ANALYSIS-Egyptian leader looks abroad to win influence at home
Thu Jul 19, 2012 7:27pm GMT
* Mursi tries to entrench his authority
* Due to meet Obama in New York in September
* Army still dominates foreign policy
* Control over national security its trump card
By Tom Pfeiffer
CAIRO, July 19 (Reuters) - An early diplomatic offensive by Egypt's new
Islamist president makes it harder for an army-led establishment to portray
him on the international stage as a threat to foreign powers.
At home though, it may do little to curb the influence of the generals and
help Mursi assert himself as head of state.
Egypt's long-standing allies Saudi Arabia and the United States are
unwilling to challenge the army's role as self-appointed protector of Egypt,
which it uses to justify continued control over national security and a
future constitution.
Mursi has the first real popular mandate in Egypt's history yet the army has
kept the power to veto any law he passes after dissolving a parliament
dominated by his allies in the Muslim Brotherhood, citing a court ruling.
In an apparent swipe at the Brotherhood during a visit to Egypt by U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Egypt's top general, Field Marshal
Hussein Tantawi, said the army would not allow a "specific group" to
dominate Egypt.
Clinton urged a swift move to accountable government after meeting the new
president and said the U.S. supported the army's return to a "purely
national security role". Images of her chatting with Mursi were relayed
widely on television.
But Clinton's visit also included meetings with women's representatives and
Christian groups who fear their rights could be eroded if Islamists take
full control via the ballot box.
She held a meeting with Tantawi that was more low-key than her earlier
encounter with Mursi, but the order of ceremonies may say more about
official protocol than any real change in the pecking order.
For now, Mursi may still be too weak, and the Brotherhood too untested, for
Washington to bring decisive pressure to bear on the generals on his behalf.
"Mursi is trying to use foreign support, to the extent it is available, for
a transition to a more democratic polity to enhance his powers and those of
the Brotherhood," said Kamran Bokhari, vice president for the Middle East
and South Asia at Stratfor.
But he said the military leadership remained a partner of choice for the
outside world, "partly because of longstanding relations and partly because
of U.S. uncertainty over the Brotherhood coming to power".
SAUDI OVERTURES
Mursi seemed to be doing his best to have it otherwise on a visit last week
to U.S. ally and regional power Saudi Arabia, whose monarchy looked on with
unease last year as popular uprisings spread through the region.
While sharing similar ideology to the conservative Saudi monarchy, the
Brotherhood has a popular appeal that some perceive as a threat to the
authority of the Saudi government.
Mursi, surely anxious to keep vital Saudi financial aid flowing into Egypt's
depleted state coffers after he took office, did his best to mend the
Brotherhood's strained ties with the oil-rich kingdom.
"Saudi Arabia is the home to the Two Holy Mosques and the sponsor of the
moderate Sunni Islamic project and Egypt is the protector of this project.
Between the sponsor and the protector there are bonds of family and
marriage," he said in comments carried by Egypt's state news agency MENA.
A lavish reception put on for Mursi suggested the Saudis were also trying to
lay past tensions to rest.
Egypt's army-backed government has, if anything, shown more willingness than
the Brotherhood to modify a Mubarak-era foreign policy that fostered warm
ties with Riyadh and Washington.
In late December, police carried out raids on U.S.-funded non-governmental
organisations working to promote democracy, sparking Egypt's worst row with
Washington in years.
The case dragged on for weeks until American and other foreign NGO workers
charged with illegal funding of local rights groups were allowed to leave
the country. Their trial continues.
LEVERAGE
After Mubarak's overthrow, the government also signalled an interest in
renewing ties with Saudi Arabia's regional adversary Iran that were severed
more than 30 years ago.
Mursi, in contrast, said last month he would sue an Iranian news agency
after it quoted him as saying he was interested in restoring relations with
Tehran. Mursi aides said the interview was a fabrication.
The NGO case and the brief overtures to Iran show the military, which
receives $1.3 billion a year in U.S. aid, feels it has leverage enough not
to be cajoled by foreign governments.
The army's trump card is its claim over national security, of which Egypt's
1979 peace treaty with Israel is the bedrock.
Mursi is pledging to respect Egypt's international accords but the
Brotherhood has a history of hostile rhetoric towards Egypt's Jewish
neighbour that makes it easy for opponents to portray the movement's ascent
to power as a risk to peace.
On the eve of Mursi's victory, the army decreed that the president could not
declare war without its approval.
"We already know Clinton has authorised the military to be the primary agent
of security," said Laleh Khalili, senior politics lecturer at the University
of London.
"And given the increasing international isolation of Israel, I very much
doubt that the U.S. administration would want to endanger the Camp David
deal ... at this moment."
The United States has engaged with the Brotherhood since Mubarak's
overthrow, receiving delegations from the movement in Washington and giving
it a warm welcome at policy forums.
U.S. President Barack Obama invited Mursi this month to meet him at the
United Nations in New York in September.
For now, Mursi must form a viable government and engage with a bureaucracy
still full of figures from Mubarak's three decades in power who harbour an
ingrained suspicion of the Brotherhood.
"If the U.S. presses ahead with supporting real democracy in Egypt, the
message will be clear for the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces," said
Hassan Nafaa, a political analyst. "But I'm not sure that this will be of
any help to Mursi." (Additional reporting by Tamim Elyan; Editing by Alison
Williams)
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Received on Thu Jul 19 2012 - 18:27:45 EDT
