The joint Kenyan Defence Force (KDF) and African Union Mission in Somalia
(AMISOM) forces have achieved their goal of taking control of Kismayo, which
was Al-Shabaab's last stronghold.
While taking Kismayo represents a huge victory for AMISOM, it does not mean
that the threat of Al-Shabaab has been eradicated. There are indications
that Al-Shabaab is planning to resort to unconventional warfare methods,
including deploying suicide bombers and other guerrilla tactics, to make the
area ungovernable.
The people of Kismayo remain concerned that Al-Shabaab has simply blended
into the local population. They may be hesitant to show their support for
AMISOM, as this may unwittingly court a reprisal from Al-Shabaab, putting
their lives at risk. Now, however, the population is still gradually warming
to AMISOM's presence. AMISOM also faces the challenge of securing Kismayo,
as Al-Shabaab left booby traps and unexploded improvised explosive devices,
which are not always easy to identify. The KDF is currently busy removing
such devices from the town.
It remains to be seen what Al-Shabaab will do next, but it is probable that
it will move on to bigger towns, and start engaging in unconventional
warfare. The fact that AMISOM managed to take control of Kismayo with
relative ease indicates that Al-Shabaab may be changing its game plan.
AMISOM should remain alert and not become complacent because of its 'easy'
victory. Al-Shabaab may be mutating, and may soon start engaging in
guerrilla-type warfare.
AMISOM's immediate challenge is to keep Kismayo under control, and to win
the hearts and minds of the people. However, it is possible that the war in
Somalia is taking a new turn and that AMISOM has not even seen the
beginning.
After the taking of Kismayo, Al-Shabaab released a video of a French
national it had taken hostage three years ago. While it could be using this
video to make money off the hostage situation, it is also a message that
Al-Shabaab is still a relevant actor in Somalia.
The situation remains fragile and AMISOM has to exercise great care in how
it proceeds in ongoing attempts to form a local authority, in order not to
exacerbate existing clan tensions. The fact that the KDF was involved in the
taking of Kismayo may be used by Al-Shabaab to claim that Somalia has been
'invaded'. If it succeeds in doing this, it may be easier for the group to
gain access to more arms. Somalia may yet see another showdown between
AMISOM and Al-Shabaab.
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Received on Thu Oct 11 2012 - 17:43:08 EDT
