Salafis (who view the Houthis as infidels) have taken
place in the northern Amran, Hajjah and al-Jawf governorates.
The fighting has also led to huge displacement. According to the UN Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as of September 2012
the conflict in the north has led to 323,992 people being
<
http://www.unhcr.org/4c907a4a9.html> displaced.
Houthi leaders criticize Hadi for allowing the US to interfere in Yemen's
domestic affairs. "How can we engage in a dialogue with the US ambassador
present at the table? We will not participate in a dialogue supervised by
America that kills Yemenis with their drones," Dhaifullah al-Shami, a senior
Houthi leader, told IRIN.
One analyst believes all groups in Yemen are primarily concerned about their
own personal interests. "Their personal interests are the be-all and
end-all," said Abdurrahman al-Marwani chairman of local NGO Dar al-Salam
Organization.
The Southern question
The Southern Movement (Hirak) is not taking part in the national dialogue.
With more than 70 percent of the country's oil and gas resources in the
south, many southerners feel the decision to merge the southern People's
Democratic Republic of Yemen and the northern Yemen Arab Republic in 1991
was a mistake. There was a two-month civil war in 1994.
Activists and analysts in the south say increasing tensions in the south are
due to intransigence on the part of leaders from the north. "How can we have
dialogue with those who are still illegally grabbing our property?" Najla
Abdulwasea, an activist in Aden, asked.
"Not everybody wants separation in the south. But people want an open
dialogue without red lines. Hirak rejects the GCC agreement because of the
preservation of `a united Yemen' as the goal of national dialogue," the
Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Petschulat told IRIN. "There is no trust that
any government in Sana'a will ever do anything for the south."
"These [northern] sheikhs haven't changed their ways yet and are dragging
the country into further division and fragmentation," said Tareq al-Harwi,
another activist in Aden.
Mohammed Bel-Ghaith, a professor of Law at Aden University, feels Hirak does
not have a choice: "How can the southerners accept dialogue given this
unfair treatment? People of the south have to boycott the dialogue and
escalate their struggle until their rights are restored."
Petschulat thinks that it would be rational, if Houthis, Hirak, Socialists
and others built an alliance to push for a federal state with a strong
parliament, to counter those who want to maintain central control: the GPC,
which sees its most important political achievement - unity - in jeopardy;
the Salafis who fear that it would be harder to lobby for a more powerful
role of religion; and the Al-Ahmars whose influence would be restricted to
their resource-poor homeland Amran.
"But so far, the leading narrative within Hirak is for separation,"
Petschulat said. "Between insistence on a central state and the call for
separation - a federal option seems to be the natural compromise, since the
north is not likely to let the resource-rich south go, and since the
international community has no love at all for southern independence. It
boils down to two possibilities: a real federal state or civil war."
Key players
General People's Congress (GPC) - A political party led by the ex-president
and backed by powerful tribal and military figures who served under him, as
well as those who still hold key military and security posts.
Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) - A coalition of six major parties, backed by
wealthy sheikh Hamid al-Ahmar; his senior brother Sadiq, who leads the
Hashid Tribal Confederation (HTC); and Gen Ali Mohsen.
The Southern Movement (Hirak) - Hirak has been demanding separation since
2007 and a return to the pre-1990 independent state in the south.
Houthis - A Zaidi-Shiite rebel movement in the north which is fighting to
reinstate the pre-1962 rule of a Zaidi Imam. Allegations have been made that
the group is supported by Iran and lately by ex-president Saleh.
Two rival army commanders - Ahmad Ali Saleh, son of the ex-president, and
Gen Ali Mohsen Saleh. The former controls the Republican Guards and the
latter the First Armoured Division.
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Photo: <
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Members of the Southern Movement (Hirak) raise the South Yemen flag
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Received on Tue Nov 06 2012 - 09:19:05 EST
