Ethiopia: Death of Ethiopian Leader Meles Brings 'Opportunity for Peace'
By Carey L. Biron, 23 August 2012
The Ethiopian government has refuted claims that their is any form of
instability after the passing away of their prime minister, Meles Zenawi. (
Resource: <
http://allafrica.com/view/resource/main/main/id/00041186.html>
Ethiopia Denies Instability After Zenawi's Death
Washington - Following Monday's announcement of the death of long-time
Ethiopian leader Meles Zenawi, Ethiopian civil society leaders and Western
rights groups are characterising the turn of events as an opportunity to
heal decades of increasingly stark sectarianism.
Many are also pointing to the U.S. government's potential role as key.
"Meles's death has created an opportunity for peace in Ethiopia, meaning
that this transition should not be business as usual," Getachew Begashaw, a
professor of economics at Harper College here in the U.S., told IPS.
"This process needs to be something...that can put the country on the road
to national reconciliation. It is important for the United States to realise
that its long-term interests would be served best if we can resolve the
internal conflicts of Ethiopia."
The potential for sectarian violence has been a top concern for those
attempting to plan for the death of the Ethiopian leader, who had been sick
for several months. Meles ruled with an increasingly authoritarian fist for
more than two decades, and many worry that his absence could leave a
political vacuum.
Still undetermined is the impact that Meles's death will on ongoing
negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan, as well as in Somalia, talks in
which the Ethiopian leader has provided leadership. Currently, however, the
focus for many is on more immediate concerns.
"I am afraid that a missed opportunity at this crucial point will lead to
the total failure of the Ethiopian state," Begashaw said. "Once the
situation turns violent, it will be extremely difficult to turn around - we
will have another Somalia. And if Ethiopia were to fail, the whole region
would be massively affected."
For all the talk about Ethiopia's recent economic revival, many warn that
this development has yet to reach the vast majority of the country's
population. Instead, much of this wealth - and political power - has been
retained by the ruling party and, particularly, by the tiny Tigrayan
minority community to which Meles belonged.
Already Meles's deputy prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, has been put
forward to rule until elections can be held in 2015, although a meeting of
Parliament to make this move official, slated for Wednesday, was suddenly
called off.
No puppet
"Meles Zenawi's whole policy was based on short-term interest - what's good
for him, not what's good for his nation. Today, Ethiopia is more divided
today by ethnicity than ever, and that is his fault," Obang Metho, executive
director of the Solidarity Movement for a New Ethiopia, based here in
Washington, told IPS.
"The U.S. in particular used Meles as puppet. For the last 20 years, they've
put their eggs in one basket, and that basket is now gone. So, it's time to
start a new plan, one that supports the Ethiopian people and is based on
mutual national interest."
Metho and others particularly emphasise the role of the United States in the
upcoming transition. The two have a long and contested relationship, as
Washington has funnelled huge amounts of military and development aid to the
Meles regime, particularly following the start of the US-led "war on
terror".
Today, the United States continues to run unmanned aerial "drone" flights
out of a base in Ethiopia. The U.S. also continues to provide significant
humanitarian aid to Ethiopia, which currently brings in more foreign aid
than any other country in Africa.
"The United States must seize this opportunity to recalibrate its
relationship with Ethiopia and help to build strong, accountable
institutions and respect for the rule of law, lest it risk...a relationship
with yet another 'strongman' and depend on the luck of the draw over his
longevity," Amnesty International said in a statement Tuesday.
The International Crisis Group, in a report released Wednesday, similarly
called on the United States, in concert with the U.K. and E.U., to "seek to
play a significant role in preparing for and shaping the transition",
especially by working to strengthen capacity within the opposition.
While the initial U.S. response , including condolences from President
Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, merely commended Meles
for his role in strengthening Ethiopia's democracy and economy while also
noting his efforts in the civil war in Sudan, subsequent days have seen a
slight shift in tone.
"We have not been shy about expressing concern ... with regard to
journalists' freedom, human rights, etcetera," State Department spokesperson
Victoria Nuland said Wednesday. "We would always look for further
improvements that can strengthen the system and support for people across
Ethiopia."
Going together
Strengthening the opposition and loosening the reins on civil society
generally is particularly important, Begashaw said, in turning away from the
spectre of potential ethnic strife in a post-Meles Ethiopia.
He said the United States needs to play a role as a "credible peace broker
between the opposition and the ruling party", ensuring that the country's
politics open up, that political prisoners are released, and that
organisations outlawed by Meles on grounds of "terrorism" are reinstated.
"These groups must be given the legitimate right to peacefully to
participate in the political life of the country," Begashaw said. "We can
only have peace when we are trying to accommodate everyone, so long as they
are peaceful - and as far as I know, all opposition groups would like to
participate peacefully."
Doing so, he explained, will buy time, allowing civil-society leaders and
community opinion-makers to "go out and start talking to political
activists, encouraging them to give a chance to peaceful resolution rather
than armed conflict."
A dominant ruling party
Still, others suggest that the remnants of Meles's regime remain so strong
that there is little reason to expect an outbreak of violence anytime soon.
"The ruling party is so dominant that I seriously doubt that there will be
internal turmoil. They control 99 percent of the seats at the federal,
regional and local levels," a former U.S. official and Horn of Africa expert
told IPS on condition of anonymity.
"Look at the restructuring that has gone on in the past several years - the
removal of the old senior leadership, bringing in a new generation of
leaders, including the deputy prime minister. I think Meles knew how
important a smooth transition was and saw this as the process of handing
power to the next generation."
Metho hinted that incorporating the ruling regime could well prove to be an
important part of the opposition's strategy.
"We need to make the ruling minority realise that this is a new chapter: you
have nothing to be afraid of; there's room for you in the new Ethiopia," he
said. "The old system has to be torn down, but they can be part of this."
He continues: "We have an old proverb: If you want to go faster, go alone;
if you want to go further, go together. Now's the time to go together with
all Ethiopians."
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Received on Thu Aug 23 2012 - 18:46:34 EDT
