Ethiopia: What Might Desalegn's Premiership Bring?
Supported by the US but less popular with the TPLF, it is unclear if
Ethiopia under Hailemariam Desalegn will see a continuation of Meles-style
governance.
31 August 2012 - 4:19pm | By
<
http://thinkafricapress.com/author/yohannes-woldemariam> Yohannes
Woldemariam
Ethiopia is moving into an uncertain new era. With the death of Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi who had ruled the country since 1991, the country is
moving into the realm of the unknown with regards to politics and
leadership, and internal divisions within the Tigrayan People's Liberation
Front (TPLF) - the main part of Ethiopia's ruling coalition the Ethiopian
People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) - are already revealing
themselves.
Hailemariam Desalegn, the relatively unknown deputy prime minister, has
taken over the reins of power in the interim. The United States is
reportedly advising the TPLF to support the premiership of Desalegn, a
Wolayta from southern Ethiopia, but it is believed that some TPLF loyalists
would prefer the leadership to remain in the hands of a Tigrayan.
US-Ethiopia relations
Under Meles, Ethiopia and the US have enjoyed a close relationship. Ethiopia
is a key strategic ally in the US' 'War on Terror' and one the largest
recipients of US aid, receiving <
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2859.htm>
$6.2 billion in US government assistance between 2000 and 2011.
This marriage of convenience benefited both parties, but with questions
increasingly being asked, the US may not be able to approach Ethiopian
politics in quite the same way after Meles. In the last few years of his
reign, the once untouchable PM witnessed intensifying
<
http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/08/21/ethiopia-transition-should-support-human
-rights-reform> scrutiny from human rights organisations, growing
opposition, and a critical diaspora
<
http://www.voanews.com/content/ethiopian-diaspora-media-compete-over-messag
e/1105765.html> media getting better at countering TPFL propaganda. There
was also growing acknowledgement that Meles was repressive and undemocratic
amongst once admiring Western media, and after his death many major networks
<
http://www.economist.com/node/21560904?zid=304&ah=e5690753dc78ce91909083042
ad12e30> described him as a dictator.
Many leading Western politicians and economists ignored the dark side of
Meles' rule, allowing themselves to be mesmerised by his mastery of
economics and intellect, but this is unlikely to be the case under Meles'
successor. How US policy towards a post-Meles Ethiopia might change remains
to be seen, but there may be some indications in the US' actions over the
past days.
After Meles' death, the US pushed for Hailemariam Desalegn to take over the
reins of power. President Barack Obama
<
http://www.voanews.com/content/ethiopia-prime-minister-hailemariam-desalegn
/1495058.html> called Desalegn personally, and urged him to assert himself
and promote "development, democracy, human rights, and regional security".
Desalegn's ethnicity is significant and attractive to the US as he is
neither Amhara nor a Tigrayan, two ethnic groups that have a history of
rivalry in Ethiopia. The fact that Desalegn is Wolayta, a somewhat
marginalised group on the periphery of Ethiopian society, is perceived to be
an asset that could give Desalegn broader legitimacy, insulate him from
criticism, and allow him to present himself as an underdog protected from
the historical baggage of the Amhara and Tigrayans.
Having another Tigrayan at the head of Ethiopian politics could contribute
to instability and endanger
<
http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2012/ethiopias-meles-zenawi-and-sec
urity-in-the-horn-of-africa/> security in the region including Somalia,
which convened its new parliament on the same day as Meles' death. Many see
the appointment of Desalegn as a solution to growing opposition at a fragile
time.
Reception from within
Although now holding the role of interim prime minister, Desalegn appears to
be little more than a figurehead. Ethiopian political analyst Jawar Mohammed
<
http://www.voanews.com/content/hailemariam-ethiopia-new-leader/1494044.html
> described Desalegn's appointment as mostly symbolic and believes Desalegn
is a puppet. Meanwhile Berhanu Nega, mayor of Addis Ababa and former
political prisoner,
<
http://thecitizen.co.tz/sunday-citizen/-/25212-ethiopias-new-leader-faces-h
eavy-burden-of-expectation> dismissed him as a political novice and compared
his role with that of Dmitry Medvedev as president of Russia under Vladmir
Putin. In the case of Ethiopia, Putin is a group of TPLF power brokers who
operate in the shadows. These influential political actors have mostly shown
reluctance at the idea of Desalegn as the new prime minister.
The rank and file in the TPLF object to losing the premiership to a
non-Tigrayan and many
<
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000064811&story_title=Power-scra
mble-after-premier%E2%80%99s-death-puts-fragile-state-on-the-edge> back Azeb
Mesfin, Meles's wife, to rise to premiership in due course. Seyoum Mesfin, a
TPLF veteran, former foreign minister and current ambassador to China is,
however, reportedly the main power behind the scenes. Under pressure from
the US, he may have accepted Desalegn as a figurehead premier but is finding
it difficult to sell this to the Tigrayans within the ruling party.
Desalegn, who studied Water Engineering in Finland, was apparently well
liked by Meles, but was never part of the guerrilla movement that brought
Meles to power and, as a non-Tigrayan, may have difficulty gaining the
loyalty of the military which largely rests in the hands of Tigrayans.
Although he was acceptable as Meles's deputy, the TPLF who control the
military power, security systems and state companies may view passing the
premiership to a non-Tigrayan as risky.
With all these complex dynamics to deal with, it is unclear to what extent
Desalegn will be able to define an independent course, though it is perhaps
telling that government communication minister has said that government
policy will remain consistent under Desalegn.
Indeed, initial signals with regard to Ethiopia's openness have not been
encouraging. A few days after Meles' death,
<
http://www.cpj.org/2012/08/ethiopia-frees-prominent-journalist-drops-all-ch
ar.php> Temesgen Desalegn (no relation of the new PM), editor of Feteh
newspaper was
<
http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/ethiopia-detention-editor-signals-continuati
on-meles-era-crackdown-2012-08-23> imprisoned in a continuation of policy
under Meles. Although he was released this week, there is little optimism
for liberalisation or the reversal of the increasingly
<
http://allafrica.com/stories/201208221071.html> repressive tendencies of
the TPLF.
Development, democracy and Desalegn
As it stands, there is a
<
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/world/africa/zenawi-exemplified-conflict-
between-american-interests-and-ideals.html?pagewanted=all> gulf between the
rhetoric of US foreign policy espousing "development, democracy and human
rights" and the reality on the ground. This is in part because rather than
encouraging the building of lasting institutions, US policy makers have
tended to cultivate paternalistic strongmen in the region. In an attempt to
maintain stability in Ethiopia, the US may be once again over-relying on the
leadership of a single individual.
From inside Ethiopia, what is perhaps needed is the establishment of a truly
federal political system. Strong central authority by the regime in Addis
Ababa has invariably come into conflict with the regions it has sought to
dominate and repression has followed. Conflict in Ethiopia has in large part
been caused by the state's inability to move beyond notions of ethnic
domination usually between Amharas and Tigrayans.
Federalism in a divided society like Ethiopia could work to balance and
stabilise different communities and religious groups, facilitate
reconstruction, and ensure the liberty of all. Whether Hailemariam Desalegn
is the man for this job remains to be seen, and even if he is, his ability
to affect Ethiopian political and social dynamics
<
http://allafrica.com/stories/201208280386.html> depends in large part on
powerful actors within and outside the country.
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Received on Fri Aug 31 2012 - 13:44:03 EDT
