NAIROBI Aug 10 (Reuters) - Kenya plans to hold its first election in March
since an eruption of fighting that marred the last vote five years ago. But
mounting problems are raising fears about whether the next vote in east
Africa's biggest economy will be fair and peaceful.
WAR CRIMES COURT
By far the biggest fear is whether two leading presidential hopefuls due to
face trial in April at the International Criminal Court (ICC) over crimes
against humanity will honour their summons a month after a general election.
The Hague-based court will put the two on trial for their alleged role in
violence that killed more than 1,200 people in 2007 after a disputed
presidential election.
Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, former finance and higher education
ministers respectively, and four others deny wrongdoing and have said they
will cooperate with the court.
However, analysts doubt they would agree to appear before the court if
elected in March.
Political uncertainty is being heightened further by rights groups which
have asked the High Court to stop Kenyatta and Ruto from running for the
presidency on the grounds that the charges should make them ineligible for
public office.
What to watch:
- Will the Kenyan courts bar them from running?
- Will Kenyatta and Ruto attend the trials?
ELECTIONS
Kenya's next election is set for March 4, 2013.
The coming polls have raised a host of concerns, including new corruption
scams, tribe-based political parties and a possible slowdown in tourism that
could stifle economic growth.
Kenya's political allegiances are largely shaped by tribal alliances rather
than ideology, and there are signs that rising ethnic tensions could lead to
new violence.
Over the past three decades, Kenya has had its lowest growth periods in or
just following election years, according to the World Bank. Growth is
officially seen at around 5 percent this year, up from 4.4 percent last
year.
The electoral commission is currently mired in a crisis over its decision to
abandon plans to introduce an electronic register of voters after the
tendering process descended into acrimony, raising fears of electoral fraud.
SEPARATIST MOVEMENT
A separatist group has threatened to boycott and disrupt voting if their
demand for secession of Kenya's Indian Ocean coastal strip is not met by
authorities in Nairobi. This has raised fears of violence in the famed
tourist haven.
President Mwai Kibaki has flatly rejected their demand.
The Kenyan High Court lifted a ban on the separatists, but the government
said it would appeal the decision and showed no immediate sign of softening
its stance toward the movement.
What to watch:
-How will the tension affect tourism on the coast?
SOMALIA
Kenya sent troops into Somalia last October to crush al Qaeda-linked al
Shabaab rebels, accusing them of attacks on its security forces, aid workers
and tourists inside Kenya. Al Shabaab has vowed to retaliate.
Kenya has since suffered simultaneous gun and grenade raids near the border
with Somalia, while others have targeted the capital and the coastal city of
Mombasa.
Repeated warnings of threats in Kenya by the U.S. embassy have heightened
risk ratings by key political analysts.
What to watch:
- Could further attacks deter tourists and investments? (Editing by Mark
Heinrich)
C Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved
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Received on Fri Aug 10 2012 - 16:42:44 EDT
