Ethiopia on tenterhooks as strongman Zenawi reportedly ill
By Juma Kwayera
August 08 2012 at 00:00 GMT+3
Ethiopians are holding their breath following reports that Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi is hospitalised in Belgium, with information about his health
status hushed lest it heightens political tension in a country that is
perpetually fragile.
Just as other countries in the Horn of Africa region, Ethiopian politics is
riddled with deep-seated ethnic hostilities, with the larger tribes, the
Amhara and Oromo, controlling economic instruments, while political power
vests in minority tribes. Zenawi comes from the minority Tigre in the north
and his deputy and Minister of Foreign Affairs Haile Mariam Desalegne comes
from the south.
The fractious nature of Ethiopian politics is a source of concern in the
West, especially US, which views Addis Ababa as an important ally in the war
against terrorism in the Horn of Africa, concerns about the political
tyranny not withstanding. Aware of the prime minister's failing health,
international organisations that have long attempted to reconcile hostile
Ethiopian communities tried in February to work out a power sharing deal,
but it did not materialise owing to a power struggle in the ruling Ethiopian
People's Revolutionary Front (EPDRF). The talks, known as Ginbot-7 were
intended to bring the separatist Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Unity for
Democracy and Justice Party (UDJ) led by prodemocracy campaigner and former
political detainee Birtukan Midekssa, now exiled in the US.
Political conflict
According to the Ethiopian constitution, the Prime Minister enjoys absolute
power, while the deputy, an appointee of the PM, exercises delegated power
only. The position of the president, currently held by Girma Wolde-Giorgis
(an Amharic), is largely ceremonial as it lacks executive powers.
According the Ethiopian power structure, Zenawi heads the government, chairs
the Cabinet, security and the military. Accordingly, his absence creates a
power void, which not even the deputy prime minister can fill in the
prevailing circumstances without eliciting the revulsion of the politburo.
Political observers say Ethiopia is at a crossroads, with Dr Mohammed Ali,
an expert on Horn of Africa politics and conflicts, saying it is not
explicitly clear on the transfer of power in the event the office the prime
minister falls vacant.
"The constitution does state whether the deputy prime minister can succeed
the president. In the Ethiopian government structure the deputy prime
minister does not have a job description. Ordinarily, he is supposed to
exercise executive power, but Zenawi made sure that all power is
concentrated in his hands for fear of ouster," says Dr Ali.
He foresees a constitutional crisis in the coming days, an eventuality with
the potential of touching off a fresh round political conflict.
The prime minister is elected by parliament, after which he is charged with
the task of picking other senior government officials. The cronyism and
nepotism that permeates all strata of government is expected to explode if
the Prime Minister's long absence begins to take a toll on the management of
public affairs, which he controls whimsically.
EPRDP is an amalgamation of ethnic-based political organisations that
converged following the ouster of former dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam, now
exiled in Zimbabwe since 1991 when he was forced out of power. EPRDP is made
up of Tigre People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Oromo People's Democratic
Organisation (OPDO), Amharic National Democratic Movement (ANDM) and
Southern National and Nationalists Party (SNNP).
TPLF and ANDM, by virtue of their ethnic composition - the former is
predominantly Tigre of the north, while ANDM is Amharic, the largest tribe
in Ethiopia - are the major partners in EPDRF, while SNNP is a late comer in
the power arrangement.
However, the possibility of a smooth transfer of power is being undermined
by reports of a power struggle in TPLF between Berhane Gabrecriticos, Dr
Towdros Andenhom and Neway Gebraab. The infighting has also sucked First
Lady Azeb Mesfin, who won a constituency in the north in the 2011 elections.
Mesfin, known as the power behind the throne has a reputation of influencing
her husband's policy decisions, which has positioned her strategically to
assume the reins of power from the ailing PM.
Important strides
She is a member of TPLF central committee, where her forceful nature gives
the impression of highly energetic.
In an assessment of shifting power balance, Dr Opiyo Ododa, an expert on
regional security and politics says: "Zenawi's leadership is oppressive and
intimidating. He leads a fragile country, one likely to crumble and face
internal fighting."
Dr Ododa observes that the current set up has the ingredients for internal
problems expected to preoccupy the next leadership in Ethiopia and reduce
its role in sub-regional politics.
"Stability within a country determines how a country's external policy is
projected. Zenawi for a long time preoccupied his military with fighting
externally - Eritrea and Somalia. Now Ethiopia's military excursions cannot
continue because Ethiopia will be having leadership and succession problems
internally to deal with."
A US congressman interviewed by The Standard on Sunday on the unfolding
situation has different views. The congressman, one of few in the US
Congress who specialises in Ethiopian affairs appreciates the complex nature
of the country's politics and vicious ethnic rivalries and argues
circumstances created Zenawi.
"In politics, while more progress is needed, it is important to point out
that Ethiopia held multiple elections local, regional and national over the
past two decades. Indeed, the outcome of the last election does not suggest
that the country has become more democratic. In fact, I said in my testimony
before Congress that the country might be moving toward a one party state,"
he told The Standard on Sunday.
He however, lauds Zenawi for holding together, albeit with an iron-fist, a
country prone to disintegration.
He says: "Regardless of what his critics say, one cannot deny the fact that
he has made important contributions. Under the leadership of the PM,
Ethiopia has made important progress in the education and health-care
sectors among others."
The US prefers EPRDF reaches out to the opposition, especially in the Ogaden
region, which has waged secession war.
"The ruling EPRDF must also be tolerant of dissent and allow human rights
and civil society groups to function unhindered. They should also be more
tolerant of the free press. The most important issue here is to ask if
Ethiopia is ready and able to move to the next phase. Will chaos take over
in the absence of the PM? Is there going to be a constitutional and smooth
transition for the next leader? The answer is yes," avers the Congressman.
The possibility of smooth power transfer is there, he says, pointing to the
power structure Zenawi has been putting in lace albeit piecemeal.
"The leadership changes made over the past several years were made with this
transition in mind. If anything were to happen tomorrow, the deputy prime
minister will take over, as acting and the party will then choose its
candidate for approval by parliament. The ruling party controls 99 per cent
of the seats. The danger is if elements within the ruling party select a
candidate seen by others as radical, partisan... and also a candidate other
than the deputy prime minister," he argues.
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Received on Wed Aug 08 2012 - 15:23:46 EDT
