Ethiopia and Eritrea: Rising Tensions Amid New Opportunities for Engagement
by <
http://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/directory/182512> Jason Mosley,
Associate Fellow, Africa Programme
Friday 21 July 2012
The latest report from the United Nations Monitoring Group on Somalia and
Eritrea has stirred tensions between Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia.
Eritrea has seized on a selective reading of the report to call for the
lifting of UN imposed sanctions, a call already rebuffed by the Monitoring
Group's Coordinator. The diplomatic fallout is likely to continue as
Ethiopia and its allies push for continued (or tightened) sanctions on
Eritrea.
It is a sensitive time in the Horn of Africa. Tensions are rising along the
region's main political and security fault-line between Ethiopia and
Eritrea. Ethiopia's government has taken an increasingly bellicose tone
towards its former province, perhaps signaling an increased willingness to
push more actively for regime change in Eritrea. This would have major but
uncertain security consequences across the region.
In January, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of being behind an attack by ethnic
Afar gunmen on a tourist convoy travelling in Ethiopia's north-western
region. The attackers were most likely criminally motivated. However, given
that the Afar people range across the Ethiopia-Eritrea-Djibouti border area,
the attack significantly worsened Ethiopia-Eritrea relations. In March,
Ethiopia staged raids across the Eritrean border - the most significant
military activity along the border since 2000. Ethiopia said it was
targeting Eritrean-sponsored training camps for Afar militants. Ethiopia's
government may have hoped to trigger a reaction from their Eritrean
counterparts, but there was no retaliation.
Long History
Successive governments in Addis Ababa have been challenged with ensuring
Ethiopian security in the context of a volatile regional security landscape.
The last two decades have seen civil wars in Somalia and Sudan, as well as
the 1998-2000 border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Since 2002, lingering
animosity between Ethiopia and Eritrea has contributed to regional tensions,
as both governments have sought to undermine the other's interests, such as
by sponsoring proxy militia in each other's territory, and in Somalia.
Ethiopia has successfully exploited its important geo-strategic position to
ensure that Eritrea remains isolated, within the region and internationally.
Ethiopia's failure to abide by the terms of the binding arbitration over the
two countries' border delineation and demarcation led to the current
impasse. Eritrea's poor diplomatic engagement has not helped its position,
although it could benefit, in principle, from holding the legal high ground
in the decade-long stalemate with Ethiopia. In practice however, the African
Union (AU) and the Horn of Africa's regional grouping, the Intergovernmental
Authority on Development (IGAD), have fairly consistently followed
Ethiopia's lead in applying pressure on Eritrea, widely portrayed as a
regional spoiler.
Ethiopia's Strains
The government in Addis Ababa faces domestic resentment as a result of the
border war, which triggered a split in Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's Tigray
People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF is the core of the ruling
Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The purge which
followed the TPLF split has seen power increasingly concentrated in the
hands of Meles and his senior advisors, and more broadly, political space
has tightened since 2005. In the 2010 elections, opposition parties had
their appeals rejected after results saw their representation reduced to
just 1 of 547 parliamentary seats. Restrictions on the media and
non-governmental organizations have also increased. The government has
utilized its dominance of the media, especially radio, to weave a narrative
for public consumption of a nation under attack, with the EPRDF defending
Ethiopian interests in the region.
Eritrea's Isolation
Eritrea's autocratic government was targeted by UN sanctions in late 2009,
in response to providing assistance to Al-Shabaab in Somalia. However in
2010 and 2011, the government made a concerted effort to improve its
international engagement. It reopened its mission to the AU headquarters in
2011 but came under pressure as a result of allegations, mainly from
Ethiopia, that there was an Eritrean plot to bomb the AU's January summit.
So far, sanctions have been weaker than Ethiopia had hoped for. Moreover,
they have not extended to Eritrea's mining sector, revenue from which has
eased the impact of its isolation.
An Opportunity?
Although tensions are arguably at their highest level in a decade,
developments in Ethiopia and Eritrea and current shifts in regional security
may still signal an opportunity for renewed engagement. Security dynamics in
southern-central Somalia have shifted in the last year, and Ethiopia and
Eritrea are no longer the only external actors. Al-Shabaab has suffered
important military losses, which may leave enough space for international
diplomatic engagement on the Ethiopia-Eritrea issue. International players
should take the opportunity to pressure the two countries to resolve
outstanding border issues and to unblock their diplomatic and security
stalemate.
Eritrea's fiscal position is improving as its mining sector starts to
generate revenue. This makes the country slightly less vulnerable to an
Ethiopia-led isolation. Eritrea's government could be receptive to a
well-timed reengagement with the international community, if this were seen
to be accompanied by pressure on Ethiopia to abide by the 2002 arbitration
decision. More quiet forms of diplomacy are needed, however, as both sides
have already staked their public positions quite strongly.
Finally, rumours are circulating about Meles's health after he missed a
recent AU Summit. These echo similar reports alleging the death of Isaias
Afewerki, the President of Eritrea, earlier in the year, which turned out to
be false. Whether he has a serious illness remains to be seen, but it could
well be that the leadership structures in Addis Ababa are in for a shift -
creating risks, but also potential opportunities for engagement.
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Received on Sat Jul 21 2012 - 18:26:16 EDT
