Sudan, South Sudan Resume Talks Amid Doubts for Long-term Success
By <
http://www.ipsnews.net/author/carey-l-biron/> Carey L. Biron
<
http://www.ipsnews.net/reprinting-articles/> Reprint |
WASHINGTON, Jul 17 2012 (IPS) - Ahead of an Aug. 2 deadline, the leaders of
Sudan and South Sudan over the weekend engaged in their first direct talks
since hostilities spiked in late April.
But on Monday, observers here in Washington warned that the framework for
the talks remains too narrow, threatening to continue a decades-long trend
of ineffectual agreements in Sudan that fail to address underlying issues of
governance in Khartoum and marginalisation elsewhere.
"A deal is still possible, because the (Khartoum) government is cornered.
This could affect the situation for a while, but it would be a stopgap
measure," Omer Ismail, an activist born in Darfur, said at a panel
discussion in Washington on Monday.
"But that is not going to help the problem of the two Sudans in the long
run, due to the difference in view between the north and south - between a
country that is trying to become a democratic part of the world community,
versus a country that is trying to be more fundamentalist."
On Saturday, little over a year after South Sudan achieved its independence,
Presidents Omar Al Bashir and Salva Kiir met in Addis Ababa on the sidelines
of a summit of the African Union Peace and Security Council, which both
addressed earlier in the day.
While little is publicly known of the substance of the hour-long meeting,
news reports suggested that the two presidents emerged smiling and shaking
hands. In the eyes of many, this marked a significant turnaround since the
two countries almost went to war over a disputed oil field in April.
South Sudan had already cut off critical oil production in January, a move
that heavily impacted on revenue streams for both the new government in Juba
and that in Khartoum.
The strained relationship has been further exacerbated by ongoing charges
that South Sudan is aiding rebel groups in several areas in Sudan. The
Khartoum government stands accused of having stepped up the shelling and
bombing of civilians, violence that has resulted in hundreds of thousands of
refugees flooding into South Sudan in recent months, overwhelming both the
fragile new government and international humanitarian efforts.
Saturday's meeting came the same day that an official African Union
<
http://au.int/en/sites/default/files/auc%20psc%20report%20Sudan-South%20Sud
an%2014%2007%202012.pdf> report characterised progress in the rapprochement
between Sudan and South Sudan since April as "slow and uneven" and noted the
"looming deadline" of Aug. 2, a deadline initially proposed by the African
Union and subsequently adopted by the United Nations Security Council.
If the two sides are unable to come to agreement on a host of outstanding
issues by that date, Security Council-backed sanctions are set to kick in on
both countries. The Security Council has already noted its concern over the
stuttering peace talks.
According to media reports from Addis Ababa on Saturday, President Kiir's
chief negotiator and general-secretary of the ruling Sudan People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM), Pagan Amum, said that the two presidents had
"instructed their negotiating teams to expedite negotiations".
Deal of desperation
Recent weeks have seen a rash of public protests in Sudan, ostensibly over
economic difficulties - a situation that Omer Ismail says is the Khartoum
government's own making.
Further, pointing to a recent uptick in public actions by the Sudanese trade
unions, Ismail broaches the topic on an increasing number of Sudan watchers'
minds. "It should not be taboo to call for regime change: we need regime
change in Sudan, for the Sudanese people to live in peace and for Sudan's
neighbours to live in peace," he says.
Although the appetite on the part of the international community - and
certainly the United States - to directly assist in toppling President
Bashir is currently very low, there is a general sense that Bashir is on his
way out.
According to Francis Deng, a former Sudan diplomat and currently U.N.
special advisor on the prevention of genocide, the failure to address
grievances in the south has long been the underlying cause for changes of
regime in Khartoum.
"If (the Bashir) regime had been wiser, now that the issue of the south has
been dealt with, it would have done what it could to address the grievances
of all the marginalised groups that are not in the south, because all these
are interlinked," Deng said at the panel discussion here on Monday.
Today, President Bashir's weakened standing is almost certainly pushing him
towards re-engagement with the south.
"There's a hint of desperation in both quarters at this juncture that,
coupled with the Security Council deadline, might actually yield some kind
of temporary deal," John Prendergast, a co-founder of the Enough Project, an
anti-genocide advocacy group and sponsor of Monday's panel discussion, said
in Washington.
"But unless and until there is some mechanism or negotiations framework that
addresses the internal issues in Sudan in a comprehensive way - something
that jointly accommodates the aspirations of all of those groups that have
been fighting against the Khartoum government - it will never be
sustainable."
Prendergast is excoriating in his assessment of the African Union
negotiation team headed by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.
"Those tasked with the negotiations have not imagined the comprehensive
approach that is necessary to actually resolve the conflict," Prendergast
says.
"They need to expand their effort and recognise that there are multiple
issues of governance that need to be addressed. Otherwise, any agreement
will be another example of people signing deals and then walking away."
Prendergast says that this type of approach to the problems in Sudan - a
"stovepipe" type of "talks only" mediation - have characterised the
international community's approach for the full 23 years of President
Bashir's rule.
Instead, the Enough Project suggests a dual set of negotiations, one on the
cross-border problems between Sudan and South Sudan (as is already taking
place) and another focused on issues within Sudan itself, where many suggest
that a massive civil war is unfolding.
To that, Prendergast adds a third negotiations track focused on human
rights, by ramping up international efforts to support Sudan's opposition
and civil society. He also suggests creating real consequences for human
rights violations.
"If the Aug. 2 deadline comes and goes, let's ensure the imposition of
Security Council sanctions as promised," he says. "If they miss that
deadline, that's a catalyst to try to create some kind of consequences for
abuses."
------------[ Sent via the dehai-wn mailing list by dehai.org]--------------
Received on Tue Jul 17 2012 - 14:51:55 EDT
