Ethiopia: Meles' Death Sparks Succession Planning As El Cid Rides Again
By Mike Jennings, 21 August 2012
analysis
The death of Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi was announced this morning,
following complications arising after a long illness. Yet for weeks now,
rumours have been flying around the internet that Zenawi had died in an
overseas hospital, and that this news was kept quiet whilst the fierce
succession battle took place.
Whether true or not (and it would certainly not be the only time in recent
months that the death of an African leader had been kept quiet until the
struggle for succession had been won), the political elite in Ethiopia has
almost certainly been seeking how to ensure a smooth transition since
Zenawi's last public appearance in mid-June.
There are a number of interesting questions that emerge from this, for
Ethiopia itself, for the international community, and for watchers of
African politics and leadership more widely.
Will the succession prove to be smooth and stable? The constitution says
parliament should choose the successor. But does anyone really expect this
weakened institution to be given that authority? The struggle has likely
already taken place and parliament will be asked to confirm that decision.
If it hasn't, this opens up real concerns over stability whilst a succession
battle takes place. Ethiopian growth may still be relatively strong, but it
is suffering from high inflation.
For most Ethiopians, high inflation is a worse curse than lower economic
growth, and this could foster social tensions. Tensions are growing between
the country's Muslim population (around one-third of the total) and state
authorities following a crackdown on Muslim protestors over the summer.
Could this provoke wider ethnic and religious tensions across the country?
How will the new prime minister deal with such tensions? Will there be an
opening up of the political space to the opposition following the
transition? Probably not. For there is not likely to be much real pressure
by external powers to address the democratic deficit with stability being
seen as the main priority.
The political elite in Ethiopia is not the only group with a vested interest
in an orderly succession. The international community has largely ignored,
or downplayed, the government's poor governance record due to Zenawi's
clever positioning of his regime as a major backer of the war against
radical Islamic violent movements (much as Museveni has done in Uganda,
which also successfully steered attention away from his own governance
record). Ethiopia's deep engagement in neighbouring Somalia means the global
north will be determined that the new government retains its commitment to
this effort, and as a result will be far less concerned about the democratic
credentials of the transition or the new leader
Finally, are we seeing the emergence of an El Cid policy in African
politics?* Only four months ago, the death of Malawian president Bingu wa
Mutharika was delayed for several days as the succession battle played out
in private. After months of rumours of his death, former Nigerian president
Yar-'Adua spoke by phone to the BBC to show he was still alive (although he
could not convince that he was still in effective power). Africa is not
alone in this, of course (official silence over the health of several Latin
American leaders springs to mind). But whilst leaders cling as much power to
themselves as possible, and seek to ensure no clear successor emerges who
might challenge them whilst they are still in power, El Cid will continue to
ride.
- El Cid was a Moorish leader in Medieval Spain. Legend has it that during a
siege of Valencia - during which El Cid died - his body was fitted with
armour and hoisted upon his horse in order to bolster the morale of his
troops.
Mike Jennings is Senior Lecturer in Development Studies at SOAS and Chair of
the Centre of African Studies.
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Received on Tue Aug 21 2012 - 09:57:23 EDT
