U.S. Embassy Attack In Yemen Makes West Uneasy Over Ali Abdullah Saleh's
Role In Transition
By Andrew Hammond
SANAA, Oct 1, 2012 (Reuters) - Seven months after he reluctantly handed over
the presidency, Ali Abdullah Saleh's continuing sway over Yemen is worrying
Gulf neighbours and Western nations who fear that the political transition
could descend into chaos.
While Saleh is held responsible by many Yemenis for the more than 2,000
deaths during last year's uprising, it was the storming of the U.S. embassy
on Sept 13 that appears to have jolted Western countries into changing their
view of a man long seen by Washington as its best bet for containing
militants.
Soldiers of two units under the control of Saleh's relatives allowed
hundreds of protesters through checkpoints around the embassy, a Yemeni
security source and Western diplomats said. Breaking through to the inner
building, they ripped plaques and lettering from outer walls and tried to
smash secure glass doors.
President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi has promised an investigation into the
incident, which followed protest calls by Sunni cleric Abdul-Majeed
al-Zindani - designated a global terrorist by the United States since 2004 -
and the Zaydi Islamist group Ansarallah, also known as the Houthis.
One of Saleh's sons used Facebook to deny accusations that embassy guards
had acted suspiciously. He said the Interior Ministry should have sent in
riot police.
"We share the concern over the role that the former president and those
hardcore elements around him are playing right now," a senior Western
diplomat in Sanaa said, adding they were undermining the government and
hindering the transition.
"We do have concerns about their resistance to following the legitimate
orders of President Hadi."
STABILITY IS A PRIORITY
Restoring stability in Yemen has become an international priority for fear
that Islamist militants will further entrench themselves in a country
neighbouring top oil exporter Saudi Arabia and lying on major world shipping
lanes.
The writ of central government authority has further weakened in the chaotic
unraveling of Saleh's system of rule. The uprising lifted the lid on myriad
social and economic problems facing an impoverished country of 24 million
people.
Of all the complications to reestablishing state control, including southern
secessionists, a Zaydi Shi'ite revival movement tussling with Sunni
Islamists and a covert U.S. missile war on militants, the role of
Washington's former strongman in Sanaa has emerged as perhaps the most
pressing.
Despite the immunity granted to him under the power transfer deal, Saleh
could still face the fate of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak as activists push for
ways to have him prosecuted. Mubarak was sentenced to life imprisonment in
June for complicity in the deaths of protesters during Egypt's uprising.
Sidelined since Hadi's election in February, Saleh still wields influence
through his control of the General People's Congress (GPC) party, a ruling
coalition partner, and through powerful relatives who run elite military and
security units.
Saleh has warned in recent comments that the Arabian Peninsula state's
transition process could descend into chaos, depicting himself as being
central to Yemen's territorial unity.
Further, forces loyal to Saleh's relatives have repeatedly mutinied against
Hadi's efforts to reorganise the armed forces, staging attacks on the
Interior and Defence Ministry buildings.
But pressure on Saleh has grown in recent months.
Thousands of Yemenis have protested against the U.S.- and Saudi-backed power
transfer deal which offered Saleh his immunity from prosecution in exchange
for stepping down.
The government agreed last month to set up a commission of inquiry into
violations committed during last year's uprising, and a transitional justice
law could also be passed soon.
"People have an obligation to fulfill the terms (of the transition) and not
change them," the diplomat said. "But that doesn't mean we have to sit by if
there is evidence that Saleh is violating the laws of Yemen now and it
doesn't mean he shouldn't be held to account for that."
EMBASSY ATTACK A WATERSHED
The embassy incident has spurred Western states shepherding the transition
into action.
Senior diplomats of ten countries, including Gulf Arab states, European
Union members, the United States and Russia, agreed in Sanaa two weeks ago
to recommend their governments start preparing possible measures against
transition "spoilers".
"They agreed there should be some effort to gather evidence that might point
the finger at those who might be considered in violation of U.N. Security
Council resolution 2051," said one who was involved in the meeting.
The June resolution calls for a smooth transition, accountability for "all
those responsible for human rights violations and abuses", and "security
sector reform and changes in senior appointments in the security and armed
forces".
The diplomat said names were being collected among supporters of Saleh,
"extremist elements" of the Sunni Islamist Islah party - an apparent
reference to Zindani and other clerics - and figures from the southern
secessionist movement.
"I don't think there's anything imminent regarding sanctions," a U.N.
diplomatic source said in New York, but he added: "Sooner or later it will
come to that." He said Russia and China were on board with the U.N. moves.
Analysts say Saleh, his party and others may be able to avoid that fate if
they contribute to a national dialogue intended to map out a new political
system this year.
"Can we force the GPC to accept the idea of a democratic, civilian state in
the dialogue and that rivalry should be regulated through the ballot box? We
need the GPC to accept this," said political scientist Mohammed
al-Mutawakkel.
STILL IN YEMEN
The fourth Arab leader to be unseated in "Arab Spring" protests, Saleh spent
several weeks in the United States for medical treatment just before he left
office. The U.S. ambassador in Sanaa said two weeks ago it would not be
possible to grant him a visa for now, but gave no more details.
Once abroad, Saleh would be open to petitions under international law or
domestic laws of any country he stayed in. He recently said he had no
intention of leaving Yemen.
"Revenge dominates in Yemeni society. If people feel wronged and no one
gives them justice they will try to get it themselves in any way," said
Human Rights Minister Hooria Mashhour.
At least 129 activists disappeared during the uprising and hundreds of
"enforced disappearances" throughout Saleh's rule still remain unaccounted
for, provoking a campaign of portraits on public walls by activists seeking
redress.
The capital still bears signs of last year's confrontation, with pock-marked
and destroyed buildings such as Yemenia Airways offices in Hasaba. The fear
remains that street fighting between former allies under Saleh's rule will
return, or that Houthi-Islah confrontations could spread.
Political analyst Abdulghani al-Iryani said there was little chance of the
old order reestablishing itself, though Saleh and the north Yemeni tribal
and religious elites would try to resist the shift to decentralisation.
"It's impossible. If you look at the historical patterns, his regime
survived for so long against the law of gravity," Iryani said. (Additional
reporting by Louis Charbonneau in New York, Editing by Sami Aboudi and Samia
Nakhoul/Janet McBride)
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Received on Mon Oct 01 2012 - 14:24:22 EDT
