Power scramble after premier's death puts fragile state on the edge
By Juma Kwayera
August 27, 2012 at 00:00 GMT+3
Governing Ethiopia People's Revolutionary and Democratic Front (EPRDF) faces
an uncertain future following the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
Ethnicity, as ever, is going to determine who takes over the reins of power.
A week after Zenawi's death was made public, the scramble for power has
intensified with the members of the politburo of EPRDF said to be slugging
it out, pointing to an imminent political turbulence or even a falling out.
At the centre of the ensuing power struggle is acting Prime Minister
Hailemariam Desalegn, his predecessor at the Foreign ministry and ambassador
to China Seyoum Mesfin and Zenawi's widow Azeb Mesfin, who had been tearing
into each other long before the fallen Prime Minister became indisposed.
There are also prominent political figures in the governing party Zenawi had
suppressed as he maintained a stronghold on power.
Smooth transition
Although the Mr Desalegn's ascent to power last week was almost smooth,
political embers have been smouldering in Zenawi's faction of the EPRDF, the
Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has also seen Berhane
Gabrecriticos, Dr Towdros Andenhom, Neway Gebraan and Azeb Mesfin, all
members of the governing politburo, join the fray to succeed Zenawi.
The other political parties that make up EPRDF are: Oromo People's
Democratic Organisation (OPDO), Ahmara National Democratic Movement (ANDM)
and The Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' (SNNP) party. ANDM and
OPDO are the majority, while SNNP is a recent addition to the coalition.
Zenawi's widow, Mesfin, who is a member of the executive committee of the
TPLF contested and won a parliamentary seat in the north during the
controversial 2010 elections as means of positioning herself to succeed her
husband.
Zenawi's succession has always been a thorny issue. According to Dr Ododa
Opiyo, infighting in Zenawi's government had on several occasions threatened
to bring the regime down as number of disgruntled allies grew.
Dr Opiyo, an expert on Horn of African conflicts and politics, says even
before he died, Zenawi had often worried about ouster.
"During this period, Zenawi was not only the chief executive officer of
administration, but was the law of the courts; he would make his wishes on
the law of the land in a matter of hours. His type of leadership intimidated
any opposition in Ethiopia. At the same time, the leadership from the ruling
party; the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic, remained fearful of
the reprisals Zenawi would mete out on internal opposition," says Dr Opiyo,
currently on secondment to the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom).
Endless infighting
To illustrate just how infighting has always been intense, Opiyo points to
how Zenawi had managed to pummel opposition in his party into total
submission.
As an example of how the fallen PM would not brook challenge, Opiyo says:
"Zenawi's former Defence minister Seeye Abraha and his former close
confidant, who planned the Eritrea-Ethiopia war was jailed for six years for
non-existing charges of corruption. When prime Minister Zenawi realised that
Foreign minister Mesfin was becoming too strong and a possible successor, he
demoted him and posted him to China as an ambassador."
Such was Ethiopian leadership that the exit of Zenawi has opened a new front
to serious competition for power, which might also see opposition seek to
reclaim their position in the country's political realm.
Zenawi's leadership was oppressive and intimidating, which is why Ethiopia's
allies in the West are worried that he has left a fragile country, one
likely to crumble and face internal fighting. Ethiopia is an important
player in international war on terrorism and Indian Ocean piracy.
Dr Mohammed Ali, an expert of on Ethiopian politics since the ouster of
dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam, says the power struggle in TPLF is expected
to determine if the governing EDPRF coalition will still hold after Zenawi's
death. He says his widow will be key to the succession battle.
"She can push and shove as she is highly energetic. Whatever happens is
expected to give the opposition an opportunity to enter the fray. At
present, the opposition is quiet as it has been clamped down under the
Terrorism Act in the same manner the media has been trampled upon," says Dr
Ali.
An American Congressman had told The Standard On Sunday in an interview that
the Prime Minister's demise would present a leadership challenge to eastern
Africa's most populous nation.
"The fact of the matter is Ethiopia is relatively stable politically and
economically. Ethiopia is not an easy country to rule. Ethiopia has also
been an important regional player under the leadership of the former Prime
Minister. Ethiopian peacekeeping forces played key role shortly after the
Rwandan genocide. In Sudan, Ethiopia is an important player," said the
Congressman, who requested anonymity lest his views are perceived as those
the Government of the congressional committee on Ethiopia he sits on.
Under the EPRDF regime, opposition and media were suppressed. Popular
musician like Teddy Afrah has spent spells in detention on trumped up
charges of murder, while a former High Court judge Birtukan Mideksa was
detained in controversial circumstances. Birtukan's decision to join a
political party to help bring political change and the rule of law landed
her in detention, from which she was released last year.
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Received on Mon Aug 27 2012 - 14:49:18 EDT
