KAMPALA Sep 15 (Reuters) - Uganda has denied supporting rebels fighting in
the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo after the U.N. Security
Council rebuked unnamed countries it said had offered the M23 group
assistance.
Under pressure from the West to cut links to the M23 insurgency in the east
of DRC, Uganda and Rwanda publicly say they want a regional force to tackle
the rebels. However, regional powers are deadlocked on the force's make-up.
Following are political risks to watch in Uganda.
M23 REBELS
Although regional states have agreed to a 4,000-strong force to try to
neutralise the M23 rebels, Western diplomatic sources are sceptical the
force will get off the ground.
No progress was made on the force's composition or financing at a heads of
state meeting this month in the Ugandan capital, Kampala. Rwandan President
Paul Kagame was a no-show.
The U.N. rebuke, which diplomats said was aimed at Rwanda and Uganda could
foreshadow a downturn in relations between Kampala and its donors who have
already punished Rwanda by suspending aid for its alleged links with the M23
rebels.
PROTESTS
Plans for a resumption of anti-government street protests have faltered amid
a fall in some food prices and a reluctance by opposition activists to
confront the police after last year's harsh crackdown.
However, Uganda's main opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, is still keen to
galvanise popular dissatisfaction over the high cost of living and
corruption to topple his veteran foe President Yoweri Museveni.
ANTI-GAY LEGISLATION
A bill calling for harsh penalties against homosexuals has been reintroduced
in parliament by a legislator from the ruling NRM party.
Passage of any draconian anti-gay legislation could prompt some
international donors to cut aid, which accounts for a quarter of the current
financial year's budget.
OIL REFINERY DISAGREEMENT
A dispute has emerged between UK explorer Tullow Oil and the Ugandan
government over the size of a planned refinery, threatening to delay
commencement of production for the country's emerging petroleum industry.
Failure to agree on the refinery and slow progress in enacting long-awaited
oil laws is likely to delay development of key oil production infrastructure
for a country hungry for oil revenues to scale up public expenditure and
boost service delivery.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, TENSIONS
Uganda has said it would back its northern neighbour South Sudan (SS) if it
got sucked into a war with its long-time foe Sudan. However, a war in SS, a
lucrative market for Uganda's exports, could hurt the economy.
Museveni's hitherto warm relations with Washington could also suffer a chill
over his reluctance to cede power after U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary
Clinton, said she had told the long-serving leader in a recent visit to
consider his "legacy". (Editing by Richard Lough and Andrew Osborn)
C Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved
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Received on Sat Sep 15 2012 - 17:15:23 EDT
