Ethiopian succession battle may test US ally's stability
By William Davison
Published: August 24, 2012
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia - Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's death may
result in a succession battle that could test the stability of one of
Africa's fastest-growing economies and a key ally in the U.S.'s war against
al-Qaida.
The 57-year-old premier died Aug. 20 from an infection while recuperating
from an unspecified illness, according to the government. Meles died in
Brussels, European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly told reporters in the
Belgian capital Tuesday. Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn is
serving as acting prime minister.
Competition to succeed Meles may fracture the unity of the ruling Ethiopian
Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front and embolden opposition groups
frustrated by years of government suppression, said analysts including
Jennifer Cooke, director of the Africa Program at the Washington-based
Center for Strategic and International Studies. That may jeopardize a
state-driven program that generated average economic growth of 11 percent
over the past seven years, while placing at risk Ethiopia's role as a
peacekeeper in the Horn of Africa region.
"Meles has played such an outsized role in the country's leadership that
there's no obvious successor or power broker within the EPRDF who will now
take firm charge," Cooke said in an emailed response to questions.
Meles' administration mixed government spending on infrastructure like roads
and hydropower plants with investment by companies including Amsterdam-based
Heineken, the world's third-biggest brewer, and those owned by Saudi
billionaire Mohamed al-Amoudi to spur the economy. Growth in Africa's
biggest coffee-producing nation may slow to 6.5 percent in 2013 from 7
percent this year amid the global economic slowdown, according to the
International Monetary Fund.
Ethiopia under Meles also benefited economically from its partnership with
Western allies on security issues. It's helped fight insurgencies in
Somalia, where Meles sent troops for the second time in December to help
drive out al-Qaida-linked militants, and its forces patrol Abyei, which is
claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan. In 2011, the country was Africa's
biggest recipient of foreign aid, totaling $3.53 billion, according to the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she "admired the prime minister's
personal commitment to transforming Ethiopia's economy," and providing more
health and education to the country.
Meles came to power after building a coalition of rebel groups to overthrow
Mengistu Haile Mariam's Marxist military junta in 1991. Since then he has
consolidated power by purging potential rivals and promoting those loyal to
him. He also strengthened the authority of the ruling party by cracking down
on opposition parties and using counter-terrorism legislation to jail
reporters and dissenters.
"The current government's suppression of any kind of democratic process or
debate means that there are significant tensions and resentments within the
country that have had no outlet or expression," Cooke said. "If the ruling
coalition is distracted or weakened by infighting, opposition parties will
see an opportunity to press their case."
Potential successors in addition to Hailemariam include the State Minister
for Foreign Affairs Berhane Gebrekristos from Meles's Tigray People's
Liberation Front, or TPLF; Amhara Regional State President Ayalew Gobeze;
and Health Minister Tewodros Adhanom Gebreyesus, who is a TPLF executive
committee member, said Terrence Lyons, associate professor of conflict
resolution at George Mason University in Virginia.
The TPLF forms the core of the EPRDF coalition, which in 1994 ushered in a
constitution that divided Ethiopia into nine ethnically based federal
regions and two autonomous cities. Besides the TPLF, the Oromo and Amhara
communities and a grouping of smaller ethnic communities from the country's
south each have parties in the coalition. The Oromo make up 35 percent of
Ethiopia's population, the Amhara 27 percent and the Tigray 6 percent,
according to the State Department.
Hailemariam was Meles' chosen successor, Seeye Abraha, a former executive
committee member of the TPLF, turned political opponent, said in an emailed
response to questions. Hailemariam is deputy chairman of the EPRDF that
along with its allies controls all but two of the seats in the nation's
547-seat parliament. He is a Wolayta, one of three main ethnic groups in the
politically fragmented southern region.
Hailemariam may not "wield much power" because officials from the TPLF will
retain control of the security services and key ministries, said Michael
Woldemariam, an assistant professor in the Department of International
Relations at Boston University in Massachusetts.
Seeye, who served as defense minister from 1991 to 1995, was one of 12
individuals purged from the TPLF leadership in 2001 after criticizing Meles
for perceived weaknesses in his handling of a two-year border war with
Eritrea that ended in 2000 and cost 70,000 lives.
The next leader will "have to come from outside the TPLF" because of
Tigrayans' minority status, former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn
said in an e-mailed response to questions. "It is simply smart politics for
the EPRDF to share the top spot."
"Instability may occur if new splits emerge within the TPLF," Woldemariam
said in an e-mailed response to questions yesterday. "If the TPLF can retain
its unity and integrity, then I think a slide into instability is unlikely.
A split in its upper echelons would likely infect the EPRDF's other
coalition partners as TPLF factions vie for support."
A rupture in the Tigrayan group may also cause unrest in the security
services it controls, he said.
Several insurgent groups operate in Ethiopia, including the banned Oromo
Liberation Front, which withdrew from the government in 1993, and the Ogaden
National Liberation Front that fights for more autonomy for the
ethnic-Somali Ogadeni people.
Over the past 10 months, the government has also faced demonstrations by
Muslims against government interference in their community in Addis Ababa
and other towns. About a third of Ethiopia's 94 million people are Muslim,
according to the CIA World Factbook.
The regional importance of Ethiopia, Africa's second-most populous nation,
in fighting al-Qaeda makes the U.S. "deeply concerned at the prospect of a
destabilizing or uncertain transition in Ethiopia," Cooke said.
Ethiopia received $6.23 billion in assistance from the United States between
2000 and 2011, according to the State Department.
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Received on Fri Aug 24 2012 - 09:39:53 EDT
