Ethiopia: Changing Rainfall Boosts Number of Ethiopians in Need of Food Aid
14 September 2012
Addis Abeba - Millions of Ethiopians face severe food shortages as a result
of the failure of crucial seasonal rains, a problem increasingly linked to
climate change.
The Ethiopian government announced last month that 3.7 million of its
citizens will require humanitarian assistance between August and December of
this year, up from 3.2 million in January. The 16 percent increase follows
the failure of the Belg rains, which normally fall between February and May
and are essential to the country's secondary harvest.
The lack of rainfall is being blamed on climate change, with experts saying
it is leading to erratic rain patterns and disruption to normal seasonal
changes.
Mohamed Ahmed, a farmer in his early 40s, is one of the millions dealing
with the consequences of the rainfall changes. He feeds his family of seven
by farming a one-hectare (2.5 acre) plot inherited from his father in the
village of Doba in the east of the country, 325 km (203 miles) from the
capital, Addis Ababa.
But Ahmed's land has declined in productivity over the past two decades,
even as the size of his family has grown.
"Last season (Belg) I (could) barely sow," the farmer said grimly. "The rain
came almost a month later than the usual time. It is sometimes heavy and
sometimes light. The yield is not impressive at all."
Agriculture is the backbone of the Ethiopian economy, employing 62 million
people (about three-quarters of the population), ensuring more than 85
percent of the country's export earnings and contributing 43 percent of GDP,
official figures show.
Most parts of Ethiopia have two rainy seasons and one dry period. Long heavy
rains from mid-June to mid-September, known as kiremt, enable the main crop
growing season, Mehir, which leads to a harvest from October to January.
The shorter and more moderate Belg rains are important for short-cycle crops
such as wheat, barley, teff, and pulses, which are harvested in June or
July, and for long-cycle cereals such as corn, sorghum and millet.
FARMING MORE LAND
Faced with deepening food insecurity and poverty as a consequence of
changing weather conditions, the government has responded by trying to boost
agricultural production.
Ethiopia harvested more than 218 million quintals of crops in the most
recent Mehir season, surpassing the previous season's production by 13
million quintals and beating government targets by 3 million quintals,
according to the government's Central Statistical Authority. Produce from
smallholder farms grew by 7.4 percent compared to the same season last year.
The increases are due to additional land being put under cultivation,
following large-scale resettlement programmes by the government, aimed at
relocating farmers to more productive land. The government has not yet
produced an official tally of number of people resettled, but unofficial
figures give the total as more than 1.5 million over the past five years.
More than 12.8 million hectares (31.6 million acres) of land are now under
cultivation in Ethiopia, almost one million hectares (2.5 million acres) or
8 percent more than in the last Mehir season.
Despite the increased yields, production is still less than 90 percent of
the amount required to provide sufficient nutrition to all the population,
according to a report issued last year by the Ethiopian Economic
Association, a nongovernmental organisation.
Throughout the country, prices for staple foods remain relatively high, and
with inflation hovering around 20 percent in July, they are not expected to
decrease before the next harvest enters the market, experts say.
The failure of the Belg crop is raising fears of a humanitarian crisis among
organisations working to provide drought relief in the country.
In July, the World Food Programme (WHP) forecast a significant drop in
long-cycle Mehir crops such as maize and sorghum in many lowland and
mid-altitude areas of Ethiopia during the next harvest season, following
below-average Belg rainfall. The majority of crops produced in Ethiopia are
categorized as long-cycle crops, needing at least six months to grow.
In a speech last month, Abdou Dieng, the WFP's humanitarian food coordinator
in Ethiopia, said that the lateness and weakness of the Belg rains had taken
a toll on agricultural production in areas of the central highlands,
particularly in the regional states of Southern Nations, Nationalities and
People's Region, central Oromiya, and eastern Amhara.
Pastoralist areas also have been hard hit and "vulnerability remains high
due to the lingering impact of last year's drought emergency," Dieng said.
Somali and Oromiya are the regional states most affected by food shortages,
together accounting for two-thirds of those seeking relief assistance.
While the Belg harvest accounts for no more than 10 percent of the country's
total annual grain production, it may provide up to 50 percent of the yearly
food supply in some highland areas, such as Wollo and Shewa regions, experts
say.
PASTORALISTS AFFECTED
The Belg rains are also the main annual rains for the pastoral and
agro-pastoral areas of southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, where they
supply critical pasture and water for livestock. Even in regions where the
rains do not irrigate an extra harvest, they are still crucial for seed-bed
preparation for Mehir crops.
The failure of the Belg crop ironically comes at a time of strong economic
growth for Ethiopia. Speaking at a national workshop for disaster reduction
last year, the state minister of agriculture, Sileshi Getahun, cautioned
that the country's growth rate of 11 percent for the past seven years was
vulnerable to changes in the climate.
"While we are proud of this achievement and realize the benefits, we are
also aware of how much natural disasters can hinder growth," Getahun said.
"These disasters are becoming more regular and pronounced in terms of
frequency, intensity, and coverage due to climate change."
Pawlos Belete is a journalist based in Addis Ababa.
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Received on Fri Sep 14 2012 - 13:45:46 EDT
