Too much scope for confusion for most Somalis and much expectation as Hassan
Sheikh Mahmoud is elected new president, contends
<mailto:gnkrumah_at_ahram.org.eg?subject=Region%20::%20Somali%20cauldron%20gets
%20hotter> Gamal Nkrumah
13 - 19 September 2012
_____
Somalia does God. But not, unfortunately, all that well. Hassan Sheikh
Mahmoud was elected as Somali president on Monday amid a multiplicity of
fanfares. The critical reason why he won by such an impressive margin was
that he declared the use of democracy creatively to resolve ideological and
political disputes. He vowed to remain neutral over specific claims -- clan
and tribal.
The overriding reason for his landslide victory, however, was that he knows
the formula of how to fix the Somali economy.
The Somali president-elect has laid out his vision for a new Somalia and he
understands all too well that inconsistent posturing does not strengthen
democracy. God, no doubt, played a part.
The Somali parliamentarians can innovatively discuss the merits of democracy
even if they never agree on a universal interpretation of Islam.
It is to the thornier problem of how the Somali political establishment acts
on behalf of tribes and clans and of an elite that espouses many divergent
values and that is convinced that secularism is the best solution for
contemporary Somalia that the presidential race is fought. There are four
main presidential candidates with the greatest potential.
The Somalis are waving the cerulean blue flag again with their lone
five-spangled white star. There were 25 presidential candidates, but only
the outgoing president and the president-elect had any real chance of
winning. This is the first time since 1991 that a Somali president is
elected on Somali territory, albeit at the airport.
Hitherto, Somali presidents were elected in neighbouring Kenya or Djibouti
where there are large ethnic Somali communities. Signs of aggression
continue among Somali tribal chiefs and clan leaders. The president-elect
and the Somali National Assembly are publicly discussing their options, but
these appear to be limited.
The outgoing president Sherif Sheikh Ahmed scored a paltry 76 per cent while
the president-elect garnered 190 votes. Some Somali, regional and
international analysts commend the outgoing president for his handling of
the Somali political impasse so far.
Moussa Hassan Abdallah, a former army general, was appointed interim speaker
of the Somali National Federal Parliament. This is an indication that the
militarisation of the Somali political entity is still in place. Prime
Minister Abdel-Wali Mohamed Ali, was born in Puntland, northeastern Somalia
and holds US and Somali citizenship. His dual nationality was not regarded
as a problem. However, the fact that he decided to withdraw from the
presidential race at the 11th hour indicates that the Somali political
establishment is not particularly welcoming to the large expatriate Somali
community.
Yes, the professionals and technocrats living abroad are encouraged to
participate in the governing of the country and keep their foreign passports
and dual nationalities, but the post of president is reserved for local
leaders with powerful tribal connections. The former prime minister was a
profound professional but he was not a local player.
Ominously, the assemblage to select a president was held at the police
headquarters in Mogadishu. Fluent in Somali, Arabic, Italian and English Ali
is married to a medical practitioner, Hodan Isse, who founded HEAL, a
Buffalo-based NGO. Yet, this was a factor that was not in the least taken
into consideration. These signals were all pointers.
But even if Isse was discounted there is the wider issue of women in
politics in Somalia. Women are systematically sidelined. But even if the
president-elect is successful in ignoring ideologically driven advice by
Salafis, tribal elders and religious leaders and clerics to restrict the
role of women in Somali politics, there is a group of players the ex-prime
minister will not be able to dismiss so lightly.
To begin with, 215 of 275 MPs were sworn in passing the benchmark of 185.
Many women were excluded on the grounds that tribal traditions do not permit
women to represent their tribes in any national political forum. The Quran
and the hadith (the sayings of Prophet Mohamed) presumably corroborate this
stipulation. The Somali women parliamentarians vehemently protested.
Protected by African Union troops, Somalia's new parliament was sworn-in at
a controversial albeit colourful ceremony convened at Aden Adde
International Airport, Mogadishu.
The gathering has already been marred by women's protests at the exclusion
of women from being represented at tribal gatherings and representing their
respective tribes and clans in parliament. "We will fight for our full
representation," vowed MP Luul Abdi Ibrahim who is one of the few women to
make it to the male-dominated parliament. It will take some time for Somalia
to stabilise its nascent democracy.
Government social responsibility is a concept that has been imported from
the United States and could be sent back any time, especially if the
Islamists gain the upper hand.
The real question is how anyone will get anything done under the perennial
threat of the lurking militant Islamists. This is demanding, but possible.
The president-elect says he is up to the task. Then there is a host of
economic challenges. One is the issue of employment opportunities and
joblessness, especially among the youth. This is a major cause of the
militarisation of Somali society and the attraction of the youth to Islamist
militias.
Welcome to a theme that can become a thorn in the flesh of the new Somali
government under the leadership of the president-elect. The exclusion of
women from representing their tribes and clans has ruffled feathers in
Somalia.
So what Somali tribe does the president-elect hail from? He hails from the
Abgaal Hawiye tribe, one of Somalia's largest and most influential tribes
and that may account for his popularity. He is also known as a pious man, an
important consideration in a predominantly Muslim country. The president of
Somalia will have to diffuse pent-up tensions. As it happens, the fault
lines might crack open.
Ex-president Sherif Sheikh Ahmed was accused of being incompetent especially
in the face of rampant corruption. He himself was considered clean, but his
hangers-on were suspected of thievery.
The Somali president-elect would be wise to continue in that vein. The
gesture might entail a political cost for the Somali president by
aggravating various critics. In turn, the Somali leader should give a better
indication of what he would do with restoring a failed state to well-being.
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Received on Sun Sep 16 2012 - 17:33:43 EDT
