<
http://reliefweb.int/country/som> Somalia-Next Steps are Important for
Sustaining Progress
Report
-
<
http://reliefweb.int/organization/iss> Institute for Security Studies
19/09/2012
Andrews Atta-Asamoah and Tarryn Warries, Senior Researcher and Intern,
Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division, ISS Pretoria
After more than two decades of insecurity, Somalia has made important
progress towards the realisation of peace. Apart from the great successes in
extending security beyond Mogadishu, a number of commendable strides have
been made on the political front as well. This is characterised by the
successful swearing-in of more than 200 parliamentarians on 20 August 2012
following the adoption of a provisional constitution by the National
Constituent Assembly and the subsequent selection of a Speaker and deputies
for the House. Apart from signifying the resolve of various stakeholders to
make sure that the transition process is not extended once again, the
overall gains made signify the collective resolve of the Somali people to
part with decades of instability and to chart a peaceful future.
Additionally, the businesses springing up in Mogadishu and the
reconstruction efforts also indicate what the Somali people are capable once
the threat of insecurity is sustainably dealt with.
While we wait for these achievements to be capped with the election of the
president and the imminent 'liberation' of Kismayo, it is important that
caution is exercised in ticking the final boxes so as not to undermine and
derail the progress made. Currently, three important issues require a great
deal of deliberation as they are important determinants of post-transition
peace and the sustainability of 'gains' made in the country.
First, grievances emerging from the imperfections of the on-going peace
process have to be dealt with. The selection of the 135 traditional leaders,
the composition of the Constituent Assembly and nomination of candidates
from the various clans for the new parliament, allegations of seat-buying,
intimidation of elders, and the rejection of certain preferences and
nominations by the Technical Selection Committee (TSC) have all caused
discontent among certain stakeholders. Apart from the tussle over replacing
rejected nominees, ensuing attempts to seek redress by raising the issues in
various corridors of power, including the courts, speak to the entrenched
interests and emerging discontent that must be dealt with. If these
simmering tensions are not dealt with, the chances of their leading to the
emergence of bitter losers in the upcoming elections are very high.
Related to this is the perception of the 'referee/player syndrome' that has
bedeviled the political process. This is the situation whereby the primary
stakeholders in the transition process are also competitors in the political
playing field. Consequently, some individuals are not just officials of the
game but also players whose political destinies are intertwined with the
outcome of the transition process, with the result that their neutrality is
undermined. There were reports of leaders within the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) using the selection process as their campaign grounds and
in essence hijacked the transitional process for their own political ends.
The involvement of then-President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Prime Minister
Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, and the Speaker of Parliament, Sharif Hassan Sheikh
Aden, in the selection of the traditional elders has been raised as a
concern. There is a perception that their involvement placed them in a
unique position to control the process and select elders who support their
cause. This has given rise to concerns over an uneven playing field in the
run-up to the presidential election, by creating a contest between those
enjoying incumbency and those without it. This is notwithstanding recent
reports of massive corruption by elements in the TFG and allegations of the
misappropriation of funds.
The second important issue relates to dealing with losers in the
transitional process, particularly the presidential elections. Like every
presidential election, the 10 September contest in Mogadishu will produce
losers and winners. In this peculiar case, the losers matter the most. If
care is not taken in addressing emerging grievances, the elections will most
likely produce bad losers who are capable of sabotaging the peace process.
Related to that is the move to try and rid the emerging government of
everyone with a shady past or links to armed groups. Laudable as the idea
is, it falls into the trap of the unending debate about the timing of
transitional justice processes and consolidation of peace. The question is
whether Somalia needs to bring on board all actors in the interest of peace
or deny some actors participation in the name of maintaining the integrity
of the process. While this remains a crucial debate, there is a need to be
mindful of the thorny nature of choices made around this crucial question in
the quest for sustained gains in Somalia.
The third issue is the need to plan for a post-transition Al-Shabaab. While
the capture of Kismayo is both eminent and likely, there is no guarantee
that its loss and the associated loss of funding imply an end to
Al-Shabaab's operations and influence in the country. A large part of the
country will remain ungoverned for a long time and will continue to provide
safe havens for the operations of the group, for example the bases of the
Galgala militia in northern Somalia. This needs to inform the choices of the
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and its allies so as to prevent
the current security challenges from being exported to other parts of the
country, or even the region.
A defeat in Kismayo might imply a change in Al-Shabaab's tactics from its
current hybrid of guerrilla and conventional attacks to purely Boko
Haram-style guerrilla attacks, employing hit-and-run tactics capable of
making the state ungovernable. It could also imply a miniaturisation of its
bases and presence as a means of cutting expenses, but also as a guerrilla
tactic. It might try to capitalise on the mistakes and failures of the new
government and by its presence put a lot of pressure on the government to
deliver on security and other government services. Whichever way the group
might choose to reinvent itself or evolve, there is a need for
post-transition political and security dynamics to factor its existence into
consideration, if any sustainable peace is to be achieved.
The walk and work towards peace in Somalia is a long way from over. The
presidential election will be another important milestone in the incremental
progress that is being made towards achieving peace. To sustain the gains
made so far, stakeholders need to be meticulous in their choices in
addressing the emerging issues so as not to derail the process.
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Received on Wed Sep 19 2012 - 18:04:44 EDT
