South Sudan raises a stink over oil and the disputed areas as
representatives of Juba and Khartoum meet in Addis Ababa for peace talks --
but Clinton clinches a deal, contends
<mailto:gnkrumah_at_ahram.org.eg?subject=Region%20::%20Sudanese%20glitches>
Gamal Nkrumah
9 - 15 August 2012
_____
Two blacks do not make a white, as United States Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton would have us believe. Sudan and South Sudan have been at
loggerheads since the latter gained independence in July 2011. There have
been flare-ups that have sometimes threatened to spread to neighbouring
states. In April, Sudan and South Sudan came close to full-scale war over
the oil-rich enclave of Abyei.
Now, however, the flames are licking closer to a full crisis once again. It
is also ineluctable that the two countries will eventually merge into one
country, whether on a federal or a confederate basis because they do have an
awful lot in common.
A new broom sweeps clean, but an old one knows where the dirt is, or so
contends Khartoum. Juba vehemently objects to such a synopsis. Still, Juba
and Khartoum reached a deal on Sunday over the long-running dispute over oil
payments, but have yet to iron out differences as to when they can resume
southern oil exports through Sudan's Red Sea ports. Landlocked South Sudan
produced 75 per cent of the total oil production of the former united Sudan.
South Sudan's lifeline is oil, and Khartoum eyes the oil wealth of South
Sudan enviously. And, it is against this backdrop that the two states
reluctantly signed an accord, presumably to share the oil riches more
equitably.
Clinton decided to ignore the delusional prophets of doom and put on a brave
face when she visited Juba this week. "This agreement reflects leadership
and a new spirit of compromise," she pontificated, like a preacher patting a
pitiful parishioner on his or her back. But her hosts were grateful for her
words of encouragement. "I am particularly proud of South Sudan," she
praised the SPLM authorities in Juba, irrespective of the fact that the
Addis Ababa deal has not actually been officially signed.
The Sudanese authorities have indicated that if they do not have security
guarantees, they will not sign the deal. The government of Sudanese
President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir wants to make sure that South Sudan
President Silva Kiir determines precisely and without prevarication how much
the South should pay Khartoum. The payment Sudan demands is levied to permit
the petroleum exports of South Sudan to pass through Sudanese territory to
reach refineries and ports on the Red Sea.
The Sudanese government is also conducting parallel talks with the Sudan
People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) which is affiliated to the
ruling party in Juba, the SPLM.
The Sudanese government's successive failures have proved fertile ground for
insurrectionists in the sprawling country's backwaters. There are many in
Khartoum who believe that Juba waits in the wings for the disintegration of
Sudan, ready to step in. there are many in Sudan who also yearn for the
unification of the country on a secular, non-religious and democratic basis.
They desire a country where Arab and non-Arab have equal citizenship rights.
The people of Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile and other marginalised
regions of Sudan also dream of a true democracy in the multi-ethnic country.
The new accord weighs yet another palliative instead of a cure for Sudan's
ills. South Sudan's economic prosperity will intensify political instability
in Sudan, an impoverished country that can ill-afford any further
aggravation from its southern neighbour.
The SPLM, and its northern counterpart, the SPLM-N, understand Khartoum's
agenda. Sudan wants to guarantee that the South will not instigate
insurgency in the North in exchange for safe passage of its petroleum
exports to the world through Sudanese Red Sea ports. Khartoum also insists
on a hefty charge for services rendered landlocked South Sudan.
Heading Khartoum's delegation to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa peace
talks is Sudan's Defence Minister Abdel-Rahim Mohamed Hussein, a tough
negotiator, and a military man who looks every inch the uncompromising
general. South Sudan's amiable Chief Negotiator Pagan Amum, in sharp
contrast to Khartoum's stubborn soldier, led Juba's team to the talks in
Addis Ababa.
"It is an agreement about all the matters, The issues that were outstanding
were charges for transportation, for processing, transit," explained former
South African president and African Union mediator Thabo Mbeki. The
Sudan-South Sudan talks took place under the auspices of the AU.
"The parties have agreed on all the financial arrangements regarding oil,"
Mbeki noted. The South agreed in principle to pay the North some $3 billion
in compensation for the loss of oil revenues. Juba likewise acceded to pay
$9 per barrel of oil pumped through one pipeline. It obviously took quite a
bit of arm-twisting from Clinton to ensure that the South concedes to the
North's demands.
The Sudanese government on Sunday announced a temporary cease-fire with the
insurgents in the restive provinces of Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Both of
these regions are politically sympathetic to the SPLM-N and are furious
about the political hegemony of the Arabised tribes of northern Sudan and
their monopolisation of power and decision-making in the corridors of power
in Khartoum.
The ethnic composition of the two states differs dramatically from the rest
of Sudan. Non-Arab peoples of the Nuba Mountains inhabit South Kordofan,
some of them are Muslim and others Christian, but they are looked upon
derisively by the Arabised tribes of Sudan. Similarly, the Ingessanna people
of Blue Nile are a distinctive non-Arab group with their own Gaam language
and unique culture.
Perhaps the Sudanese people, North and South, see political pessimism as a
pathological condition? It is viewed as a contagious sickness and
insurrection like clinical depression is in danger of spreading to the
impoverished, underdeveloped and economically deprived and politically
disfranchised backwater regions of Sudan.
Khartoum sees the SPLM, SPLM-N as the main instrument of contagion of this
transmittable disease. Juba and SPLM, on the other hand, believe the
intransigence of the Islamist government in Khartoum as the major source of
contamination.
*************************************************
Last ditch agreement on hold
Under pressure from the UN, Sudan and South Sudan have embarked on steps
towards resolving their oil stalemate, writes Asmaa El-Husseini
9 - 15 August 2012
_____
Due to unprecedented international pressure, Khartoum and Juba have reached
an agreement that may allow oil production to restart, giving a much-needed
boost to the flailing economies of both countries -- but much depends on
whether negotiators on both sides would be able to iron out thorny security
issues.
Kamal Obeid, a key figure in the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in
Sudan, says that the agreement in question remains "on hold", pending
further talks on security matters. He was referring to Khartoum's charges
that South Sudan was helping the rebels of South Kordofan, the Blue Nile and
Darfur. The latter have recently united in what is called the Sudanese
Revolutionary Front or the Kauda Alliance -- Kauda being a town in South
Kordofan.
Khartoum is said to have opened talks with one member group of the said
alliance; namely, the SPLM-North. Presidential Assistant Nafie Ali Nafie,
however, doesn't seem to think that these talks would be fruitful.
When asked about the talks with the rebels, Nafie told a gathering of youth
leaders that it was unlikely for Khartoum to make a deal with the
SPLM-North.
According to people who were present in this particular gathering, the youth
leaders criticised the government policies and called for immediate
decisions to revive the economy and consolidate security.
With both governments facing strong opposition at home, an agreement on oil
may be their only hope of survival. News of their agreement has been warmly
received by foreign diplomats, and some have called it a breakthrough in
relations.
But Khartoum and Juba, one has to keep in mind, only reached this agreement
after the UN threatened them, through Resolution 2046, with sanctions unless
they reach a deal.
The agreement is to last for three years. Oil is at the core of the conflict
which flared up between the two countries since the south seceded in July
2011.
Since the secession, oil production, which used to run at 0.5 million
barrels a day, dropped by 75 per cent. Khartoum consequently lost more than
85 per cent of its export revenues, while Juba saw 98 per cent of its entire
income evaporate. Since January 2012, oil production in the south has ground
to a complete halt.
Economic meltdown on both sides of the border offers a major motivation for
a deal. But the agreement will be viewed with suspicion by either side.
In Khartoum, critics will say that Juba may use the three-year deal to build
its own pipelines through other countries, and may also use the cash to fund
rebels in the north.
In Juba, critics object to the $3 billion compensation, which may be used to
boost Khartoum's military power.
Oil experts say that technical difficulties may impede the production of oil
for six more months or more, even if both sides abide by the agreement.
According to these expects, some oil wells have been improperly sealed, and
the pipelines have been filled with water to prevent mechanical damage.
Still, African mediators who facilitated the deal hope that the two capitals
will resolve their outstanding security differences by 22 September, the
deadline the UN set for the two sides to reach an agreement.
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Received on Fri Aug 10 2012 - 18:01:25 EDT
