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http://www.africa-confidential.com/browse-by-category/id/15/WEST_AFRICA>
WEST AFRICA -
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http://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/4643/Regional_confrontation_l
ooms> Regional confrontation looms
19th October 2012
Support in the UN and Europe is growing for a west African military force to
push out the entrenched jihadist groups in northern Mali
The developing plan to oust the jihadist forces controlling northern Mali is
moving forward, with regional security talks in Bamako starting on 19
October and a meeting between the Algerian and French Presidents on the
following day. So far, much of the effort has gone on military and
logistical coordination, without much thought on any side about the equally
important question of political strategy.
There is a danger that a poorly conceived military campaign could draw many
states in the region into a lengthy and bloody conflict, at least as
catastrophic as Somalia’s two-decade civil war. If anything, the prognosis
for West Africa is more ominous than it was in the mid-1990s for Somalia. It
is more complex and less self-contained than the Somali crisis. Local
jihadists, Ansar Eddine and the Mouvement pour l’unicité et le jihad en
Afrique de l’Ouest (MUJAO), have secured most of the key centres in northern
Mali, where they profit from highly lucrative drugs, arms and people
smuggling operations.
Their close allies from Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (dominated by
Algerians) are now well entrenched. United Nations experts report
collaboration on military training, bomb-making and arms shipments between
the jihadists in northern Mali and groups such as Boko Haram from Nigeria.On
15 October European foreign ministers commissioned a plan to deploy 150
senior military trainers to work with Mali’s national army. The aim is to
rebuild the army, whose command structures, discipline and fighting
capability have disintegrated over the past nine months. The ministers want
the plan finalised for their 19 November meeting.
The multiple layers of negotiation for the 3,300-strong intervention force
from Ecowas member states underlines its complexity. The operation over a
desert region the size of France will require formidable logistics and
airpower. On the West African side, Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane
Ouattara as new Chairman of Ecowas is the titular leader of the
intervention, but he faces a new insurgency at home from forces loyal to
ousted President Laurent Gbagbo. Reports that Gbagbo’s forces may be teaming
up with dissident Malian fighters and jihadist groups may have increased his
determination to intervene. Ghana is preparing for elections on 7 December
and Senegal’s President Macky Sall says his army is over stretched.
Mauritania’s military is in crisis, after the purportedly accidental
shooting of President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz (see Feature).
Algeria’s intelligence on AQIM and its role in regional security (it has
said publicly that it will not join the intervention) will be top of the
agenda in the meeting in Algiers between Presidents
<
http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/896/Abdelaziz_Boutef
lika> Abdelaziz Bouteflika and François Hollande on 20 October.
Nigeria, with the biggest military in the region, was the leading force in
previous Ecowas interventions. However, it is currently grappling with Boko
Haram’s insurgency in its northern states, which may limit its practical
contribution. The UN’s overarching role in the intervention was established
on 12 October, when the Security Council gave Ecowas and the African Union a
45-day deadline to produce a detailed plan. This will set out ‘means and
modalities’ – strategy and a breakdown of the personnel and budget needed to
launch the intervention.
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Received on Fri Oct 19 2012 - 17:13:36 EDT
